Before Thanksgiving, the Dow returned to a more than three-month high, oil prices fell 5% intraday, and U.S. Treasury yields rebounded in a V-shape

U.S. economic data was mixed. Last week, the number of initial jobless claims fell to a five-week low of 209,000, indicating that the labor market continues to be tight. However, durable goods orders fell 5.4% month-on-month in October, the largest decline in three months and far worse than expected, and orders for durable goods of non-defense capital, excluding aircraft, fell 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a weak business investment indicator. In November, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to a four-month to six-month low in a row, with one-year inflation expectations reaching the highest in seven months and five-year inflation expectations reaching the highest in 12 years.

ECB Vice President Guindos warned that markets should not have wishful optimistic illusions about a soft landing for the economy, and that the escalation of geopolitical risks could trigger a correction in financial markets. He believes that there will be no recession in the eurozone in 2024, but it is too early to talk about a rate cut. Bundesbank President Nagel, a hawkish voter, said that it is impossible to judge whether there will be another rate hike, and the ECB is close to the level that the terminal rate should be.

After the release of the minutes of the Fed's November meeting, futures markets were betting on a 95% probability of no rate hike in December, down slightly from nearly 100% a day earlier. The probability of a rate cut will be reduced from 29% to 24% as early as March next year, and the probability of a rate cut from May will remain high at 60%. Goldman Sachs expects the European Central Bank to start cutting interest rates from the third quarter of 2024, and has now completed the rate hike, and the European and American central banks may cut interest rates by 100 basis points next year.

The UK finance minister announced policies such as tax cuts for individuals and businesses, investment in manufacturing and raising the minimum wage, and will invest 500 million pounds to make the UK an artificial intelligence "powerhouse", cut bond issuance in the 2023/24 financial year, but the total size is still higher than market expectations, and raised the deficit forecast for the 2024/25 fiscal year to the 2027/28 financial year, causing the UK long-term bond yield to rise sharply.

U.S. stocks rose, and the Dow rose more than 180

point, and the S&P returned to a new high in more than three months, Microsoft hit a new high, and Nvidia fell 4.5% at one point

Wednesday, November 22, the last trading day of the U.S. stock and U.S. bond markets before the Thanksgiving holiday, U.S. stocks collectively opened higher, and the Dow rose more than 100 points at the open, and the highest intraday rose more than 220 points. The tech-heavy Nasdaq halved its gains after rising 1%, while the S&P Energy sector fell more than 1%, following a 5% plunge in oil prices. The Nasdaq Technology Index rose more than 1% at the beginning of the session, refreshing the intraday record high again after a trading day.

As of the close, the Dow returned to its highest in more than three months since August 14, the S&P and Nasdaq both rose for the sixth day in seven trading days, the S&P returned to its highest since August 1, the Nasdaq was close to Monday's highest since July 31, Russell small-cap stocks were also close to Monday's two-month high, and the Nasdaq 100 regained 16,000 points, approaching Monday's record high in nearly two years since January 2022:

The S&P 500 closed up 18.43 points, or 0.41%, at 4,556.62. The Dow closed up 184.74 points, or 0.53%, at 35,273.03. The Nasdaq closed up 65.88 points, or 0.46%, at 14,265.86.

The Russell 2000 small-cap index rose 0.7%, the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Technology Market Cap-Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology companies in the Nasdaq 100, rose 0.3%, close to Monday's all-time high. The "fear index" VIX fell nearly 4% and fell below 13, hitting a two-month low since September 15 for many days.

The Nasdaq rose 1% and then halved, and the Dow returned to a new high in more than three months

The three major U.S. stock indexes are all set to rise during the month, with the Nasdaq up 11% so far in November, the Dow and the S&P 500 up more than 6% and 8% respectively. Among them, the S&P technology sector soared more than 12% to lead the way, followed by communication services and consumer discretionary stocks that rose about 10%, and only the energy sector fell during the month, while the technology and communication services sectors are both up 50% year-to-date, and consumer discretionary is up nearly 32%.

Solita Marcelli, U.S. chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, said demand for artificial intelligence will drive tech stocks higher this year. Data provider Adobe Analytics said that U.S. consumers saw a larger-than-expected increase in online spending at the start of the holiday shopping season, with spending expected to reach $9.6 billion during this week's Black Friday promotion, up 5.7% year-on-year. RBC expects the S&P to hit new highs next year.

Star technology stocks rose, with only Tesla falling nearly 3% to a one-week low, ending a three-day winning streak. Metaverse" Meta rose 1.3% to return to a two-year high, Amazon rose about 2% to a 19-month high, Microsoft rose 1.3% to the highest intraday and close in history, Apple rose 0.4% to a three-and-a-half-month high, Netflix rose 0.6% to a 22-month high, and Google A rose more than 1% to a four-week high.

Big tech stocks rose except for Tesla, and Apple's intraday market capitalization hit $3 trillion

Chip stocks also rose, but Nvidia fell 4.5% before closing down 2.5% to its lowest in more than a week, falling from its all-time high for two consecutive days. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 0.3%, regaining its three-and-a-half-month high. Intel came close to erasing its 2.3% gain at the start of the session, not far from a 19-month high, while AMD rose nearly 3% to a five-month high.

Nvidia closed down 2.5% after falling 4.5%, falling for two consecutive days from its all-time high

AI concept stocks were mixed, with C3.ai and BigBear.ai both significantly narrowing their gains to 1%, SoundHound .ai up more than 2%, and Palantir Technologies, which fell more than 7% yesterday, fell slightly again, further off its two-year high.

On the news, Sam Altman returned to OpenAI as CEO, and the board of directors was shaken. Microsoft is investing $500 million over the next two years to expand its hyperscale cloud computing and AI infrastructure in Quebec, Canada. Apple's market capitalization once returned to $3 trillion. Nvidia's third-quarter revenue, earnings and data center revenue all exceeded expectations, and the next quarter will be negatively dragged down by chip export restrictions, but it is predicted that revenue will increase by more than 200% for two consecutive quarters, and many investment banks such as Morgan Stanley raised their target prices, up to 40%.

The popular China index rose. ETF KWEB rose 0.5%, CQQQ fell 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index (HXC) rose 0.5%, hitting a six-week high on Monday and rising for the seventh day in nine days.

Among the Nasdaq 100 constituent stocks, JD.com rose 0.8%, Baidu rose nearly 6%, and Pinduoduo rose slightly. Among other stocks, Alibaba rose slightly, Tencent ADR fell 0.1%, and Station B fell 1%. NIO fell 0.5%, Xpeng rose 0.1%, and Li Auto closed down 0.3% after falling nearly 2%.

On the news side, Ali's intranet disclosed that Ma Yun did not sell a single share, and will hold Ali shares for a long time in the future, and regulatory documents last week showed that Ma Yun plans to sell 10 million shares, worth about $870 million. Nomura upgraded Baidu ADR to Buy with a price target of $145. The valuation may reach $90 billion, and SHEIN was revealed to have secretly submitted a form to IPO in the United States.

Bank stock indices hovered at one-week lows. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange's KBW Bank Index (BKX), the industry benchmark, rose 0.2%, continuing to move away from its three-month high since Aug. 14 and its lowest in three years since September 2020 at the end of October. The KBW Nasdaq Regional Bank Index (KRX) rose 0.4%, still far from its highest level since Sept. 1 and its lowest since November 2020 on May 11.

Other stocks that have moved more include:

Agricultural machinery giant Deere & Co. fell 7% at one point, and its 2024 net profit guidance was worse than expected, indicating a slowdown in farmers' demand for equipment.

Apparel retailer Guess fell nearly 14% at one point, with third-quarter net revenue falling short of expectations. Department store chain Nordstrom fell as much as 8% after poor revenue in the third quarter. Apparel and home goods retailer Urban Outfitters fell more than 12% for its biggest drop in two years, with same-store comparable sales falling short of expectations in the third quarter.

Boeing halved its gains after rising 1.5%, rising for four consecutive days to the highest in two and a half months. The FAA has approved the 737 Max 10 jet for certification flight testing, paving the way for the first commercial delivery of the largest model in the Max family next year.

VinFast Auto, which rose nearly 11% yesterday, rose nearly 10% at one point, and brokerage Wedbush Securities gave an outperform rating for the first time and hinted that the stock price would double, optimistic about profitable growth in the next few years.

European stocks generally rose, but British stocks fell. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed up 0.30%, its highest in two months since Sept. 20, led by a 1.5% rise in the travel and leisure sector, while oil and gas stocks fell 1.7%. The German stock index hit a new high of more than three months, and the French stock index hit a new two-month high.

10

The yield on the U.S. Treasury note fell to a two-month low after V

rebounded, turning to a daily high, 11

The month plummeted by about 50

basis points

U.S. consumer inflation expectations rose for the second month in a row, and labor market data remained resilient, with U.S. Treasury yields rising in the short term. The two-year yield topped 4.9%, and the yield on the 10-year base bond rebounded from a two-month low in U.S. stocks at the start of the session.

The yield on the two-year Treasury note, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, rose as much as 6 basis points to 4.94%, recovering nearly half of the losses since last Tuesday. The yield on the 30-year bond fell 3 basis points to 4.55%, the biggest one-day drop since Nov. 16.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, the "anchor of global asset pricing", fell 5 basis points to 4.36%, the lowest since September 20, and then turned higher and rose as high as 3 basis points to 4.45%, falling again in late trading and falling for five consecutive trading days, the longest losing streak since April 5. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has fallen by about 50 basis points so far in November as the market believes that the Fed has completed raising interest rates.

The 10-year Treasury yield rebounded in a V-shape after falling to a two-month low

The yield on the eurozone's benchmark 10-year German bond edged down to 2.56% in late trading, hitting a twelve-year high of 3.024% in early October before falling to a two-and-a-half-month low of 2.55% on Friday, while the two-year yield rose about 4 basis points and held steady at 3%, falling below 2.92% last week to a five-month low and hitting a 15-year high of 3.39% in July. The yield on the 10-year Italian bond benchmark of the more indebted peripheral countries was flat at 4.32%, after hitting an 11-year high of 5.025% in October. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose 5 basis points and the 30-year yield rose 10 basis points.

OPEC+

The postponement of the meeting brought concerns about the inability to cut production, and oil prices fell 5% intraday

Or dive 4

The US dollar, the decline in late trading narrowed significantly

The OPEC+ production decision-making meeting scheduled for Sunday was postponed by four days to November 30, and international oil prices fell 5% intraday. WTI January futures closed down $0.67, or 0.86%, at $77.10 a barrel. Brent January futures closed down $0.49, or 0.59%, at $81.96 a barrel.

U.S. oil WTI fell as deep as $4 or 5.1%, falling to a daily low of $74, erasing most of the gains since Friday, and U.S. stocks narrowed their losses significantly after midday trading and returned to $77. Brent oil fell as deep as $4 or 4.9%, a daily low of $78, and then regained the psychological integer mark of $80.

Oil prices fell 5% or $4 intraday, and the decline narrowed significantly at the end of the session

According to some analysts, the postponement of an important OPEC+ meeting was interpreted as the inability of Saudi Arabia and other member countries to agree on production cuts next year, accelerating the sell-off in oil prices and driving the commodity currency AUD to fall against the US dollar. At the same time, the EIA commercial crude oil inventories in the United States rose by nearly 9 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations and the previous value, and gasoline inventories rose instead of falling, all hinting at sluggish demand.

The reason for the significant narrowing of the decline in oil prices at the end of the session was that reports that Saudi Arabia and its allies were in a dilemma with quotas for African oil producers such as Angola and Nigeria, forcing OPEC+ to postpone its November oil policy meeting, which has nothing to do with the differences of opinion among the major oil producers in the Middle East.

TTF Dutch natural gas futures, the European benchmark, rose 2% to shake a six-week low, while ICE UK futures also edged up 0.6% to return above the 110p/kcal integer level. U.S. natural gas once rose more than 2%, off a nearly seven-week low.

The U.S. dollar index briefly rose above 104

Breaking away from a two-and-a-half-month low, the offshore yuan fell the deepest at 320

Point and lost 7.17

Yuan

The DXY, a basket of six major currencies, rose as much as 0.6% and briefly rose above the 104 mark, the lowest in two and a half months since August 31, before stopping losses and turning higher during the week. However, the dollar fell about 2.6% in November, or its worst monthly performance in a year.

The U.S. dollar index briefly rose above 104 to break its two-and-a-half-month low

Non-US currencies generally fell. EURUSD moved further off its three-month high and fell below 1.09, and GBP fell below 1.25 to break off a two-month high. The yen fell below 149 or fell as much as 0.9% against the dollar, stopping a four-day winning streak and falling from a two-month high, falling 12% for the year.

The offshore yuan once fell below 7.17 yuan, down 320 points from the previous day's close, temporarily from the highest in nearly four months, the first day of five trading days lower, and rose above 7.13 yuan on Tuesday.

Mainstream cryptocurrencies rose. Bitcoin, the largest by market capitalization, stood above $37,000, approaching its highest level set last week since April. Ethereum, the second-largest Ethereum, rose 5% and broke above $2,070, having risen above $2,100 to a seven-month high at the beginning of the month. Binance Coin fell 8% and then rose 4%, and the U.S. Department of Justice reached a settlement with Binance to end the criminal investigation, and Binance outflowed more than $1 billion in a day.

Bitcoin held above $37,000

Gold fell below 2000

The dollar broke off a three-week high, and London copper fell 1%

Out of more than two months high, nickel fell more than 3%

to a two-and-a-half-year minimum

The U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields turned higher and refreshed the daily high and low gold prices. COMEX gold futures for December delivery closed down 0.44% at $1,992.80 an ounce, off a three-week high. COMEX silver futures for December delivery closed down 0.76% at $23.688 an ounce.

Spot gold fell 0.6% in the U.S. stock market and fell below the psychological integer of $2,000, the daily low once fell below $1,990, and yesterday rose above $2,007 to hit a three-week high.

However, ANZ said that the cooling of US inflation has raised the prospect of the end of the rate hike cycle, and the macroeconomic backdrop is shifting to support gold, and the weakening of US Treasury yields and the US dollar has increased gold's investment attractiveness. UBS believes that the decline in gold prices may be a good buying opportunity, considering that the Fed will cut interest rates at some point, and predicts that gold prices will rise to an all-time high of $2,150 by the end of 2024.

Gold fell below $2,000 and broke off a three-week high

Higher US dollars and profit-taking ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday pushed down industrial base metals prices in London. The economic weather vane "Dr. Copper" stopped rising for three consecutive days, falling more than 1% and falling below $8,400, the highest in more than two months since September 15.

London aluminum fell 1.8%, off a two-week high. London zinc fell 2% to a three-week low. London lead fell 2.2%, further away from its highest since May last year. Lunxi fell more than 1% to the lowest in a week and a half. London nickel fell 3.3%, the lowest in two and a half years since April 2021. LME zinc inventories more than tripled in a week to the highest level in more than two years, and increased supply is also hitting nickel prices, analysts said.

In addition, domestic fuel oil futures closed down more than 5.7% in the night, low-sulfur fuel oil fell more than 4.6%, following the performance of WTI falling more than 5%, domestic Shanghai nickel futures closed down 2.4% in the night, and Shanghai lead fell about 1.3%.