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Introduction:
Recent news shows that South Korea successfully tested a homegrown submarine-launched ballistic missile, making it the eighth country in the world to possess this technology, after the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India and North Korea. The acquisition of this technology will undoubtedly reshape the military landscape in East Asia, bringing a series of new challenges and threats to China and Japan.
02. How big is the threat to China from South Korea's submarine-launched ballistic missile technology?
South Korea's submarine-launched ballistic missile technology has gone through three stages: ground launch, underwater launch, and submarine launch. The most recent test was a submarine launch, using the USS Shimayama, which carries a Xuanwu-2B ballistic missile with a range of about 482 kilometers. Although South Korea is testing a longer-range Hyunmoo-4 ballistic missile, it is still in the tactical missile class and does not have a nuclear warhead. Therefore, the threat to China is limited, especially in the coverage of Chinese ballistic missiles.
01. Why should the United States let South Korea have submarine-launched ballistic missile technology?
The U.S. motive is to threaten China so that it will not easily attack U.S. military bases in South Korea. U.S. military forces in the Asia-Pacific region are threatened by China's "anti-entry/area denial" combat systems, particularly naval carrier battle groups and military bases in the Asia-Pacific region. In response to this threat, the United States has proposed the theory of "distributed operations," which seeks to disperse combat forces to reduce China's strike efficiency. By equipping South Korea with submarine-launched ballistic missile technology, the United States hopes to improve South Korea's long-range missile counterattack capabilities, so that China does not dare to easily attack U.S. military bases in South Korea.
03. How should China counter South Korea's submarine-launched ballistic missiles?
China's countermeasures include strengthening its anti-submarine system in South Korean waters and driving away the South Korean Navy's submarine-launched ballistic missile submarines to reduce their threat range. In addition, China needs to continue to strengthen its military capabilities to ensure that it has sufficient counterattack capabilities in the face of SLBM threats. South Korea should recognize that challenging China's military power could lead to serious consequences, especially within the coverage of Chinese ballistic missiles.
04. The geopolitical implications of SLBMs
The diffusion of SLBM technology raises concerns not only at the technical and military levels, but also has a profound impact on the geopolitical landscape. The spread of this technology could spark a regional arms race, heighten tensions and lead countries to invest more in defense and military research and development. In this context, the international community needs more diplomatic efforts to avoid an escalation of the arms race and geopolitical tensions.
05. Submarine-launched ballistic missile technology and nuclear proliferation
The spread of SLBM technology has also raised proliferation concerns. Although South Korea does not currently have a nuclear warhead, technological developments give it the potential to carry a nuclear warhead. This has raised international concerns about nuclear proliferation, especially as some States begin to consider the development of nuclear weapons, which has become more sensitive.
06. The response of the international community
In order to meet the challenges posed by the diffusion of SLBM technology, the international community needs to take a series of measures. First, the international community should encourage international cooperation to monitor and regulate the development of SLBM technology. This can be achieved through international agreements and export controls to ensure the peaceful use of technology.
Second, diplomacy is crucial. Countries should resolve geopolitical disputes through dialogue and negotiation to reduce the risk of tension and arms race. The international community needs to strengthen multilateral cooperation and jointly safeguard regional peace and stability.
Finally, the prevention of nuclear proliferation is a shared responsibility of the international community. International organizations such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) should continue to strengthen nuclear non-proliferation regimes to ensure that nuclear materials and technologies are not misused. All countries should actively abide by the International Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and avoid triggering a nuclear race.
In short, the spread of SLBM technology has had a profound impact on the international security landscape and geopolitics. The international community needs to take concerted action to regulate and manage the development of this technology, reduce potential threats, and maintain regional peace and stability. This requires active efforts by diplomacy, international agreements and multilateral cooperation to address new geopolitical challenges.
Revelation:
South Korea's recent successful test of a domestically produced submarine-launched ballistic missile has raised a series of questions about regional security and military balance. This event led to the following revelations:
Regional Military Balance: South Korea became the eighth country in the world to possess SLBM technology, which changed the military situation in East Asia. For China and Japan, this means an increased military threat, as South Korea's possession of the technology would allow it to play a more important role in the region.
U.S. intentions: The U.S. has obvious intentions to loosen restrictions on South Korea's missile technology. The United States hopes to reduce its own military pressure in the Asia-Pacific region by arming South Korea as the first wave of forces against China in the Asia-Pacific region.
Regional Military Power Distribution: U.S. military power in the Asia-Pacific region needs to be reconsidered, particularly in the face of the threat of China's "anti-entry/area denial" combat system. This prompted the U.S. military to come up with the doctrine of "distributed operations" to reduce the vulnerability of its own military bases and aircraft carrier battle groups in the Asia-Pacific region.
South Korea's Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles: South Korea's submarine-launched ballistic missile technology is in its early stages of development, has a relatively limited range, and does not have a nuclear warhead. As a result, its threat to China is limited, primarily with tactical missile counterattack capabilities.
Summary:
South Korea's recent successful test of a homegrown submarine-launched ballistic missile has raised concerns about regional military balance and U.S. policy. From this, we can draw the following important points:
First, South Korea's acquisition of SLBM technology represents a shift in the military balance in East Asia, posing a potential threat to China and Japan. This will require these countries to reassess their defense policies and military strategies.
Second, the United States loosened restrictions on South Korean missile technology out of its own strategic considerations. The United States hopes to ease its military burden in the Asia-Pacific region by arming South Korea and counter China's "anti-entry/area denial" capabilities.
South Korea's submarine-launched ballistic missile technology is still in its infancy, with limited range and no nuclear warheads. As a result, its threat to China is relatively small, primarily with tactical missile counterattack capabilities.
Finally, the incident reminded China to strengthen its anti-submarine system in waters such as the Sea of Japan, the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea to prevent the threat of SLBMs. In addition, China should continue to strengthen its military capabilities to ensure national security and regional stability.
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