It is rumored that Nvidia will launch a new chip for the Chinese market, what do you think of the computing power sector?

At the close of trading today, the Shanghai Composite Index was reported at 3053.28 points, up 0.03%; The Shenzhen Component Index was reported at 10,032.09 points, down 0.20%; The GEM index was reported at 2018.38 points, down 0.23%. The turnover of the two cities was 962.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 74.1 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and more than 3,500 stocks fell. Today, the net inflow of northbound funds was 2.532 billion yuan and the net sale was 64 million yuan, of which the net inflow of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect was 3.488 billion yuan and the net purchase was 2.170 billion yuan, and the net outflow of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect was 956 million yuan and the net sale was 2.234 billion yuan.

Today's October CPI was announced, and in October 2023, the national consumer price index fell by 0.2% year-on-year, returning to below the zero axis. In October, the national consumer price index fell by 0.1% month-on-month. From January to October, the national consumer price index rose by 0.4% over the same period last year.

Due to the CPI data having a certain impact on market confidence, the strong sectors in the early stage of today collectively weakened, the short drama game sector and the "dragon generation" collectively turned off, and Huawei's automobile concept also weakened. However, combined with today's turnover of 960 billion and the Shanghai Composite Index still closing in the red, today's main thing is the release of the early hedging disk and the adjustment of the chip structure, and the market is still waiting for more news from the APEC meeting on the 15th.

According to the "Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily", people familiar with the matter revealed that NVIDIA has developed a new and improved AI chip series specifically for the Chinese market: HGX H20, L20 PCle and L2 PCle. If the news is true, the shortage of computing power supply may be alleviated to a certain extent, but there may still be problems in the supply scale and performance in the short term, and the price of computing power is still expected to be difficult to alleviate in the short term. In addition, domestic substitution is still the general direction, and the semiconductor chip industry can still be tracked. The data center and computing power scheduling sector will also benefit from the continuous growth of the total amount of computing power, and the computing power scheduling sector is a business module that belongs to the "selling shovel" in the computing power industry chain, with high certainty and can continue to pay attention.

In addition, on November 9, OpenAI's ChatGPT and API services experienced a serious outage, resulting in the failure of the user-facing and developer-facing services to work properly. With the continuous implementation of AI on the application side, in addition to the continuous demand for computing power, the network security sector will also be a rigid demand sector with the growth of the industry scale.

1. Whether the turnover can be stabilized at about one trillion yuan.

2. The latest news on NVIDIA's improvement of AI chips.

3. Tomorrow is the last trading day of the week, and after 4 days of adjustment, see if the 5-day moving average of the Shanghai Composite Index can effectively cross the 30-day moving average tomorrow.

4. Pay attention to the direction choice of the securities sector tomorrow, and see whether it is to make up for the gap downward or go up to a new round of market that is yang and yin.

Overview of the broader market

On November 9, the three major A-share indices were mixed. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was reported at 3053.28 points, up 0.03%, with a turnover of 388.6 billion yuan; The Shenzhen Component Index was reported at 10,032.09 points, down 0.20%, with a turnover of 573.9 billion yuan; The GEM index was reported at 2018.38 points, down 0.23%, with a turnover of 278.7 billion yuan. The turnover of the two cities was 962.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 74.1 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and more than 3,500 shares fell.

In terms of capital flow, the net inflow of northbound funds was 2.532 billion yuan and the net sale was 64 million yuan, of which the net inflow of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect was 3.488 billion yuan and the net purchase was 2.170 billion yuan, and the net outflow of Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect was 956 million yuan and the net sale was 2.234 billion yuan. The net outflow of main funds in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 36.724 billion yuan, the net outflow of large orders was 16.350 billion yuan, the net outflow of large orders was 20.373 billion yuan, the net inflow of medium orders was 4.027 billion yuan, and the net inflow of small orders was 32.697 billion yuan.

In terms of plates:

In terms of industry sectors, the coal industry, photovoltaic equipment, electronic chemicals, non-metallic materials and petroleum industries were among the top gainers; In terms of concept plates, BC batteries, TOPCon batteries, VPNs, HIT batteries and human brain engineering were among the top gainers.

The coal industry is on a strong upward trend. Among the constituent stocks in the sector, Yunmei Energy rose by the limit, Pingmei shares rose by more than 7%, Shanxi Coking Coal, Baotailong, Gunkuang Energy and Lu'an Huanneng rose by more than 5%; In the photovoltaic equipment sector, Haitai New Energy and Junda shares rose by the limit, Canadian Solar rose by 9.09%, and Dike shares, Jinko Solar, and Foster rose by more than 5%;

In the electronic chemicals sector, Yangfan New Materials rose by 19.98%, Xilong Science rose by more than 7%, and Lekai New Materials rose by more than 7%; In the BC battery sector, Yubang New Materials, Dier Laser, and Guangxin Materials rose more than 5%; In the TOPCon battery sector, Dike shares and polymeric materials rose by more than 7%; In the VPN sector, Ren Zixing rose by 15.84%, Tianwei Video rose by more than 5%.

In terms of decline, the short drama and game sector "turned off", Haikan shares fell by more than 13%, Baina Qiancheng fell by more than 11%, Tangde Film and Television fell by more than 10%, and Palm Reading Technology fell to the limit; The weight loss drug sector fell first, with Hanyu Pharmaceutical and Nuotai Biotech falling more than 14%, Borui Pharmaceutical falling more than 9%, Changshan Pharmaceutical falling more than 7%, and Shengnuo Biotech falling more than 5%;

"Dragon Generation" stocks fell sharply, Tianlong Group fell more than 17%, Longxi shares, Longyun shares, Tianlong shares and other shares fell to the limit; Huawei's automotive concept stocks weakened, Guanghong Technology 20CM fell to the limit, Cialis fell more than 6%, Longsheng Technology, Bohai Automobile, etc. fell more than 5%, and Yokogawa Precision, BAIC Blue Valley, etc. fell more than 4%.

Market analysis

Overall: Jufeng Investment Consulting believes that in the short term, the market has a high probability of sideways shock adjustment near 3050 points, but the medium-term trend is still upward, and the short-term adjustment is conducive to the correction and accumulation of the stock index. At present, under the background of a series of positive factors such as the accumulation of a series of positive factors such as the continuous development of policies to stabilize growth and stable expectations, the earnings data of listed companies bottoming out, and the Federal Reserve's pause in interest rate hikes to improve the risk appetite of global funds, investor sentiment is expected to further improve, and the overall market opportunities outweigh the risks.

For the market outlook, Chuancai Securities believes that Pan Gongsheng, governor of the central bank, pointed out that monetary policy will pay more attention to cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustment, maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity, support the stable growth of the real economy, and increase support for major strategies, key areas and weak links.

Aijian Securities pointed out that in order to activate the capital market and boost investor confidence, the management has continuously launched relevant policy measures, which has effectively sent a positive signal to the market that the management has activated the capital market. Therefore, repeated volatility in stock indices will continue to be a normal feature in the near future.

Judging from the trend of the representative sectors:

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BC Battery:

On the news side, LONGi Green Energy recently said at the performance briefing that the company chose the direction of BC battery because the use of BC structure on the same technical route can roughly improve the positive conversion efficiency by one percentage point. From the comprehensive point of view of LCOE and other aspects, BC batteries have absolute advantages in terms of performance.

It is reported that at present, the conversion efficiency of PERC cells is close to the bottleneck, and the high-efficiency battery technology routes such as TOPCon, HJT, and IBC are developing rapidly, showing the characteristics of a hundred flowers blooming, among which BC battery technology has attracted much attention inside and outside the industry because of its advantages of high power and low attenuation. As a platform-based technology, BC can be superimposed with various technologies such as TOPCon and HJT to form a variety of technical routes such as TBC and HBC, which will have a broad space for efficiency improvement in the future.

Jia Rui, a researcher and doctoral supervisor at the Institute of Microelectronics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, believes that the current BC battery technology is facing problems such as high technical difficulty and high cost, and with the research and development and technology upgrading of photovoltaic enterprises, BC battery is expected to become one of the mainstream technologies of the next generation of photovoltaics. Shen Hui, director of the Yangtze River Delta Solar Photovoltaic Technology Innovation Center, said that the future of solar cell technology is very clear, including BC cell technology, there is room for development.

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Photovoltaic design

prepare

On the news side, on November 9, according to a number of industry insiders, the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will hold a symposium on photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises to guide the reasonable layout of photovoltaic industry production capacity. Focus on the development status, existing problems and challenges of the photovoltaic industry, guide the reasonable layout of the photovoltaic industry's production capacity, and promote the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry.

In a recent research report, China Securities Construction Investment pointed out that the continuous decline of the photovoltaic sector in the early stage was mainly due to the market's concern about the imbalance between supply and demand. The core of the follow-up plate trend is to look at the time and position when the profitability of the industrial chain bottoms out. The above moment may appear in 24Q1, in the process of moving down the profit center of the industrial chain and tightening the financing environment, it can be seen that the expansion of some links has slowed down significantly, and the photovoltaic industry chain will enter the integration stage in 2024, and the head market share is expected to increase. Therefore, in the medium and long-term dimension, we are currently in a new round of layout period, and high-quality photovoltaic companies are enough to pass through the cycle and are expected to usher in a new round of growth. From the short-term perspective of the market, today's rebound in the photovoltaic sector may be due to the fact that after the collective ebb of the high-level theme, some funds have chosen to make up for the positions.

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Coal Sector:

On the news side, as some northern regions officially enter the heating season, the terminal coal demand has increased rapidly, driving coal prices to rise continuously in the short term. It is reported that at present, the pessimism in the northern ports has eased, the number of terminal inquiries has increased, and the price sentiment of traders has gradually risen. Shanxi, a major coal province, is increasing efforts to increase coal production and ensure supply, and the price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in northern ports has reached about 1,020 yuan per ton.

In terms of imports, overseas coal prices are still strongly supported, and the price difference between domestic and foreign prices remains low. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, the country imported 35.99 million tons of coal in October, a decrease of 14.59% from the previous month, and the growth rate of imported coal is expected to continue to decline. Under the comprehensive impact, it is expected that the coal price center is expected to rebound in the fourth quarter.

Guosheng Securities said that the current market coking coal sector valuation and thermal coal sector valuation inverted, the main reason is that the market expects the thermal coal sector related listed companies to have stronger profit stability, but it should be noted that under the current negative feedback expectation falsification, superimposed with the blessing of winter storage expectations, the coking coal sector has sufficient upward momentum, and the price is expected to return to the high point at the beginning of the year.

In addition, considering the support of the bottom of coking coal prices at the end of June this year, the single-quarter performance in the third quarter is expected to be the bottom of the profitability of the coking coal sector, and the corresponding valuation of the bottom earnings of the coking coal sector is at a low level.

Message-wise

1. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in October 2023, the national consumer price fell by 0.2% year-on-year. Among them, the urban area decreased by 0.1%, and the rural area decreased by 0.5%; Food prices fell by 4.0 percent and non-food prices by 0.7 percent; Prices for consumer goods fell by 1.1 per cent and prices for services rose by 1.2 per cent. From January to October, the national consumer price rose by 0.4 percent over the same period of the previous year. In October, the national consumer price fell by 0.1% month-on-month. Among them, the urban area decreased by 0.1%, and the rural area decreased by 0.1%; Food prices fell by 0.8 percent and non-food prices were flat; Prices for consumer goods fell by 0.1 per cent and those for services by 0.1 per cent. (Bearish market sentiment)

2. On November 9, according to a number of industry insiders, the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to hold a symposium on photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises, focusing on the development status, existing problems and challenges of the photovoltaic industry, guiding the reasonable layout of photovoltaic industry production capacity, and promoting the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry. It is reported that the convening of the enterprises includes the head enterprises in all links of the industrial chain, and the preliminary plan is to be carried out on November 13, and the actual time will be arranged according to the specific situation. (Good for photovoltaic equipment sector)

3. More than 10 "dragon generation" stocks made intensive announcements after hours on the 8th to warn of risks. Among them, 5 Lianban Longyun shares announced that the company's main business has not changed and the production and operation activities are normal. 4. Longxi shares announced that there may be irrational speculation risks, and the company's joint bearing products are not used in the field of robots such as humanoid robots. Tianlong shares announced that the company's current stock price seriously deviates from the reasonable valuation of its peers, and the participating chip companies have not yet made a profit. (Bearish "dragon generation" concept stocks)

4. Musk said in a post on social media platform X on Tuesday that brain-computer interface company Neuralink is working on a "vision chip" that will be ready in a few years. Thousands of people are reportedly "super interested" in volunteering for Musk's Neural Connections company. (Good for the concept of brain-computer interface)

5. The main coking coal contract of DCE once rose by more than 3% intraday, hitting a new high in the past 8 months. Guosheng Securities said that the valuation of the coking coal sector in the current market is inverted with the valuation of the thermal coal sector, and with the support of the expected winter storage, the coking coal sector has sufficient upward momentum, and the price is expected to return to the high point at the beginning of the year. (Good for the coal sector)

6. Today, some media reported that NVIDIA has developed the latest improved series of chips for China: HGX H20, L20 PCle and L2 PCle. According to people familiar with the matter, the latest three chips are improved from H100, and Nvidia may announce it as soon as the 16th of this month, and domestic manufacturers will get the products as soon as these days. (Good Computing Power Concept Section)

7. On the evening of November 8, the ChatGPT and API (third-party service application programming interface) of OpenAI, an American artificial intelligence company, suddenly and seriously shut down, and a large number of netizens said that they could not use it. OpenAI's latest response on Thursday said it was working to address the issue of "abnormal traffic" and showed that hackers were trying to bring its service to a hard stand. (Good for the cyber security sector)