The story starts from the corner of the city, everything seems so ordinary, but it carries the expectations and dreams of countless people. This city is where I grew up and the stage where I struggled.
Time flies, and the changes in the property market have become a mirror of the city. I remember that year, the property market fell into a downturn and market confidence fell to the bottom. Online commentators have expressed pessimism, as if they saw a haze enveloping the entire real estate market. There is a loss of confidence in the correction of the property market, and it is widely believed that it will take longer.
Changes in transaction volume and demand have become a microcosm of the downturn in the property market.
In 2021, the property market reached its peak in terms of transaction value, but has since taken a sharp turn. The unreal demand in the early stage and the contraction in the demand for real estate itself have led to a sharp drop in transaction volumes. Urbanization used to drive the real estate boom, but as the rate of urbanization increases, new demand weakens and the market is bottlenecked.
At this stage, Zhao Hui, the former chief economist of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, expressed his unique views. He mentioned that one of the motivations for future housing demand will be the pursuit of high-quality housing. Citing his experience living in Japan, he pointed out that Beijing's housing is seriously aging and has obvious gaps in quality. He suggested that in the future, we should pay attention to the level of building materials, construction quality supervision, and standard system to improve the quality of housing.
The improvement of housing quality has become a key variable in the housing market in the future. Right now, there is a huge gap between our house and a high-quality house, and it needs to be improved urgently. Old buildings will be phased out, and high-quality commercial housing will gradually emerge.
The future of the real estate market is also full of uncertainties. Houses will gradually become higher quality, and prices will rise. The increase in demand will come from the demand for quality homes, however, the surplus of older homes will lead to fierce competition, making their value constantly decreasing.
At this moment, personal advice comes into focus. For those living in high-rise buildings, it is advisable to consider replacing their homes with older buildings to avoid the problems that older buildings may bring.
For owner-occupiers, I highly recommend using a relatively good quality house as a way to preserve its value.
There are two personal suggestions involved, the first of which is about the replacement of high-rise residential buildings. For low-density housing, I recommend considering the possibility of demolition, while for large high-rise buildings, there is a dilemma of demolition. It's a question of tangles and choices, and it needs to be carefully weighed.
The second suggestion relates to the frequency of replacement of owner-occupied homes. I emphasize that for owner-occupiers, it is always possible to choose a relatively good quality house as an option to maintain its value. Based on the quality control of the building, I propose to replace it every 8-10 years.
This not only ensures the quality of the housing, but also preserves and increases its value in the face of market fluctuations.
Society's response to this series of changes is complex and rich. Some people are worried about the downturn in the property market, believing that it will affect the development of the entire economy. Some people agree with the pursuit of high-quality housing, believing that it is an inevitable requirement for the improvement of the living environment. However, there are also concerns about the rise in house prices, which will make buying a home a more difficult task.
Overall, the future of the property market is full of uncertainties, and each of us needs to find our place in the tide of this era.