Beijing and Shanghai have made a move! Concerted efforts to rescue the market

Click on the left side of the "link" <<< to download the Hexun Finance APP, receive Hexun Plus members for free, and read the market-wide investment dry goods: 8 major financial columns, exclusive market interpretation of the latest and hottest information, and grasp the market investment trend one step ahead.

Following Shenzhen's reduction of the down payment ratio and optimization of the identification standards for ordinary houses in November, on December 14, Beijing and Shanghai successively optimized the identification standards for ordinary houses, reduced the down payment ratio, and lowered the lower limit of mortgage interest rates.

Industry insiders pointed out that the Beijing-Shanghai policy optimization efforts are larger, involving a wide range of people, from the reduction of the cost of housing and the threshold of housing purchases, in addition to the purchase restriction policy, the policy is basically in place.

Beijing and Shanghai released a good move on the same day

On December 14, Beijing and Shanghai issued a notice announcing the adjustment of the down payment ratio for one and two houses. This is the second time that the real estate policy has been adjusted after the two places successively implemented the policy of "recognising housing but not recognising loans" on September 1 this year.

According to the new policies of the two places, the down payment ratio for one house has been reduced to 30%, and the down payment ratio for second homes has been reduced to 40%. Lowering the down payment ratio directly lowers the capital threshold for residents to buy houses, which can better meet everyone's housing needs.

In terms of interest rates, Beijing and Shanghai have adjusted the lower limit of the mortgage interest rate policy at the same time, and both have implemented differentiated new requirements. Outside of Beijing's six districts and six districts in Shanghai, including Jiading, there are more favorable interest rates than in the central city, which means that the cost of borrowing to buy a house in these areas will be lower.

Taking a loan of 2 million yuan as an example, the monthly repayment amount will be reduced from 11,984.95 yuan to 11,402.35 yuan, a decrease of 582.6 yuan per month, and the monthly repayment amount will be reduced from 11,044.07 yuan to 10,015.22 yuan, according to the calculation of the repayment rate from 5.25% to 4.4% for the second house in Jiading and other areas in Shanghai for 30 years, the monthly repayment amount will be reduced from 11,044.07 yuan to 10,015.22 yuan, a decrease of about 1,029 yuan.

In addition, Beijing has extended the loan period from 25 years to 30 years, which is conducive to reducing the monthly repayment pressure of home buyers. Taking a loan of 2 million yuan as an example, the interest rate is calculated at 4.75%, and after the loan period is extended, the monthly repayment amount will be reduced from 11,402.35 yuan to 10,432.95 yuan, a monthly decrease of 969.4 yuan.

The new policies in Beijing and Shanghai not only put forward new requirements for down payments and interest rates for house purchases, but also adjusted the criteria for identifying ordinary residences.

The biggest difference between Beijing's new regulations and the previous ones is the price. Previously, according to the different price standards of the fifth and sixth ring roads, it was decided whether your house was an ordinary house or a non-ordinary house. Now, in the new policy, the unit price standard of each ring road has been significantly increased, and there is no need to look at the total price as before.

For example, the down payment for housing outside the six districts of Beijing will be reduced from 4 million yuan to 2 million yuan, and the down payment for housing in areas such as Jiading in Shanghai will be reduced from 3.5 million yuan to 2 million yuan.

This means that the improved family sells small and buys big, and will not be hurt by mistake because of the total price. According to Beijing's forecast, after the implementation of the new standards, the number of commercial houses that can be identified as ordinary residential buildings in the market will increase from about 30% in the past to about 70%. Like Beijing, Shanghai has also adjusted the standard of ordinary houses, so that more buyers can enjoy such incentives as VAT exemption.

It is worth noting that Beijing and Shanghai have been consistent in this policy adjustment, that is, they have relaxed the criteria for identifying ordinary residences, and both have lowered the down payment ratio for the first and second homes. It should also be noted that the minimum down payment ratio (50%) for second homes in Shanghai is 10% higher than that in Beijing, but the down payment ratio for second homes in the five major new cities and new districts in the periphery is lower, which means that Shanghai wants to direct demand from the central area to the periphery, which also means that the periphery is the new driving force for Shanghai's economic growth, and Beijing is obviously under less pressure in this regard.

Why is there such a strong release at this time?

Li Yujia, chief researcher at the Housing Policy Research Center of the Guangdong Provincial Urban Planning Institute, pointed out that first-tier cities are more sensitive to regulatory policies, and Beijing and Shanghai are more sensitive. Traditionally speaking, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are relatively tolerant in regulation and control, and generally precede Beijing and Shanghai in issuing policies. This time is the same, when the risk prevention, the stabilization of real estate has risen to a high degree of urgency, Beijing and Shanghai have also loosened the policy, there is a very important signal significance, which means that the risk and stability orientation has risen to a very high height, and the policy of administrative intervention needs to be fully withdrawn.

The background of the introduction of the new policy is the recent acceleration of the decline in housing prices in key cities, led by first-tier cities. According to the data of the Bureau of Statistics, in November, housing prices fell in 99 cities in 100 cities, and 64 cities in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell in October, all of which hit a new high in stages, the latter hit a new high since 2014. In October, data from 70 cities showed that first-tier cities led the decline, and this trend may also be in November. In addition, it is clear that a cycle of price reductions for new and second-hand houses has been formed, and it is expected to deteriorate sharply.

At the same time, Li Yujia pointed out that the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference have made it clear that risks in key industries should be prevented and resolved. The most important of these is the real estate risk, the decline in real estate prices and the weakening of expectations, directly led to a significant decline in the sales of commercial housing, although the recent second-hand housing transactions because of the obvious decline in prices and promote the growth of transactions, but the new houses are obviously falling, which is very unfavorable to alleviate the real estate capital chain. At the same time, the important meeting also clearly put forward the need to stabilize expectations and stabilize growth policies.

In addition, he believes that the recent risk contagion has exceeded the expectations of the management, which is highlighted by the tight capital chain of stable operating enterprises or state-owned enterprises such as Vanke Gemdale COSCO, and there is an urgent need to cut the chain of risk contagion from both ends of supply and demand. Including three not less than and white lists, but also including the demand side to promote the recovery. Among them, the demand side promotes the recovery of the most important, which is the hematopoietic function. Only when the self-hematopoietic function of the real estate enterprise is restored, the external blood transfusion such as the three not less than the white list can be restored, and the risk can be controlled to continue to spread, and the possibility of systemic risk can be controlled.

"Under the new situation of adapting to the major changes in the supply and demand relationship of the real estate market, Beijing and Shanghai have introduced favorable policies, which are also in line with market expectations, which are conducive to promoting the release of rigid demand and improved housing demand, especially the demand for two sets of improved housing, and will bring positive guidance to the Beijing and Shanghai real estate market and even the national market sentiment. Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Index Research Institute, analyzed.

Linghexun Plus members, watch more exclusive content for free: 8 major financial columns, exclusive market interpretation of the latest and hottest information, and grasp the market investment trend one step faster.