Interview with Zhang Yongjun, Deputy Chief Economist of China Center for International Economic Exchanges: Seek progress while maintaining stability, and promote the economy to achieve effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth

From December 11 to 12, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing, comprehensively summarizing the economic work in 2023, deeply analyzing the current economic situation, and systematically deploying the economic work in 2024. Subsequently, at the "2023-2024 China Economic Annual Conference" hosted by the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, focusing on "focusing on enhancing the endogenous driving force of development and solidly promoting high-quality development", a number of authoritative departments interpreted the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the key tasks of next year's economic work.

At the meeting, Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the Central Finance Office in charge of daily work and director of the Central Agricultural Office, said that to strengthen and improve macroeconomic regulation and control, we must persist in seeking progress while maintaining stability, promote stability with progress, and establish first and then break down. Han Wenxiu pointed out that to establish first and then break down is to take into account stability and progress as a whole, and to take the initiative to stand up when it should be established. What should be broken should be resolutely broken on the basis of standing. At the same time, it is necessary to work steadily and steadily, grasp the timing, degree, and effect, and not deviate from reality and rush for success.

How do we understand "establishing first and then breaking"? What are the "establishments" and what are the "breakings"? What are the key points of the policy for stabilizing growth next year? Focusing on the relevant topics that are hotly discussed in the market, the 21 st Century Business Herald conducted an exclusive interview with Zhang Yongjun, deputy chief economist of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges.

Zhang Yongjun. Data map

Establish first and then break: create conditions for consumption and industrial upgrading

"21st Century": At the annual meeting of China's economy, it was mentioned that this year, the mainland's economy has been developing in waves and moving forward in twists and turns. How do you see the current challenges facing China's economy?

Zhang Yongjun: The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that to further promote the economic recovery, it is necessary to overcome some difficulties and challenges, mainly due to insufficient effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak social expectations, and still many risks and hidden dangers. The central government's analysis and judgment of the current challenges facing China's economy is comprehensive and accurate, and these problems are both internal and external, cyclical and structural, both demand-side and supply-side, and these difficulties and challenges are intertwined, and the impact on the mainland's economic development is relatively large, and the degree of manifestation in different fields in different periods is also an important reason why the mainland's economic operation is showing wave-like development and zigzag progress. However, these difficulties and challenges are difficulties in development and challenges in the process of progress. On the whole, the mainland's development is still characterized by both opportunities and challenges, the favorable conditions facing it outweigh the unfavorable factors, and the basic trend of economic rebound and long-term improvement has not changed.

21st Century: What do you think should be "established" and which should be "broken"?

Zhang Yongjun: With regard to "establishing first and then breaking down," it is necessary to take the initiative to stand up what should be established, and resolutely break down what should be broken on the basis of establishment; at the same time, it is necessary to work steadily and steadily, grasp the timing, degree, and effectiveness well, and not deviate from reality and be in a hurry to achieve success, that is, it is necessary to make overall plans and take into account the relationship between stability and progress.

As far as my Xi experience is concerned, it can be understood from the following aspects: from the perspective of industrial development, it is necessary to vigorously develop strategic emerging industries. It is necessary to accelerate the implementation of the innovation-driven development strategy, lead the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation, develop new quality productivity, strengthen high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-reliance, vigorously promote new industrialization, support the growth and expansion of new kinetic energy, create a number of strategic emerging industries, and open up a new track for future industries. At the same time, it is necessary to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, transform traditional industries with new technologies, carry out digital, intelligent and green transformation of traditional industries, and improve production efficiency and product quality. On this basis, the backward excess capacity with high energy consumption and high emissions should be resolutely eliminated.

From the perspective of improving people's livelihood and expanding domestic demand, it is necessary to eliminate backward products under the condition of product upgrading and improvement of consumption conditions. At present, the relevant departments to improve technology, energy consumption, emissions and other standards as the traction, to promote large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods for the new, to boost new energy vehicles and electronic products and other bulk consumption, to encourage the expansion of new consumption, to carry out new energy vehicles, green building materials, smart home appliances to the countryside activities. These actions are undoubtedly of great significance for improving residents' consumption levels, improving people's livelihood, and promoting the upgrading of related industries, and will also play an important role in promoting high-quality development.

However, it should be noted that to adapt to the requirements of establishing first and then breaking, it means creating corresponding conditions for consumption upgrading. Take electric vehicles as an example, at present in large and medium-sized cities, has built a lot of charging piles and other facilities, represented by electric vehicles The number of new energy vehicles is growing rapidly; It is necessary to pay attention to avoid the situation that occurred in some areas in the process of switching from coal to gas in the past, which did not break down before it was established and affected the lives of residents.

The conditions for the implementation of a more active macroeconomic policy are met

21st Century: What areas will macroeconomic policies focus on next year?

Zhang Yongjun: The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that next year it is necessary to come up with more policies that are conducive to stabilizing expectations, growth, and employment. We should be proactive in changing the mode, adjusting the structure, improving the quality, and increasing the efficiency, and constantly consolidate the foundation for stability and improvement. It is necessary to strengthen the counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of macroeconomic policies, continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and strengthen the innovation and coordination of policy tools. This has set the guiding principles and direction for the formulation of various economic policies next year.

First of all, it should be noted that the mainland has the conditions for implementing a relatively active macroeconomic policy. The price level on the mainland is relatively low, the debt level of the central government is not high, and there is still considerable room for fiscal and monetary policies.

From the perspective of the focus of various economic policies, according to the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the speeches of the responsible persons of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Central Bank and other competent departments, there are mainly the following areas: First, actively support scientific and technological innovation and accelerate the construction of a modern industrial system. The financial sector should continue to increase the support for basic research, ensure the demand for key core technology research funds, and at the same time deepen the reform of the allocation and use mechanism of science and technology funds, adjust and optimize the direction of the use of funds, and support the acceleration of the construction of a modern manufacturing system.

Second, efforts should be made to expand effective demand, continue to make good use of funds such as investment from the central budget and special bonds of local governments, and give full play to the leading role of government investment; make good use of social security transfer payments and other tools to increase residents' input through multiple channels and enhance their consumption capacity; support the construction of a system for the circulation and supply of daily necessities, speed up the completion of the shortcomings in rural commercial and trade circulation, build an efficient and smooth circulation system, and release consumption potential.

The third is to promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas, support rural revitalization and agricultural development, focus on ensuring national food security, stabilizing subsidies for grain farmers, protecting farmers' enthusiasm for growing grain, improving the interest compensation mechanism for major grain-producing areas, and mobilizing the enthusiasm of local governments to develop agriculture. Support the consolidation of the achievements of poverty alleviation, and resolutely adhere to the bottom line of no systematic return to poverty. Promote the strengthening of rural infrastructure construction, continue to improve the rural living environment, implement the fiscal and tax support policies of the regional development strategy, and promote the construction of a regional economic layout with complementary advantages and high-quality development.

Fourth, we will strive to promote green and low-carbon development, continue to promote the prevention and control of air pollution and increase the protection and restoration of ecosystems through fiscal and taxation policies and monetary policies, continue to support the green and low-carbon transformation of key industries such as industry, transportation and construction, and continue to optimize the support policies for clean energy.

Fifth, we will strive to protect and improve people's livelihood. We will continue to implement the strategy of giving priority to employment, promote the employment and entrepreneurship of key groups, strengthen social security measures, and further improve the financing and treatment adjustment mechanisms for basic medical insurance and basic old-age insurance for urban and rural residents. Promote the equalization of basic public education services, actively support the construction of three major projects, including affordable housing, "peacetime and emergency" public infrastructure, and urban village transformation, and support the acceleration of the construction of a new model of real estate development.

At the same time, it is necessary to enhance the consistency of macro policy orientation, strengthen the coordination and cooperation of fiscal, monetary, employment, industrial, regional, science and technology, environmental protection and other policies, and include non-economic policies in the assessment of macro policy orientation coherence, so as to form a policy synergy to support economic growth and high-quality development.

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