The property market has "broken the situation"! Experts have proposed to "completely cancel purchase restrictions"! Is it really time?

Today is December 4th, the property market continues to be sluggish, and it seems that there is "no way to do it", how can we "break the situation"? Experts said that it is time to completely cancel the purchase restrictions.

First, the expert said

Regardless of whether the property market is up or down, there will be experts who throw out different remarks, or put forward ideas to stabilize housing prices, or put forward suggestions for the property market to "break the situation".

Recently, expert Ren Zeping said that the current property market continues to be sluggish, and the long-term inflection point of real estate has appeared, and it is time to fully cancel the purchase restrictions. We interpret sentence by sentence, "the current property market continues to be sluggish" is a fait accompli, even the property market "bullish" has to admit that quite a lot of it is in the property market when the occasional rebound jumped out to "sing two sentences", the National Bureau of Statistics and major institutions every month released the property market data can also confirm, whether it is real estate investment or housing price trends, until November this year, are still in a downward trend, or there are signs of stopping, but the overall trend has not changed.

As early as the end of July this year, at the important meeting, the senior management has made it clear that to adapt to the new situation of major changes in the supply and demand relationship of the mainland real estate market, and adjust and optimize the real estate policy in a timely manner. In other words, the real estate cycle has changed from "oversupply" to "oversupply", the seller's market has shifted to a buyer's market, some cities have changed, and some cities are already on the way to change. At that time, Ren Zeping proposed that the restrictive measures introduced during the previous period of market overheating would be gradually removed.

2. Cancel purchase restrictions

After 4 months, it is now December, the property market is still in a downturn, at this time, Ren Zeping proposed again, it is time to fully cancel the purchase restrictions, is it really time?

From the perspective of the long cycle of real estate, the property market may be divided into two cycles, the previous large cycle of continuous rise in housing prices can be regarded as a cycle, and now and even for a long time in the future, the overall downward trend of housing prices may be regarded as another large cycle, which is what Ren Zeping called "long-term inflection point". In the previous cycle, the restrictive policies of the property market, including purchase restrictions, did play a role in stabilizing housing prices, but with the change of the new situation of real estate, the restrictive policies have also completed their historical mission, and it is indeed time to withdraw from the real estate stage.

The time has come to "cancel purchase restrictions", but is it time to "cancel them completely"? According to statistics, as of November 2023, only Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Chengdu, Tianjin, Xi'an, Hangzhou, Suzhou and other cities are still restricting purchases, and some of these cities have also relaxed purchase restrictions on a small scale. The key point now is whether the first-tier cities, that is, the four cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, should also be "completely canceled", whether to "jog in small steps" or "run in big steps", and how to choose?

Third, the property market

This article does not refute Mr. Ren Zeping's meaning, but only puts forward some of his own views on the current situation of the property market.

I have to admit that the current population inflow and outflow are almost determined by the fundamentals of the city, just take the core second-tier cities to collectively relax the "purchase restrictions", the restrictive policy has indeed been canceled, but the effect of the property market, but not every city has a good response, which is the competition behind the fundamentals of the city. Take first-tier cities, core second-tier cities, weak second-tier cities, and third- and fourth-tier cities as examples, if there is no "purchase restriction", it is inevitable that the former is more favored by home buyers, and the competition is also based on urban fundamentals, which is also the logic behind population migration.

The purpose of the "comprehensive cancellation of purchase restrictions" is to conform to the logic of natural migration of the population, so that more population flows to the core cities, so as to promote the system of linking people and land, cities with small populations will provide less land, and cities with large populations will supply more land, so as to solve the contradiction between people and land, and also improve the new situation of "oversupply" real estatePerhaps, this is the meaning of "comprehensive cancellation of purchase restrictions".

To sum up, Ren Zeping proposed that it is time to completely cancel the purchase restrictions, is it really time? What do you think about this? Welcome to leave a message in the comment area.