In this chart, in the GDP ranking in 2013, many northerners have been faintly uneasy, because Qingdao has fallen out of the top ten, and in 2020, more northerners are faintly uneasy, because Tianjin has also fallen out of the top ten.
Today, among the top ten, there is only one Beijing left in the north. And Beijing is so special, so many people judge that it is the north that is not good.
Northern cities, but can't do southern cities?▼
But have you noticed that northern coastal cities such as Tianjin and Qingdao have at least entered the top ten. But inland, the provincial capitals along the Yellow River and its tributaries, Jinan, Zhengzhou, and Xi'an, all have a population of 10 million, and the hinterland of nearly 100 million people has never entered the top ten.
In a similar longitude, their neighbors in the Yangtze River basin, Nanjing, Wuhan and Chongqing, are firmly in the top ten.
What is the reason behind the fact that the economic disparity between the inland provincial capitals along the two major rivers in the north and south is so large? Today, we will try to take the Yangtze River and the Yellow River as the starting point to see what is the difference between the two groups of cities in the north and south?
The Yellow River model vs the Yangtze River model, where is the gap?▼
The huge difference comes from the Yangtze River and the Yellow River
The contrast between the north and the south is a very complicated subject, first of all, there are huge internal differences, and the northeast, northwest, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei are not the same thing at all.
Northern cities in different directions have different customs
(Photo: Picture Worm Creativity)▼
The three provincial capitals of Jinan, Zhengzhou and Xi'an have similar population, GDP and population hinterland. Although Shaanxi has a population of less than 40 million, Xi'an, as the gateway to the northwest, also has a strong attraction to other northwest provinces, and the population hinterland is actually very large.
The three cities also have one thing in common: they are all along the Yellow River and its tributaries. The Yellow River here is not equal to the Yellow River Basin, for example, Zhengzhou is on the Yellow River, but it belongs to the Huai River Basin.
The three cities of Jinan, Zhengzhou and Xi'an are relatively close in latitude▼
Nanjing, Wuhan and Chongqing along the Yangtze River also have a population of 10 million, facing each other from east to west, and facing each other from north to south with the three northern cities. Even Hefei and Shijiazhuang, which are next to them, seem to have some similarities with Changsha and Taiyuan, forming a peculiar contrast.
The three cities of Nanjing, Wuhan and Chongqing are also very similar in latitude▼
In 2022, the sum of the GDP of the three northern cities will be about 3.6 trillion yuan (3,644.9 billion yuan), which is only a little more than half of the three southern cities (6,490.3 billion yuan). The per capita GDP of 103,000 (103432 yuan) in the northern three cities is also slightly lower than that of the southern three cities (117232 yuan).
▼
An important geographical reason behind this is the difference between the Yangtze River and the Yellow River. This difference has been ignored by many people because of the development of railways, after all, the northern provincial capitals are mostly due to the rise of railways, and now high-speed railways extend in all directions. However, from the perspective of logistics capacity, the advantages of the Yangtze River, a golden waterway, are still irreplaceable.
Zhengzhou, one of the provincial capitals that rose because of the railway
(Photo: Picture Worm Creativity)▼
In 2022, the total railway volume of the country will be 4.98 billion tons (2022 Statistical Bulletin on the Development of the Transportation Industry), while the river freight volume in the Yangtze River basin will be 6.17 billion tons (2022 waterway transport market development and 2023 market outlook). By contrast, the Yellow River's freight volume is almost negligible, and if shipping improves in the future, it may reach 200 million tons, a fraction of the Yangtze River's share.
How much does the Yellow River pull its crotch?
From the map, we can see that the Yangtze River and its main tributaries connect nine provincial-level administrative centers from Shanghai to Chengdu, and the Yellow River connects eight provincial-level administrative centers from Jinan to Xining. If the rivers are powerful enough, they are two golden waterways.
The Yellow River and the Yangtze River connect many important cities in China▼
It's a pity that the conditions of the Yellow River are too stretched, and the Yangtze River, such as the same mud river and dry river, has a runoff of 58 billion cubic meters and is even worse than the Ganjiang River, a tributary of the Yangtze River (64.8 billion cubic meters of the Ganjiang River, 58 billion cubic meters of the Yellow River, and 966 billion cubic meters of the Yangtze River).
Thanks to its abundant water, the Yangtze River has reached the summit of the world's longest and largest inland waterway in terms of cargo volume. Even in the dry season, it can ensure the passage of waterways below Wuhan, and even Hengyang, Hunan Province has built an inland port, which is equivalent to the central part of Shanxi in the north, which can be directly connected to the Bohai Sea by boat.
Hengping - Yangtze River main channel and main ports ▼
This shows that the Yangtze River can fully integrate the resources and population of millions of square kilometers in the basin, and can even pass through the Beijing-Hangzhou Canal to Jining in the north and Hangzhou in the south. And the Yellow River can guarantee shipping between several sections of the main line, thank God.
The navigable conditions of the Yellow River are far inferior to those of the Yangtze River▼
In addition, the Yangtze River is closer to the Malacca-Suez global shipping artery, and 50,000-ton sea cargo ships can sail to the port of Nanjing, while the newly opened Jinan port in the lower reaches of the Yellow River is only a 1,000-ton berth.
In terms of geographical location, the Yangtze River also has more shipping advantages▼
Obviously, the biggest disadvantage of the Yellow River is the lack of water, the Yangtze River is located in the subtropical monsoon region, with an average precipitation of 1000~1200 mm. The middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River are only 200~400 mm, and the lower reaches of Yulu Province are only 500 mm, and the seasonal and inter-annual variations of precipitation are very large, resulting in the Yellow River either flooding or simply cutting off.
400 mm isoprecipitation line
It is the boundary between semi-humid and semi-arid regions in China
There are many areas in the Yellow River Basin below the 400 mm line▼
The geographical "several" bays of the Yellow River also fragmented the entire river. After passing through the arid Hetao area, too much water has been consumed, and the Jin-Shaanxi Grand Canyon and Hukou Waterfall in the middle reaches are almost the ghost gate of water transportation, and the north-south latitude difference of the "several" bay has also led to the occurrence of flood phenomena from time to time, and the navigation conditions have deteriorated.
In this boiling yellow waterfall
It's hard to imagine how a ship should sail
(Photo: Picture Worm Creativity)▼
Even in the lower reaches of the river, the water depth is only 2-3 meters, and it is generally an above-ground hanging river, with basically no large tributaries, and the importance of flood control is much greater than that of shipping. In Zhengzhou, on the south bank of the Yellow River, the rivers in the area basically flow into the Huai River, and the only river port below Zhengzhou is Jinan Port.
This set of debuffs down, the Yellow River actually has shipping value, only a few local sections such as Sanmenxia to Xiaolangdi, and Hengyang, far away in Hunan, can reach the river and the sea.
Hengping - The Yellow River, which flows through Henan, is only partially navigable
Shipping mainly depends on the Huai River and its tributaries▼
According to the "waterway cargo transportation volume from January to July 2023", the indicators of Jiangsu, Hubei and Chongqing, where the southern three cities are located, are about 650 million tons, 380 million tons, and 120 million tons, while the indicators of Shandong, Henan, and Shaanxi, where the northern three cities are located, are about 140 million tons, 110 million tons, and 240,000 tons.
▼
Although Shandong and Henan are above 10,000 tons, they have nothing to do with the Yellow River. Shandong's indicators mainly come from maritime transportation and the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal, while Henan's indicators are mainly from the Huai River, the Han River and their tributaries. Shaanxi's 240,000 tons are all from the upper reaches of the Han River. In other words, the Yellow River contributed almost nothing to the water transport of these three provinces, which is really miserable!
It can also be seen from the satellite images of the three cities in the north and south that compared with the various ports and wharves lined up in the three cities in the south, the banks of the Yellow River in the north three cities are deserted, and the income from shipping is naturally negligible.
Nanjing Port can bring 800-100 billion GDP added value to Nanjing in a year. And Jinan just opened to traffic last year.
Left slide - comparison of satellite images along the coast of the three cities in the north and south
(Bottom map: Google Map)▼
Behind the rivers, there are also differences in development models
River conditions affect not only shipping and the economy, but also people, information and perceptions, which in turn affect the social climate and the business environment. After all, it is the choices of countless individuals that make up the macro vocabulary of urban economy and urban belt.
The convenience of communication within the Yangtze River basin has made every city and hundreds of millions of people in it part of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, but the Yellow River has no such role, and even has the negative effect of isolating the north and south banks.
Hengping-Yangtze River Economic Belt Regional Map▼
The southern three cities in the Yangtze River basin have formed a close-knit and well-developed urban agglomeration. Along the Yellow River, in addition to the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration where Jinan is located, the Central Plains urban agglomeration and the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration have not formed a close internal connection, and the major provincial capitals in the north often operate separately in their own territory, stubbornly guarding one acre and three points of land, their economic hinterland seems to be very large, but compared with the complex internal division of labor of the southern urban agglomeration, it is actually much smaller.
▼
On the other hand, trains run fast because of the headband, and the "locomotive" city is very important. Shanghai is the "locomotive" of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and as a key connection point between China and the world, its capital, industry, technology, operation and management can all radiate to the inland hinterland.
Beijing, the "locomotive" in the north, is far away from the Yellow River and cannot reach it, and its influence on Jinan, Zhengzhou, and Xi'an is much weaker.
Shanghai, the "locomotive", brought prosperity inland
(Photo: Yitu.com)▼
The reason behind this is the river, and it is precisely because of the navigable value of the Yangtze River that Shanghai, the estuary, can enjoy a very high location advantage and drive the upstream in reverse. Dongying, the estuary of the Yellow River, is just a natural and geographical estuary, and many netizens still think that the Yellow River can be connected to the Korean Peninsula, which also shows how unstable the river is geographically.
The Yellow River estuary is really unable to build a port
(The estuary of the Yellow River Delta, photo: Symbiotic Earth)▼
Because the value of the Yellow River estuary is too low, the three northern cities can only find another way to the ocean, Qingdao and Lianyungang are optional, Lianyungang is still the starting point of the so-called second Eurasian land bridge, and Rotterdam is far away, but in fact, the goods along the Yellow River go to sea from these two ports, but also go through land and water transshipment, the cost is not advantageous.
The Yellow River is still a little far from these two ports▼
Moreover, Shandong's coastal and inland areas are very different, and cooperation with Henan and Shaanxi is limited to logistics. My colleagues in Henan Province would target Zhengzhou, Beijing, and Shanghai instead of Qingdao and Lianyungang.
It is a series of geographical fractures that have led to regional economic fractures, hindered the efficiency of the division of labor in northern cities, and also affected market investment and national policy tendencies.
For example, the state's positioning of the Yangtze River is more economical, highlighting the mainland's characteristic of being the "main artery of comprehensive development", while the positioning of the Yellow River puts ecological protection as the top priority.
▼
Objectively speaking, although there is still a big gap between the two major river basins at the GDP level, the three northern cities are also working hard to make up for their shortcomings compared with before.
For example, Jinan has completed the resumption of navigation of the Xiaoqing River, which was opened to navigation at the end of June this year, and the Jinan Port is expected to have a cargo throughput of 10.4 million tons in 2025 and 20.7 million tons in 2035.
Horizontal screen - schematic diagram of the resumption of navigation project of Xiaoqing River▼
Zhengzhou, as a key city in Henan's "connecting the river to the sea" project, plans to start construction of Zhengzhou Port in December this year, and the sea-rail intermodal transport between Qingdao and Zhengzhou has also been able to seamlessly connect, moving Qingdao's port function forward to Zhengzhou's railway container center station, which is equivalent to moving Qingdao's sea outlet to the gate of Henan.
Not only can you go to sea from Qingdao, but you can also work with
Tianjin Port, Lianyungang Port, Ningbo Port and other ports are united
Truly realize that you can "go to sea" without relying on the sea
(Photo: dahe.cn)▼
However, these efforts are far from being able to offset the huge gap in economic value between the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, as well as the resulting first-mover advantage that is difficult to catch up.
If northern cities want to find a new track that suits them, in addition to hardware investment, they must also liberate the value of "people". After all, no matter how good the resources and conditions are, they are also for people. If the social environment derived from the natural environment forms a double restriction on people, that is the most difficult problem to solve.