The Taiwan Strait issue is an important and sensitive issue between China and the United States, and it is also a key factor affecting bilateral relations and regional security. In recent years, with the rise of China and the strategic shift of the United States, the situation in the Taiwan Strait has become increasingly tense, and the differences and frictions between the two sides on the Taiwan Strait issue have been intensifying.
On the one hand, the United States has continuously provided arms sales and political support to Taiwan, and on the other hand, it has frequently sent warships, aircraft and high-level officials to visit Taiwan in an attempt to break the one-China principle and the political foundation of Sino-US relations as defined in the three Sino-US joint communiques. China, on the other hand, resolutely opposes US interference and provocation, stresses its determination and ability to safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity, and does not rule out the possibility of using force to resolve the Taiwan issue.
In this context, some US think tanks and media have begun to carry out various wargaming exercises to explore whether the United States can intervene and defeat China in the event of a war in the Taiwan Strait.
One of the more compelling deductions is that the Air Force concludes, based on the results of simulation exercises, that the U.S. military can use next-generation technology to "defeat" the PLA in a hypothetical "Taiwan Strait conflict," but that would come at a heavy cost, and the U.S. military could need to deploy up to 80 percent of its naval and air forces.
80% of the navy and air force seems like a lot, but if you put it another way, it is that the US military can defeat the PLA in the Taiwan Strait by deploying 80% of its troops.
Is such a conclusion really reliable?
Can the United States mobilize 80% of its troops to participate in the war in the Taiwan Strait? According to data at the beginning of 2021, the US Air Force has a total of about 150 fifth-generation fighters such as F-22 and 300 F-35s, and about 1,000 fourth-generation fighters such as F-15s and F-16s.
The U.S. Navy has 11 aircraft carriers (one Ford-class is not yet in service) and 89 surface combatants of various types. If calculated according to 80% of the troops, then the United States will send at least 120 F-22, 240 F-35, 800 F-15/F-16 and other fighters, as well as 9 aircraft carriers and more than 70 destroyers, cruisers and other surface ships.
This scale is equivalent to concentrating all existing aircraft carrier battle groups in the Taiwan Strait.
Is this feasible? Apparently unlikely. Because the United States must not only face China's tough attitude on the Taiwan Strait issue, but also take into account the security situation and interests of other regions.
For example, in the Middle East, the United States also has to deal with changes in the situation in Iran, Iraq, Syria and other countries, in Europe, the United States also has to deal with the relationship between Russia, NATO and other allies, in Africa and Latin America, the United States also has to deal with terrorism, drug trafficking and other threats, in the Indo-Pacific region, the United States also has to deal with the nuclear issues of North Korea, India, Pakistan and other countries.
It is impossible for the United States to concentrate all its forces in the Taiwan Strait and ignore the security risks and interests of other regions. Doing so will not only harm the global strategic interests of the United States, but also cause dissatisfaction and backlash from US allies and adversaries.
Even if the United States mobilizes 80% of its troops to participate in the war in the Taiwan Strait, can it really defeat China? Here we should analyze from two aspects, one is hard power and the other is soft power. Hard power mainly refers to factors such as weapons and equipment, force size, and combat capability, while soft power mainly refers to factors such as political will, public support, and diplomatic relations.
From the perspective of hard power, although the United States has certain advantages in fifth-generation fighters and aircraft carriers, China is not without means of countermeasures. For example, in terms of anti-ship missiles, China has long-range anti-ship ballistic missiles such as the DF-21D and DF-26, as well as long-range anti-ship cruise missiles such as YJ-62 and YJ-83, which have the characteristics of high speed, stealth and maneuver, which can pose a serious threat to the US aircraft carrier battle group.
In terms of air defense missiles, China has long-range air defense missiles such as Hongqi-9B and Hongqi-16, as well as short-range air defense missiles such as Hongqi-10 and Hongqi-15, all of which have the characteristics of high sensitivity, high hit rate and high interception height, which can effectively block US air power. In terms of electronic warfare, China has electronic warfare aircraft such as the J-16D and J-10C, as well as electronic reconnaissance satellites such as Shenzhou-6 and Shenzhou-7, all of which have powerful jamming, eavesdropping, deception and other capabilities, which can cause serious damage to the US military's command and control system.
In terms of cyber warfare, China has a large and specialized cyber warfare force that can attack and defend against U.S. military information systems. In terms of artificial intelligence, China has a number of advanced and innovative artificial intelligence enterprises and research institutions, which can provide intelligent solutions for the military field. In short, in terms of hard power, China already has the potential and ability to compete with or even surpass the United States.
In terms of soft power, the United States is even less dominant. First, in terms of political will, is the United States really willing to go to war with China for the sake of Taiwan? That's a big question mark.
This is because the Taiwan issue is China's core interests, an issue related to China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and an issue related to the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and national dignity. The Chinese Government and people will never compromise or back down on this issue. And the United States? Taiwan is just a pawn for the United States, and does not involve the core interests and survival security of the United States.
If there is a war with China for the sake of Taiwan, will the United States risk a full-scale war with China? This is a big question. Because the United States must take into account not only the costs and consequences of the war, but also the public opinion and public opinion at home. Public opinion and public opinion in the United States are not very concerned about the Taiwan issue and are not very supportive.
According to a September 2021 survey, only 38 percent of Americans believe the United States should protect Taiwan if it is attacked by China, while 58 percent believe the United States should remain neutral or unaware. This shows that the public opinion in the United States has not formed a strong consensus in favor of Taiwan, but there are great differences and hesitations.
If the US government forcibly intervenes in the war in the Taiwan Strait in disregard of public opinion and public opinion, it may cause domestic opposition and protests, and may even lead to political crisis and social unrest.
In terms of diplomatic relations, can the United States have the support and cooperation of its allies and partners? This is also a big difficulty.
This is because not all of America's allies and partners agree with the U.S. position and approach on the Taiwan Strait issue, nor are they willing to break with China or go to war for Taiwan's sake. For example, in Europe, the EU and its member states adhere to the one-China policy and maintain close economic and trade cooperation and people-to-people exchanges with China.
Europe does not see the Taiwan issue as its core interest, nor does it see China as its enemy or rival. Europe is more concerned about maintaining regional peace and stability, as well as promoting global governance and multilateral cooperation. Therefore, Europe is less likely to support or participate in US military intervention in the Taiwan Strait, but prefers to solve the problem through dialogue and negotiation.
For example, in Asia, although Japan, South Korea, Australia and other countries have security alliances or partnerships with the United States, they also have important economic interests and geographical relations with China. These countries do not want to see conflict or war between China and the United States, nor do they want to be forced to choose or take sides between China and the United States.
These countries are more concerned with protecting their own interests and security, as well as maintaining regional order and balance. Therefore, these countries are also less likely to support or participate in U.S. military intervention in the Taiwan Strait, preferring to ease tensions and crises through diplomacy and communication.
The deployment of 80% of the army to participate in the war in the Taiwan Strait does not guarantee that it will be able to defeat the PLA, but may fall into a dilemma or even a difficult situation. On the one hand, the US military has to pay a huge and heavy price and losses in the face of China's powerful and complex military forces and means; On the other hand, the US military has to face constraints and challenges in its own political will, public support, diplomatic relations, etc., and has to bear huge and risky consequences and impacts.
Therefore, the deployment of 80% of the US military to participate in a war in the Taiwan Strait is not a wise and feasible choice, but a presumptuous and dangerous assumption. The United States should clearly understand the essence and essence of the Taiwan Strait issue, respect China's core interests and bottom line, abide by the provisions and commitments of the three Sino-US joint communiques, stop arms sales and interference in Taiwan, stop military provocations and threats in the Taiwan Strait, handle differences and issues with China through dialogue and consultation, and jointly safeguard peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. This is the right way to conform to the common interests and expectations of China and the United States and other countries in the world.