Moutai price increase: Wang Chaocheng, Yang Guang, Wang Chuancai, Liu Shengsong, Li Huaijie... Look at it this way

On the evening of October 31, Kweichow Moutai issued the "Kweichow Moutai Major Events Announcement", saying that from November 1, the ex-factory price of Kweichow Moutai (Feitian, five-star) will be raised by 53%vol, with an average increase of about 20%, and this ex-factory price adjustment does not involve market guidance prices. That is to say, the ex-factory price of Pumao has been raised to 1169 yuan, but the market guidance price for consumers is 1499 yuan / bottle unchanged for the time being.

As soon as the news came out, it sparked heated discussions and discussions.

In this regard, Liu Liqing, senior trader of the liquor industry and general manager of Capital Liquor and Zhonghua Liquor, Wang Chaocheng, chairman of Shengchu Group, Yang Guang, chairman of Beijing Zhengyitang Strategic Consulting Agency, Liu Shengsong, general manager of Counseling Consulting Co., Ltd. and other experts shared different views at the first time. (Ideas are listed in order of submission time)

Liu Liqing

Liu Liqing, general manager of Capital Liquor and China Liquor, said that in general, the big consumption sector is very happy, the industry is very excited, peers are very excited, dealers are very lonely, and consumers hurry to play the time difference. In his opinion, there are six benefits brought by Moutai's price increase: (the order of views is arranged by the time of submission)

The first is to lead consumption. As a vanguard to stimulate consumption, the FTSE China A50 Index rebounded immediately after Moutai raised prices, and the capital market has reacted. It is believed that Moutai will have a rhythm of rising and falling, and Moutai's stock should grow from more than 1,600 points to 2,400 points within the year.

Second, it has further opened the ceiling of the liquor industry, sounded the charge for a new round of growth of the liquor industry, will promote the bottoming out of the liquor industry, and will also play a huge leading role in high-end soy sauce wine and sub-high-end soy sauce wine.

The third is to ensure the double growth of revenue and profit during the 14th Five-Year Plan period of Moutai. At the same time, it also solves the imbalance between the interests of the state, shareholders, and dealers.

Fourth, the price is closer to the value, so that the value of Moutai can be highlighted. Let's wait for Wuliangye and Guojiao to deal with it.

Fifth, in the short term, it will stimulate the retail price of loose bottles from 2,650 yuan/bottle to quickly break through 3,000 yuan/bottle again, and may be too strong to 3,200 yuan/bottle, but it will still fall back to less than 3,000 yuan/bottle. In the long run, there is actually a slight reduction in the room for speculation.

Sixth, the retail guide price may be increased to 1799 yuan / bottle in accordance with the law of the market, which should be a matter of time, so consumers who can buy 1499 yuan should hurry up.

At the same time, Liu Liqing also pointed out that Moutai's price increase is open to discussion in four aspects:

First, the price increase is a bit late, which is a remedy. There is no 5% drop in stocks in a single day, and it does not stimulate a bottoming rally. Moutai's ex-factory price of 969 yuan/bottle and the guide price of 1499 yuan/bottle have long deviated from the positioning of China's high-end consumers.

Second, the price increase of 200 yuan is too conservative. The correct price increase should be at least 30% to 1269. in order to keep up with the growth of China's economy and the upgrading of consumption.

Third, the guide price does not change in line with the law of the market. According to the dealer's 50% price increase space, this price increase, the guide price should be increased to at least 1799 yuan / bottle (if the ex-factory price is normally increased to 1269 yuan / bottle, the guide price should be increased to 1999 yuan / bottle), the guide price is still implemented 1499 yuan / bottle, which is a disregard for the interests of dealers and will cause dissatisfaction among dealers.

The fourth is to control the balance of quantity and price, mainly to solve the channel speculation space. Only by reducing the deformed profits of the channel can the driving force of speculation be reduced. Therefore, Moutai narrows the price difference between the guide price and the actual retail price is the king, which can further enhance its control.

Li Huaijie

Li Huaijie, chairman of Anhui Gujing Boju Liquor Industry and senior research expert of Famous Wine Observation, shared some views. (Ideas are listed in order of submission time)

As the core single product of Moutai, Pu Mao is a banner of China's liquor industry, and the price increase of Pu Mao is good for Moutai itself and the development of the sub-high-end of China's liquor industry, but Pu Mao has not risen in place;

Pumao price increase, the biggest pressure is Wuliangye, the current price is upside down, Wuliangye price increase or not? From the perspective of long-term development, Wuliangye must increase the price this time, and it is best to increase the price to 1169;

After the price of Moutai rises, the amount of 500 yuan and 1,000 yuan price band will increase; However, I would like to remind Moutai to prepare for a national-level entity "China Old Liquor Trading Market" as soon as possible, open up Moutai's collection reservoir and realization channels, and continue to expand Moutai's collection group to entrepreneurs, so as to build a dam for the price of Moutai's old liquor and protect the terminal price and scarcity of Moutai; It is also necessary to release the old wine trading guide price of Moutai and other famous Chinese liquors every year!

Dynasty Cheng

Wang Chaocheng, chairman of Shengchu Group, believes that Moutai's price increase has three major impacts. (Ideas are listed in order of submission time)

First, a new round of liquor industry has entered a period of adjustment, as the macro pressure on the liquor industry has become greater, Moutai has judged the situation, seized the opportunity, and let the ex-factory price return to the rising channel, which can weaken the pressure of social public opinion and bring impetus to the sustainable growth of performance.

Second, the long-term high price difference between the price and batch price of Moutai provides market feasibility for Moutai to raise prices, and the high profits of dealers and the unprecedented price difference are unprecedented, which is neither healthy nor conducive to the return of shareholders of the distillery.

Third, the price increase of Pumao may also bring spillover effects to the industry:

First of all, the current market consumption is not hot, especially the downturn in high-end consumption, which will not lead to a sharp rise in wholesale prices and retail prices, and the social impact of the industry is the lowest;

Secondly, the price increase of Moutai's core products will trigger the expectation of price increases for brands such as Wuliangye, which will bring operational possibilities for other brands to enter the strategic adjustment of "volume reduction and price increase", which will provide the possibility for the healthy and sustainable development of high-end and sub-high-end brands of Chinese liquor.

Finally, the price increase of Moutai's core products also makes it possible for Moutai itself to better deal with the benign structure of "Pumao volume and price", "Pumao growth and other products of the group", the so-called "one move wins, all the plates are alive"! Practice has proved that the market-oriented industry calls for a market-oriented business strategy, and any action that distorts the marketization is not normal and is not conducive to the healthy development of the industry, and will eventually return to the right track.

Wang Chuancai

Wang Chuancai, chief expert of Chuancai Strategic Think Tank, said that the spillover effect of Moutai's price increase may be very limited, and it is more based on the adjustment of Moutai's "internal interest structure", and the most important thing is that this price increase only adjusts the supply price, and does not adjust the market guidance price, and Moutai has the ability to deeply control the market guidance price.

Yang Guang

Yang Guang, chairman of Beijing Zhengyitang Strategic Consulting Agency, believes that (the order of views is arranged by the time of submission) first, the essence of this price increase is to stabilize the price, and through this price increase, the future development of Moutai is described in four words, as stable as Mount Tai.

Second, Moutai is stable, the development of the entire industry is relatively stable, which is a major positive for the industry, then specifically, one is to inject a strong agent into the entire soy sauce and liquor industry, first of all, the products of Moutai shares, Moutai Group products, I think they are more stable, the development momentum is stronger, and it is also good for the soy sauce and liquor enterprises in the Chihe River Basin.

Third, reduce the pressure of Moutai 1935, the price of Moutai 1935 to stabilize the price, in addition, I think it is a good for the sub-high-end, it is a good for the whole industry, but the core is a good for the sub-high-end, in addition, this year, the price of the national cellar has also risen, and the next thing to look at Wuliangye, so the industry will undergo some changes. It may be good to solve the current price inversion of the industry as a whole.

Fourth, strengthen and increase Moutai's collection attributes and investment attributes, because Moutai's consumption attributes are very strong, this price increase, Moutai's gift attributes will increase, and the value of Moutai's drinking, Tibet, sending, and investment will be enhanced.

Fifth, for the industry, I think it is definitely a major positive, it is to inject a booster into the soy sauce and wine industry, a booster for the sub-high-end, and a booster for the collection of Moutai people.

Sixth, I often say that the industry is waiting for the wind to come, and Moutai instigated a warm wind this time, which came in a timely manner and brought a warm current to the industry. Create a "Mao warm wind".

Liu Shengsong

Liu Shengsong, general manager of Counseling Consulting Co., Ltd., said that (the order of views is arranged according to the time of submission) Moutai's price increase is definitely good for the industry, and the high-end price ceiling of the industry will be opened again, which will be beneficial to the entire soy sauce wine market. It's also a very big confidence boost. In addition, for the entire waist price products in the industry, the industry is generally "strengthening the waist", leaving a huge space for the further expansion of waist products.

In the long run, the top brands will closely follow the industry ceiling, and then enhance their brand value and product stalls. to deal with the brand competition of the future.