Recently, the American "War Zone" reported that Israel has gathered about 400,000 troops and more than 300 tanks to plan a large-scale operation in the Gaza Strip. However, due to multiple factors, including U.S. appeals and bad weather, Israel is likely to delay its ground offensive, which is not expected to launch until next week at the earliest. The decision raises questions about when the Israeli army will begin a large-scale ground offensive. Despite Israel's military might, it faces a number of considerations, including whether it is adequately prepared for war and how to reduce possible casualties.
The Gaza Strip is densely populated, and for an effective ground offensive, the evacuation of civilians must begin with it. Unlike air strikes, ground warfare can lead to hand-to-hand combat, which means that many losses will be uncontrollable. In an effort to reduce a possible humanitarian catastrophe, Israel two days ago demanded that the 1.1 million Palestinian residents of northern Gaza withdraw to the south within 24 hours. The operation was claimed to be aimed at ensuring safety, but the first evacuation convoys were hit by Israeli airstrikes, killing 70 people and injuring more than 200. This could be a sign that the evacuation operation may not go well.
At present, all parties, including the United Nations, are calling on Israel to exercise restraint in order to avoid the expansion of the war. Iran, in particular, a country with a strong armed force, warned Israel that Iran's Revolutionary Guards and Allah forces would be involved in the fight if a large-scale ground operation was carried out in the Gaza Strip. This could lead to the conflict expanding to other parts of the Middle East, and Israel would face a huge threat. Although this is a threat of war, it is not impossible.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps is strong enough to rival Israel, while Allah has a strong presence in Lebanon, having participated in the Syrian civil war and accumulated extensive combat experience. It is estimated that Allah has 40,000 militants, and with the reserves, the total may exceed 60,000. They have about 300,000 rockets and missiles, some of which can even cover Israel's territory, and in past battles, Allah has even exchanged one-to-one ratios with Israel. External support from Iran and Allah, who have made clear their support for Hamas and are in conflict with Israel, is also crucial.
The Hamas armed forces are undergoing a transition from amateur to professional, and they have demonstrated a variety of combat methods, including simultaneous air, sea and air attacks, which have dealt a major blow to Israel. In the complex urban labyrinth of Gaza, Hamas forces will take advantage of the terrain to set up strongholds, use tunnels and sewers, and engage in street fighting. In addition, Hamas has a large number of anti-tank weapons, including anti-tank missiles and rockets, which will pose a significant threat to Israel's armored vehicles. As a result, Israel will face enormous challenges, especially in urban battles, where casualties can be very high.
In addition, Hamas has a large reserve of ammunition and can launch attacks on Israeli logistics facilities, which will cause great distress to the Israeli army. Despite the fact that Israel has an advanced "Iron Dome" air defense system, it has already shown instability under a supersaturation attack. In addition, Hamas has also used drones to carry out attacks, which has further exacerbated Israel's logistical difficulties. The tunnel network is an important tactical tool for Hamas, who have built a well-established underground transportation network in Gaza for many years. All of this will make Israel's operations in urban environments more complex and difficult.
Overall, a large-scale Israeli ground offensive must take into account a number of factors, including humanitarian issues, logistical support, the threat of anti-tank weapons, and the complex urban fighting environment. In the current situation, it does not seem easy to wage a ground war, and Israel has to face external pressure and the risk of casualties, which are important factors to consider.