Another fund manager took over the liquor: after the high position, the stock price continued to plummet

Sharp eyes on finance

2024-05-06 17:06Posted on the official account of Beijing Ruiyan Finance

When I was young, I didn't know the aroma of liquor, and I mistakenly filled up the warehouse with technology. On the first trading day after May Day, the A-share liquor suddenly exploded, will it attract thousands of troops to increase the position of liquor stocks?

The performance plummeted, the stock price rose and fell, and the liquor was exhausted?

Today (May 6), the first trading day after the holiday, A-share finance and insurance took the stage, liquor led the sharp rise, and the stock king Moutai rose by more than 3% in a rare day. Moutai's sharp rise naturally led all A-share liquor stocks to explode, and the third-tier liquor drunkards pulled the price limit strongly, and the market value returned to above 18 billion.

(Screenshot of the drunkard's time-sharing trend on May 6)

You must know that since the high level of liquor stocks in September 2021, the share price of alcoholic liquor has fallen by more than 82%, and the market value has shrunk from a maximum of 88.618 billion to 15.769 billion at the end of April this year, and the market value has evaporated by more than 72.8 billion in two and a half years!

When the market value fell to the lowest, the 2023 annual report and the first quarter report of 2024 released by Drunkard Liquor were really unsightly, and the performance cut in half was only the "starting price".

According to the financial report of Alcoholic Liquor on April 29, the revenue in 2023 will be 2.83 billion, down 30.14% year-on-year, the net profit will be 548 million, down 47.77% year-on-year, and the non-net profit will be 538 million, down 48.85% year-on-year, and the revenue in the first quarter of 2024 will be 494 million, down 48.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 73.3803 million, down 75.56% year-on-year, and 69.5072 million non-net profit, down 76.75% year-on-year.

This degree of decline in performance can only be said to be okay for the two financial reports of the drunkard, because there is an even more ugly indicator, and the operating cash flow is not enough to describe as a plummet!

The operating cash flow of alcoholic liquor will plummet by 87.21% in the 2023 annual report and 259.83% in the first quarter of 2024.

(Screenshot of Drunkard Liquor's 2023 financial report)

(Screenshot of the first quarter report of Drunkard Liquor in 2024)

The impact of these two financial reports on alcoholic investors should be said to be quite large. The last time this happened to alcoholics should be back in 2013 and 2014 when the alcoholic plasticizer incident broke out.

At the end of 2012, alcoholic liquor was found to have excessive plasticizers, which caused a strong "big earthquake" in the liquor industry at that time. The plasticizer incident led to a comprehensive collapse in the performance of alcoholic liquor in 2013, and the operating cash flow plummeted by more than 300%, and alcoholic liquor was almost on the verge of delisting.

(Screenshot of the 2013 financial report of Alcoholic Liquor)

However, after a lapse of 10 years, when the operating cash flow plummeted again, the market seemed to feel that there was no worse time, and the stock price began to rebound continuously.

Tens of billions of slogans are no longer shouted, and the sales pressure is too great?

The domestic liquor industry may be a worse time now, but it is not the worst time, and it is difficult to say.

It's not just the changes in financial performance, but there have actually been many "changes" within the alcoholic since the second half of last year. First of all, in October last year, it was rumored that the sales pressure of alcoholic liquor was too great to stop taking orders, and then in December last year, the strategic goal of alcoholic liquor shifted to "boutique liquor enterprises", and no longer shouted the target slogan of "tens of billions of liquor enterprises", and then at the end of February this year, drunkard liquor said to the outside world that "at this stage, it will not attract large-scale investment, but to further improve the quality of existing distributors", and then there is the change of chairman of alcoholic liquor, and alcoholic liquor insists on "marketing model transformation......

(Screenshot of the announcement of the drunkard's liquor research record)

At the annual Alcoholic Liquor Conference, Deputy General Manager Zheng Yi said, "In 2024, our goal is to achieve the recovery growth of alcoholics."

In fact, judging from the financial performance of alcoholic liquor in recent years, the sales pressure of alcoholic liquor is indeed relatively large, and the slogan of "10 billion sales" seems to be an unattainable goal!

From 2019 to the present, the financial performance of Alcoholic Liquor has experienced a round of "roller coaster" market like its soaring and plummeting stock price.

2021 is the time when the stock price of alcoholic liquor is the highest, and it is also the best time for the company's performance, the revenue and net profit of that year have reached a historical record, the operating cash flow is more than 1.5 billion, and the advance collection has also hit a record high, but the accounts receivable has not increased significantly, and the inventory turnover is also the fastest since 2019, indicating that the sales were indeed hot at that time.

However, everything has changed since 2021!

Since 2021, the inventory of alcoholic liquor has increased from 1.269 billion to 1.557 billion, but the revenue has decreased from 3.414 billion to 2.83 billion, resulting in a significant decline in inventory turnover. In this case, the only choice that alcoholic liquor can choose is "marketing transformation" to increase marketing efforts to promote and sell goods, and the result is that the sales expenses will increase from 424 million in 2020 to 912 million in 2023, and the sales expenses invested in the first quarter of this year alone will be as high as 168 million.

(Source: Straight Flush website)

(Source: Straight Flush website)

Obviously, the marketing transformation does not seem to have any effect, and the sales expenses are invested, but the revenue is not increasing but falling.

Heavy position drunkards, top fund managers suffer huge losses

However, there is such a "big injustice" in the circle of public fund managers, who set up a new fund and re-positioned liquor when the liquor stock market was at its best, and re-positioned liquor at the best time for liquor sales, and really ate a "deflated" result.

This fund manager is Jiao Wei, the 10 billion "top stream" of Yinhua Fund.

Jiao Wei has a product under its management called Yinhua Fuli Select Mix, which began to raise funds on August 10, 2020, and ended the fundraising in advance in only one day, and was formally established on August 13, 2020.

(Data source: Tiantian Fund Network)

Not to mention anything else, the timing of the "top stream" Jiao Wei's heavy position in alcoholic liquor can be said to be quite accurate, because the last madness of the stock price of alcoholic liquor occurred in the second quarter of 2021, and its stock price soared by nearly 70% in a single quarter, and then it fell endlessly.

(Screenshot of the stock price trend of drunkard wine)

This kind of operation seems to be worthy of its title of "top stream", after all, many domestic fund managers do not operate like this!

The result?

Bank Futura Select was established only more than 3 years ago, the largest time of the fund was the day it was officially established, the net assets of the fund were 9.886 billion, 3 years have passed, the net value of the fund has been cut in half, the latest net value is 0.6038, the cumulative profit loss during the period is 479 million, but the management fee of 214 million has been collected. At present, the size of the fund is only 1.937 billion.

(Data source: Tiantian Fund Network)

Some people may want to say that Jiao Wei of Yinhua is still okay, and the cumulative return rate of Yinhua Wealthy Theme managed by him has been nearly 800% since its inception. That's, but you must know that Jiao Wei only took over the Yinhua Wealthy Theme on December 27, 2018, and the net value of the fund increased by 101.41% during his management, but the fund profit was only 350 million, and the management fee was 1.063 billion, and the loss exceeded 10 billion in the past three years, like other "top streams"!

Yes, liquor is indeed a scarce resource in A-shares, a rare business model that can obtain stable cash flow, and history has also proved that holding liquor for a long time will get good returns, but the operation method like Jiao Wei buying alcoholic liquor can only result in losing money.

Until now, even if the liquor industry is really exhausted, when will the people who hold the Yinhua Rich Theme and Yinhua Fuli Selection rely on fund managers like Jiao Wei to return to their capital?

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