Gold is dominated by market sentiment, but it is already preparing to land
I'm a little tired of gold now, of course, most bears should have this sentiment now, the reason is very simple, why is it rising every day? It's like falling into an infinite loop, every time you see a fall, it will be accompanied by a rise in the second half of the night and end, just like yesterday, even if I see a high short opportunity, but after the market fell to 1968, I still want to give it some expectations, will it break another 1960? But I quickly cut the plate and took a look at the performance of the dollar and other varieties, and there was no improvement! So why am I obsessed with the black candlestick in front of me?
The market rebounded unexpectedly, but there was one thing I didn't expect, the rebound was almost 10 US dollars, and it was directly up and down in situ to break through, how do you look at this bull is strong! You say that even if everyone knows that it is a high point, who is still willing to short? Or who dares to do it? But there is no way, the attempt to trade from the moment you start, it has been impossible to stop, only to grasp the rhythm of trading is the king.
I'm seriously looking for the law of the daily line, because the short cycle, is the problem of 2000 not 2000, you can't see other details, after the day line opens, you pay attention to the last wave of head fluctuations, this is a typical sell-off temptation, the market should evolve into a cyclical decline, even if 1930 is an obvious support, then you at least don't take some cyclical consolidation?
The previous high has been broken, but it has not been extended, the dollar has been supported near the 103 integer number, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has been supported, so I must see it fall directly, including a wave of rapid short-term decline just now, and now at least 93 can try to believe it, right? Don't be confused about the current position is not bad, since 93 can come down, as the next transaction stop loss is not OK? directly 88 participated, look at a wave of European market continued to fall, to 1975 can not be completely out?
I will not imagine the intraday fluctuation of the market as 10 US dollars, that has no trading value, for short-term investors who are satisfied with the space of 10 points, of course, they can leave the market by themselves, but what are we? big shorts, then naturally we still have to try to look down, I know there is support, but who said that support can not be broken? As for what will happen after 75, or that sentence, just wait, choose to short to give gold enough patience and confidence, and then go down better, we still have to play the next day.
In the middle of the night, there are minutes of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, and recently my attitude towards the Federal Reserve is very indifferent, not that they have no impact on the market, but now their internal voice is too easy to guess, and the market has never believed their stated position, which is guided by data, which leads to a large front-loading of market sentiment. There is also a process for the turnaround, right? Raise interest rates and cut interest rates as soon as they are over?
However, the advantage of this sentiment is that the follow-up is also easy to be reversed by the landing policy, the saying is that the market now believes that the interest rate will be cut in May next year, and the result is that the Federal Reserve will still maintain the possibility of the last interest rate hike in December, and it will maintain a neutral position in January, which will be directly judged as hawkish in the eyes of the market, as simple as that, so I always say, do you really expect gold to go up to 2000 in an interest rate cut expectation?
Second, the global economy urgently needs the Fed to loosen its grip, as a global central bank, its monetary policy will of course affect the economic conditions of other countries, the Fed took 10,000 steps back and said, really cut interest rates, the global economic warming is not a desired result for the market? Of course, it is too early to say this;
Third, there is no time in history that gold on 2000 is caused by the Fed's interest rate cut, although history has never been a non-meaning that there will not be in the future, but the fair value of gold has really reached this height? No, the current accurate fair value is between 1700-1800, and the extra part is a superposition of risk events, what is 2000? Can you make the dollar worthless or can it collapse the U.S. economy? Since there is none, why should you look at gold 2000 because of an expectation of an interest rate cut?
Fourth, again, the risk aversion to the recession also depends on the results of the data, right? Although the recent economic data has fallen, it is still slowly expanding, not in recession, and you can't say that the US economy is rubbish now, at best, it is slower than the previous hot expansion, but in the normal economic cycle, the data still maintains growth, it is all habitual, nothing.
So, falling, for good reason, going up, in my this no reason.
Disclaimer: There will be a lag in the update of the article, and it needs to be judged based on the actual situation
This article only represents personal views and is for reference only, investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market