Valuations are down, booms are up, battery ETF (561910) prices hit a record low, institutions: a rebound or imminent
On December 14, the two markets fluctuated and weakened. The battery ETF (561910) closed down 0.65%, hitting another record low intraday. CATL hit a new intraday low for the year, and its share price approached its March 2021 low. Guoxuan Hi-Tech, German Nano, and Enjie led the decline. The fund has received funds to buy the bottom against the market, and has previously increased its position for 3 consecutive days, and its share has expanded by nearly 140% during the year, leading the ETF with the same target.
Image source: Wind
In terms of valuation, CS Battery's current price-to-earnings ratio is 18.42 times, which is at the freezing point of the 0% quantile in the past 10 years, and a rebound may be imminent.
Image source: Wind
[The loading volume of power batteries continues to increase high]
According to the data, from January to November this year, the mainland new energy vehicle market sold about 2.733 million units, a year-on-year increase of 178.3%. Driven by policy support and market demand, the new energy vehicle industry has entered a stage of rapid development, and the market demand for power batteries, as the core components of new energy vehicles, has also risen. The installed volume of power batteries in mainland China showed a continuous upward trend from January to November, with a year-on-year increase of 168.9%.
[How do you view the current performance of the lithium battery industry chain?]
According to the analysis of the agency, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached 30% In the past few years, the overall planned production capacity in the rapid development of the industry is very large, with the continuous landing of new production capacity, the price of industrial chain continues to fall, and the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has fallen to about 100,000 (futures prices fluctuate greater), and the production cost and lithium are linked to a relatively large battery material link in the process of price fluctuations are facing greater inventory management difficulties and financial impairment pressure, and the superimposed industry competition has intensified, resulting in a price warFrom the perspective of the new model cycle of electric vehicles, high-voltage fast charging and intelligent upgrading are important trends, lithium carbonate price reduction brings about a decline in battery costs, and the update of intelligent driving hardware solutions and the improvement of algorithms will also bring about cost reduction, and the price of intelligent driving-related models is expected to sink further, and next year, fast charging and intelligent driving-related models are expected to drive the penetration of electric vehicles to further increase, and the demand side is still supported. Changes in capacity planning, as well as marginal changes in overseas trade-related policies, with the gradual stabilization of upstream prices and narrowing of fluctuations, the production and procurement of the industrial chain is expected to gradually stabilize, and the bottom signal of midstream material profitability is expected to gradually become clear after the industry has experienced clearing, and the valuation is currently continuing to decline, and the rebound may be imminent.
The CSI Battery Theme Index tracked by the Battery ETF (561910) covers battery manufacturing, core materials, lithium battery equipment, and energy storage inverters. From the perspective of composition, the CS battery index is more than 7% weighted by the concept of new energy vehicles, and from the perspective of industry, the CS battery index focuses more on the core part of the industry and has higher elastic characteristics, providing investors with a favorable tool for convenient configuration of power battery + energy storage potential market. OTC investors can intervene through the Feeder Fund (Class A: 016019; Class C: 016020).