Expand demand, strengthen entities, stabilize the economy, and make concerted efforts to stabilize economic policies

Entering November, there are less than two months left before the end of the year. Recently, the heads of the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have spoken out on different occasions, revealing a number of deployment measures to promote the economic recovery. From the perspective of macroeconomic control policies, fiscal policy and monetary policy will be further linked, and at the same time, "expanding demand" and "strengthening entities" are also important focus of policy. The synergy of a number of policies will further promote the realization of the expected goals of economic and social development throughout the year.

Fiscal and monetary policies are linked

In the first eight months, the country added more than 1.15 trillion yuan in tax cuts, fee reductions and tax refunds and deferrals, the central government issued an additional 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds to support post-disaster recovery and reconstruction and make up for the shortcomings of disaster prevention, mitigation and relief, issued part of the new local government debt quota for 2024 ahead of schedule, and lowered the reserve requirement ratio twice in March and September, releasing more than 1 trillion yuan of medium and long-term funds. The policy rate was cut twice in June and August... Since the beginning of this year, fiscal policy and monetary policy have been working hard to promote the recovery of the real economy.

"The focus is to implement macroeconomic regulation and control policies and solidly promote the implementation of macro policies at the micro level." Talking about future policies, Zheng Shajie, secretary of the party group and director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency reporters a few days ago.

In terms of fiscal policy, Minister of Finance Lan Foan said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that the Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a positive fiscal policy, focus on improving efficiency, and give better play to the effectiveness of fiscal policy. He mentioned that "accelerate the issuance and use of new treasury bonds, make good use of the funds of new local government special bonds, and maintain a reasonable expenditure intensity", "earnestly grasp the implementation of various policies introduced in the early stage, especially the tax and fee policies".

In terms of monetary policy, Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, said in a speech at the 2023 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting a few days ago, "Always maintain the soundness of monetary policy and support the stable growth of the real economy." He mentioned that "maintain a reasonable growth in the scale of monetary credit and social financing", "continue to increase support for major strategies, key areas and weak links", "reasonably grasp the level of interest rates, and promote the steady and moderate reduction of financing costs in the real economy".

Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China Chief Economist and Research Director Pang Ming said in an interview with reporters that it is expected that monetary policy will further strengthen the linkage with fiscal policy. With the acceleration of the pace of new bond issuance and the continuous optimization of investment and use, monetary and credit policy support should strive to be faster, stronger, more precise and more effective, and provide stable assistance to the real economy through sufficient, cost-effective, high-quality and effective credit support.

"Expanding demand" is a multi-arrow attack

In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods 342107 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%; The national investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 375035 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and the investment in manufacturing industry increased by 6.2% year-on-year; In July, August and September, the decline in exports narrowed month by month. Looking forward to the fourth quarter, expanding demand is still an important policy focus.

"To expand demand, the focus is on expanding domestic demand, especially consumer demand, continuing to expand effective investment, and stabilizing the basic market of foreign trade and foreign investment." Zheng Shajie said.

In the first three quarters, final consumption expenditure contributed 83.2% to economic growth, which is also one of the key points of expanding demand. At the recently held sub-forum on the consumption theme of the 6th Hongqiao International Economic Forum, Sheng Qiuping, Vice Minister of Commerce, said, "We will do a good job in the implementation of the policies that have been introduced, actively plan incremental policies, promote automobile consumption in the whole chain, accelerate the release of the potential of household appliances and household consumption, promote the high-quality development of the catering industry, and stabilize the basic market of consumption." ”

Jin Zhuanglong, Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China, also said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that he will continue to carry out the action of "increasing varieties, improving quality, and creating brands" in the industrial industry, promote high-quality products such as new energy vehicles, green building materials, and smart home appliances to the countryside, and strive to stabilize bulk consumption and promote the formation of new consumption growth points.

In terms of investment, we have taken multiple measures to promote private investment. The National Development and Reform Commission has built a unified national platform for promoting projects to private capital, and has so far publicly promoted 5,787 projects with a total investment of 5.8 trillion yuan. In addition, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance also recently issued the "Guiding Opinions on Standardizing the Implementation of the New Mechanism of Public-Private Partnership", which clarifies the list of new franchise construction (including reconstruction and expansion) projects (2023 edition) that support the participation of private enterprises.

"In order to implement the deployment of promoting the development and growth of the private economy, the next policy needs to continue to provide support for manufacturing investment dominated by private investment in terms of project approval and financing sources." Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, told reporters.

Wang Qing also said that in order to maintain the sustained and rapid growth of infrastructure investment at the end of this year and early next year, there is room for an increase in the quota of policy-based development financial instruments as a quasi-fiscal policy tool. The increase in the amount of this policy tool, coupled with the follow-up of relevant bank loans, can provide sufficient sources of funds for infrastructure investment.

"Strong entity" forging industry new advantages

According to the recent policy signals released by multiple departments, to boost the economic recovery, "strong entities" will also take multiple measures at the same time, from the industrial level, to promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and the cultivation and growth of emerging industries; From the micro level, it is necessary to create a good environment for the development of business entities and solve problems for enterprises.

The data show that in the first three quarters, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4% year-on-year, showing a positive trend. At the same time, investment in high-tech manufacturing and high-tech services increased by 11.3 percent and 11.8 percent year-on-year, respectively.

To further promote the development of the industry, relevant departments have actively made efforts in policies. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, together with relevant departments, has formulated and implemented 10 plans for the steady growth of key industrial industries. Talking about the next step, Jin Zhuanglong said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that he would promote the implementation of various policies and measures.

When talking about how to forge new advantages in the industry, Jin Zhuanglong also mentioned that he will formulate digital transformation action plans for key industries and key areas, highlight the key variable of artificial intelligence, take intelligent manufacturing as the main direction, and promote artificial intelligence to empower new industrialization in an all-round and in-depth manner; With digital infrastructure as the key foundation, we will continue to build new information infrastructure such as 5G and gigabit optical networks ahead of time. With "intelligent transformation and digital transformation" as an important starting point, we will build a number of 5G factories and digital transformation enterprise benchmarks, promote the development and utilization of industrial big data by classification and grading, and create a good ecosystem.

Zheng Shajie also said that he will actively cultivate emerging industries and future industries to create a new engine for development. Strengthen the layout of major projects in key areas such as integrated circuits and new energy vehicles. Forward-looking planning and layout of a number of future industries.

"Strong entities" should promote the healthy development of micro-business entities. According to the data of the State Administration for Market Regulation, as of the end of September this year, there were 181 million registered business entities in the country, an increase of 6.7% from the end of last year, and the total number of business entities reached a new level.

When talking about the work deployment in the fourth quarter, Lan Foan said: "We will continue to strengthen the main position of enterprise innovation, comprehensively use financial subsidies, loan interest discounts, tax incentives and other measures to accelerate the development of strategic emerging industries, support the digital transformation of small and medium-sized enterprises, and further enhance the development momentum." ”

Jin Zhuanglong also pointed out in an interview with reporters that "we will study and introduce a number of measures to promote the high-quality development of specialized, special and new small and medium-sized enterprises." Carry out the joint action of promoting the integration and innovation of large and medium-sized enterprises and the joint chain action of the integration and development of the industrial chain of central enterprises, and drive specialized and special new enterprises to participate in major national engineering projects. ”