Is "value investing" dead?

01

Today's market is awkward.

In the case of Huijin's tail disk protection, it was not stopped that the SSE 50 hit a new low this year.

And this new low is infinitely close to 2288 points in October last year.

In fact, if we take out one of the highest scores (the four major rows and the peaks of the pull-up in the middle and special estimates), the lowest scores are averaged:

In fact, the SSE 50 has fallen below last year's bottom.

In the 2018 bear market, the lowest point of the SSE 50 was 2249 points.

Further back in December 2016, the lowest point of the SSE 50 was 2,286 points.

M2 increased by 71% to 266 trillion from 155 trillion in 2016.

The SSE 50, which represents China's most high-quality value stocks, is stagnant.

This can only tell one thing:

What value investors think of as "value" is not the same thing as Munger's so-called "value".

02

The most ironic scene of today is:

BYD issued a high-profile message to mourn Munger, but its stock price hit a new low.

There is no doubt that this is a romance that belongs to the capital market, and he is telling you with personal actions:

We're different.

Other markets have fallen into the eyes of money, just to make money.

We are in order to finance enterprises, concentrate social forces, and solve the problem of stuck necks...

03

I love a quote from Charlie Munger at the shareholder meeting, and I even copied it by hand when I was upset.

Charlie Munger said:

"The so-called value investing is actually very simple, avoid harmful people and harmful activities, live to learn, and do a lot of things that delay gratification. ”

"If you do all these things, you're almost certain to succeed. If you don't, you're going to need a lot of luck. ”

This seemingly simple sentence actually has three key points:

You need to know what harmful people are, harmful activities, and delayed gratification.

It's complicated.

Because it is not uncommon for harmful people to do harmful things;

It is difficult to discern that harmless people do harmful things;

The more influential the "great good people" who do harmful current affairs under the banner of "doing good deeds", the more difficult it is to distinguish them.

In fact, in the process of investing, the most difficult thing is to distinguish information...

There are three more important points here:

1. How to filter valid information?

2. How to grasp the effectiveness and timeliness of effective information?

3. To what extent can they influence the market?

04

In fact, it's very hard and often easy to get slapped in the face.

For example, I expressed my optimism about the market in yesterday's draft, and said aggressively:

And also put words:

As a result, I was slapped in the face today.....

In my review, the words are too bold, but the point remains the same.

The reasons are not complicated:

1. As mentioned above, the SSE 50 is in the historical bottom area, and it is unlikely that this position will fall again.

2. Tomorrow will be announced November PMI, as long as the manufacturing PMI rises to more than 49.6, and the service PMI remains above 50.6, then this year will be considered to complete the task, and there will be no danger in the past.

Will it be lower than that? I think it's unlikely, after all, this is a new year.

3. The news of going to Shanghai for research has been released, although it is very simple, but everyone understands that "the fewer words, the bigger the matter." ”

4. In addition, it is too coincidental at this point in time, after the meeting in Shanghai, there is a high probability that next week will enter the decision-making week, and the financial work conference will set the GDP target and deficit rate for next year.

Based on this, let's look at today's market adjustment:

The Beijing Stock Exchange and Chang'an, as we expected, began to consolidate deeply, and the bottom was exchanged for chips.

The market began to "break down" against the good news of RMB appreciation.

It's very understandable.

In a word, crying children have milk to eat.

The further downturn in the market is to force a stronger fiscal policy at this critical juncture.

You don't see, the little couple who bought an unfinished building in Zhengzhou some time ago that everyone broke their defenses, were originally disheartened and wanted to go back to their hometown, but recently they smiled again, saying that they "want to stay in Zhengzhou and start a business".

There is no way, people live out the "united front value".

05

Based on such information combing, as well as the understanding of the market, is there a problem with the judgment of "squatting on a long white candle"?

I think it's fine.

On the one hand, the more fully the bottom chip exchange, the more surging the pulling power will be, which is like a spring, within the yield strength, the harder you press down, the greater the height of the rebound, and the more fierce the rebound.

On the other hand, it is in this way that the power of the "policy" will be revealed, and the person who formulates the policy will be wise and powerful.

On the other hand, the renminbi continues to appreciate, and the pricing of the capital market remains low, which is obviously unreasonable.

To sum up, my point of view remains the same, there is no need to panic in this position, you just need to follow the steps and gradually pick up chips.

Of course, if you ask me to make all my judgments, I will honor them immediately.

Truth be told, none of us Jesus can do that!

06

But I would say that you will gain something by "sticking to what is worthwhile, avoiding harmful people and things, and delaying gratification" like Munger.

Today, we have sorted out the results of the past three years, and we are quite satisfied, and the income curve is like this.

Specifically, the annual earnings are as follows:

Although there is no thrilling skyrocketing, it is better to settle down smoothly and steadily, so that compound interest can achieve positive rolling.

epilogue

We have a "good habit" here, we need to "grab" all good things, and we need to "fight" for all good things.

This leads to a phenomenon where I didn't know where the money came from, but now I don't know how the money didn't come from.

Just like "Huawei Car" and "Beijing Stock Exchange" are soaring, but in the long run, there is a high probability that they will fall to the ground.

Sometimes, there's nothing wrong with slowing down, just like the older I get, the more I understand Munger.

"The so-called value investing is actually very simple, avoid harmful people and harmful activities, live to learn, and do a lot of things that delay gratification. ”

The years are never written on the face, but engraved on the heart.

Finally, please have the conditions to join my "circle" as much as possible, and the market is one step ahead

Let's make compound interest roll.

Congratulations, I am Xie Xiaobai, who hopes that your wealth is free.

Such a high-quality blogger, still don't like and follow?