From December 11 to 12, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing, and General Secretary Xi Jinping attended the meeting and delivered an important speech.
CCTV's "Hot Interpretation" column noted that when the meeting emphasized the requirements of "we must adhere to the deepening of supply-side structural reform and focus on expanding effective demand and synergy", a new expression was used - "to establish the domestic cycle on the basis of the main driving force of domestic demand, and improve the quality and level of international circulation".
The main driving force of domestic demand - this is a new formulation
The economy of a large country needs a strong and resilient national economic circulation system. Smoothing the economic cycle, basing ourselves on the domestic market, responding to the uncertainty of the external environment with the certainty of our own development, and doing a good job in the domestic cycle are the initiative to take precautions and coordinate development and security.
"Domestic demand is the basic driving force of China's economic development, and it is also an inevitable requirement to meet the people's growing needs for a better life. General Secretary Xi's clear thesis profoundly pointed out the importance of expanding domestic demand in stimulating China's economic development and resolving major social contradictions, and provided an action guide for formulating medium- and long-term development plans for the national economy and improving macroeconomic regulation and control.
Expanding domestic demand is an effective and important strategy for promoting economic development. The 2023 Central Economic Work Conference anchors the new trends of China's economic work in 2024, and upgrades the positioning of domestic demand from "basic driving force" to "main driving force", which is both necessary and feasible, with both key support and practical needs.
Dong Yu, executive vice president of the China Development Planning Research Institute of Tsinghua University, pointed out in an interview with CCTV that the "main driving force of domestic demand" put forward by the Central Economic Work Conference in the understanding of the "five musts" is based on a systematic summary of the work of expanding domestic demand over a period of time. The term "main power" is reflected in the fact that domestic demand plays a greater role in stimulating the domestic cycle, that is, it should be used as the main engine of domestic economic growth. Dong Yu further explained: "Compared with the term 'basic power', 'main power' emphasizes that domestic demand should not only play a basic supporting role in the changing situation, but also play a leading role in development, which is also completely corresponding to the role of consumption and investment in the current economic growth." ”
"Initiative" from the perspective of pressure
Maintaining a general balance between aggregate supply and aggregate demand is a prerequisite for the healthy operation of the socialist market economy. Focusing on expanding domestic demand is a major measure taken by the CPC Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core to deeply grasp the international and domestic economic situation and promote China's economic recovery.
Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, General Secretary Xi Jinping has made a series of important expositions on expanding domestic demand based on the reality of the mainland's economic operation, providing scientific guidance for the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand.
The Central Economic Work Conference held in 2021 and 2022 both pointed out the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations. At present, the situation facing the development of the mainland is still complicated, with an increase in unfavorable factors in the international political and economic environment, and the superposition of cyclical and structural contradictions in China.
"Effective demand is insufficient, overcapacity in some industries, social expectations are weak, there are still many risks and hidden dangers, there are blockages in the domestic circulation, and the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment are rising"...... The 2023 Central Economic Work Conference once again confronts the difficulties and challenges facing the mainland's economic situation.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said: "The main problem facing China's economy now is the 'blockage' of the domestic circulation system, the most important of which is the contraction of demand. The new term 'main power' further clearly emphasizes that domestic demand is of great significance for smoothing the domestic economic cycle, meeting the growing needs of more than 1.4 billion Chinese for a better life, and solidly promoting high-quality development. ”
Expanding domestic demand is the key support for breaking through the "blockages" of the economic cycle, consolidating the domestic fundamentals, and building a new development pattern, and it is also an "active choice" to give full play to the advantages of the mainland's super-large-scale market. The 2023 Central Economic Work Conference requires that "we should earnestly enhance the sense of responsibility and mission for doing a good job in economic work, seize all favorable opportunities, take advantage of all favorable conditions, and do as soon as we see them, and do more if we can, and strive to respond to the uncertainty of changes in the situation with the certainty of our own work."
"Proactive" from the effect
On January 31, 2023, General Secretary Xi Jinping clearly emphasized at the second collective study Xi of the Political Bureau of the 20th CPC Central Committee: "The mainland is a super-large economy, and a super-large economy can and must be internally recyclable. ”
2023 is the first year for the full implementation of the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, and the year for economic recovery and development after the three-year transition of new crown epidemic prevention and control. All localities and departments have adhered to the strategic basis of expanding domestic demand, and a series of policies and measures to promote consumption and stabilize investment have continued to be effective, and the potential of domestic demand has been released at an accelerated pace, and the driving role has been significantly enhanced.
Visitors shop for trinkets at the 2023 China International Travel Mart on November 17, 2023.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first three quarters, the contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth in the mainland increased to 113%, of which the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 83.2%, which effectively hedged the pressure of external demand contraction and played a "booster" and "stabilizer" role in the overall recovery of the economy.
Promote the economic rebound, and the domestic market engine continues to exert force. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued measures to restore and expand consumption, and the Ministry of Commerce and other ministries and commissions have introduced a number of measures to promote household consumption. From the Year of Consumption Boost to the Consumption Promotion Month to the International Consumption Season, the Golden Autumn Shopping Festival...... In 2023, policies to promote consumption will be implemented one after another, consumption promotion activities will continue to be exciting, the supply quality and supply level of the consumer market will continue to improve, and the release of consumption potential will be accelerated.
"Proactive" from the perspective of deployment
"The mainland's population of more than 1.4 billion people has entered a modern society as a whole, which is larger than the population of the existing developed countries combined, and its arduousness and complexity are unprecedented, and we must firmly grasp the leading power of development in our own hands. ”
The 2023 Central Economic Work Conference emphasized that it is necessary to stimulate potential consumption, expand profitable investment, and form a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other, and "focus on expanding domestic demand" as one of the nine key tasks of the mainland's economic work in 2024, and also emphasize "promoting consumption from post-epidemic recovery to continuous expansion" and "giving full play to the driving and amplifying effect of government investment", which means that expanding domestic demand is still the focus and key of economic work in 2024.
Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the Economic Policy Committee of the Chinese Society for Policy Sciences, said that the expansion of domestic needs to play a key role in investment, and at the same time play the fundamental role of consumption, so that investment and consumption can form a dynamic new balance at a higher level, and further accumulate momentum for sustainable economic development.
What is potential consumption? What is profitable investment, and in what areas do we need to "take the initiative"? The Central Economic Work Conference has set out key points in relevant fields.
From the Outline of the Strategic Plan for Expanding Domestic Demand (2022-2035) to the Implementation Plan for the 14th Five-Year Plan for Expanding Domestic Demand, the state has always adhered to the strategy of expanding domestic demand at the policy level.
Dong Yu suggested that the next step to implement the spirit of the 2023 Central Economic Work Conference can focus on how to form a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other, that is, to find the combination of the two, key national support areas and supporting policies.
Zhang Liqun said that in expanding domestic demand, we must focus on the benign interaction between investment and consumption, and grasp the force of various policies. Consumption is the goal, investment is the means, and only investment can form a high-quality supply, form a relatively good employment, promote the increase of residents' income, and form the purchasing power of consumption.
In the next stage, we will continue to do a good job in expanding domestic demand, which will surely accumulate stronger development momentum, boost Chinese-style modernization, and promote stable and long-term economic development.
Director丨Luo Hongbing, Wei Qihu
Producer丨Wang Jingdong
Editor-in-Chief丨Li Xuan
Editor丨Liu Zhen
Vision丨Zhang Zixi
Proofreading丨Li Shanshan, Wang Zhuojie, Song Chunyan, Liang Yaqin, Fan Lijun
Produced by丨CCTV Network