What destroyed their dream of buying a house?

"Quiet Life"

"As long as you sign your name on the contract, you can get a mortgage from the bank smoothly, and people who do not have proof of income or incomplete documents, or even have no hope of repaying the principal, can move into the house of their choice. ”

It sounds unbelievable, but it has ever happened. Adam Tuz, a well-known British historian and professor of history at Columbia, describes the scenario in his book Crash: How the Global Financial Crisis Reshaped the World.

At the time, countless ordinary residents thought that this was a great opportunity to realize their dream of buying a house, however, it backfired, and soon after,

The U.S. real estate subprime loan market began to collapse, shattering the home dreams of nine million ordinary American families.

The book "Crash: How the Global Financial Crisis Reshaped the World" provides a detailed interpretation of the 2008 financial crisis, which was triggered by housing. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 17 times since 2005, puncturing the housing market bubble and triggering the subprime mortgage crisis, which in turn threatens the entire world economy, shaking the financial systems of the City of London and many advanced economies in East Asia, Eastern Europe, and Russia with unprecedented speed and intensity, and even its effects are still continuing.

Why did people in the United States at that time yearn for a house and end up making themselves homeless? What destroyed their dream of a home?

The subprime mortgage crisis, a dream bomb

I don't know if you've read Sorkin's best-selling book, Too Big to Fail, by New York Times chief correspondent, which describes the pre-crisis Wall Street boom this way: "Banks are very keen to provide mortgages. As long as you sign your name on the contract, anyone can get a home loan smoothly. Without providing any proof, anyone who wants to buy a home can easily issue a $500,000 mortgage certificate from the bank and get a loan after a month as long as they claim to have a six-figure salary. ”

According to the credit quality of borrowers, the loan market is divided into three levels, namely high-quality loans, sub-prime loans and subprime loans. Obviously, the third level is aimed at those who are relatively poor in terms of creditworthiness: heavily indebted, have no proof of income, and lack sufficient income to make timely payments. Due to the low degree of credit requirements, its loan interest rate is 2%-3% higher than that of general mortgage loans, and its profit is the highest, so the risk is also the largest.

Low-quality subprime loans are a product of the push for a new mortgage system by private lenders. "The Crash" highlights the important role played by these civil institutions in this disaster. Far bolder than the high threshold for government-funded companies, they instigated these toxic loans in order to gain market share in the face of fierce competition, contributing to a dangerous new risk appetite.

Since the American Civil War, U.S. housing policy and mortgage disbursement have systematically supported white majority homeownership, and in the '90s and early 21st century, many new homeowners were minority families who, for decades, were constrained by the "red lines" drawn by Roosevelt's New Deal housing policies and were unable to apply for mortgages. The emergence of subprime mortgages has undoubtedly given these long-term policy-weak groups the possibility of realizing their dreams.

《Travel》

In the face of the boom in the market, credit rating agencies have chosen to lower their credit rating standards, and the three major rating agencies compete with each other in order to provide AAA ratings in the quickest and cheapest way. AAA ratings are supposed to be a symbol of quality and a certificate of safe assets, but a large number of undocumented, low-rated, high-yield bonds have turned into AAA rated bonds. However, the mortgage securitization mechanism has systematically created a "race to the bottom" in the quality of mortgage loans. Adam Tuz's criticism in "The Crash" of such behavior as irresponsible, bordering on crime, or outright fraud weakens the incentive to prudently regulate underlying loans and leads to irrational pursuit by institutional investors.

The subprime mortgage market is booming, and seniors, low-income and "underserved" minority communities, and others who can't afford to repay are all enjoying the joy of having the homeownership they want.

Seventy percent of Americans have made their dreams come true, and more than 80 million families own their homes, and these households are the largest source of demand for the world's economy.

"If you don't buy a house today, you won't be able to buy it tomorrow!"

In anticipation of capital appreciation, the meaning of residential ownership has also changed. Houses will no longer just provide shelter, they will bring them wealth.

The greed of speculators is spreading, and even at the bottom of the food chain, those who have climbed the real estate ladder by getting mortgages with floating rates, low credit ratings have jumped into the frenzy of property speculation. People believe that properties will always appreciate significantly so that their assets will be enough to be refinanced on better terms.

In 2006, one-third of new mortgages issued in the U.S. were for second, third, or even fourth homes. In Florida, Arizona and California, which came to be known as the "bubble states," the proportion was as high as 45 percent. Property speculation has become a national sport. By the summer of 2007, a total of $5.213 trillion in private asset-backed securities had been issued, of which $1.3 trillion was the most dangerous portion of mortgages, namely those of subprime mortgages. In 2007, American consumers bought about 16 percent of global output, and nothing happier than soaring home prices.

The Big Short

However, the rating agencies are well aware that a bomb has been planted.

In a December 2006 e-mail, one rating expert told another: "Hopefully, by the time the House of Cards collapses, we'll all be rich and retired." ”

The collapse of the house

In August 2007, the $2,000 billion subprime loan market began to collapse, and the collapse quickly spread to global markets.

On the morning of August 9, BNP Paribas, France's most well-known bank at the time, announced that it would freeze three of its funds, marking a decisive moment in the outbreak of the crisis: the bomb in the house finally exploded completely.

House prices have fallen, asset valuations have decreased, and the worst shock has been that homes have become negative equity. Some communities in the U.S. are facing serious challenges, with tens of thousands of families who have just applied for a mortgage unable to repay their loans. Marginalized minority areas such as Cincinnati, Cleveland and the southern Sunshine State have seen large numbers of mortgage defaults. In the summer of 2009, the International Monetary Fund tentatively estimated that the loss of U.S. household assets reached $11 trillion.

The house was no longer a safe haven, and it became a fatal straw that crushed the family.

At the height of the crisis, 10% of U.S. mortgages were severely delinquent, more than a quarter of U.S. households were negative, and countless people were displaced. Millions of people have been trapped in a long-term loan repayment hell, tormented, and with falling home prices, they struggle to recoup their loan losses by recovering or auctioning off their collateral.

The housing crisis has also forced the largest migration in the United States since the Great Depression. Once-avid homebuyers, especially minorities, lost ownership of their homes, and apartheid took on another form.

Adam Tuz points out in Crash that the catastrophe began to emerge in 2006. The rate of real estate price growth has slowed or even fallen, and lenders' housing assets have shrunk, financially struggling families have to stop making payments and abandon their properties, and subprime lenders have become direct victims of defaulting bad debts. However, most people were still immersed in the sweet home, until similar incidents erupted on a larger scale and in a concentrated manner, completely upsetting the balance.

Houses collapse quickly, and people wake up from their homeroom dreams, only to be crushed by an epoch-making catastrophe before they have time to react.

The explosion of raging fires spread to all areas, burning people's lives: poverty, displacement, household consumption and business investment both fell sharply, and the American auto industry suffered a fatal blow... Tens of millions of people are unemployed. Television cameras recorded bankers stumbling out of office buildings in London and New York with boxes of belongings. The month-on-month decline in the U.S. employment rate from the winter of 2008 to the winter of 2009 was staggering, with more than 800,000 monthly unemployed.

The protagonist of the movie "Nomadland" is impoverished, living in a van, earning a living by doing odd jobs, and traveling west alone on the highway. Because the small town of Ompier, the place where she had lived all her life, was completely crushed by the financial crisis, the gypsum factory, which was an important pillar of the economy, collapsed, the catastrophic failure completely paralyzed the community, even the zip code was canceled, and everyone was forced into exile.

Nomadland

More powerful bombs are counting down, and out-of-control cars are slamming under the bridge.

Compared to large-scale events such as global economic imbalances and U.S.-China relations, the U.S. mortgage finance mechanism may seem like a small-scale event, and apartments may also be unremarkable, but U.S. real estate accounts for 20% of global wealth. The rapid spread of the crisis to major countries around the world demonstrated its extraordinary global synchronicity. By September 2008, it was no longer individual banks that needed to be rescued at all costs, but the financial system as a whole.

Adam Tuz gives a staggering statistic: with the perfect synchronization of supply chains, some 104 countries experienced a decline in both imports and exports from the second half of 2008 to the first half of 2009, and every country and every traded commodity without exception experienced a recession, with a reasonable estimate of between 27 million and 40 million unemployed worldwide.

《Partner》

Crash provides a way to gaze and revisit and think about the emotional experience of the house.

When we look back on this catastrophe in the present, we have to admit that new economic challenges and crises have arrived, and we may be able to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past by learning from history.

Written and arranged: NOA, Wild Boar

Crash: How the Global Financial Crisis Reshaped the World

"Sweeping the Floor"

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