Pentagon officials recently announced that they have accepted an invitation and plan to attend the upcoming Fragrant Hills Forum in Beijing. The news immediately sparked widespread speculation that it was interpreted as a possible important change in the military relationship between the two countries. However, the spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry gave a very implicit response, and suggested that you learn about this issue, which further complicates the attitude towards China.
In fact, so far, there is no clear answer as to whether China will invite U.S. officials to the Xiangshan Forum, or even whether to invite U.S. Defense Secretary Austin to visit China. The Chinese side has maintained extremely high levels of secrecy on this issue. The Chinese embassy in the United States also did not comment, which makes the whole incident full of mystery.
The Xiangshan Forum was seen as China's response to the Shangri-La Security Dialogue Summit in Singapore. This is an excellent opportunity for the United States, which has been hoping for a high-level security dialogue with China. Therefore, even if the Xiangshan Forum is still some time away, the US side has begun to actively promote the news that "Austin was invited to participate in the Beijing Xiangshan Forum".
However, the Chinese side appeared to be quite restrained and did not discuss the topic openly. The Foreign Ministry did not disclose any information, which also created suspense to a certain extent. The Chinese government does not seem to want to be swayed by the American propaganda machine and insists on doing things at its own pace.
Since former US House Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan last year, Sino-US relations have entered a state of tension, especially in the fields of diplomacy, security and climate. China has taken a series of measures to suspend high-level contacts with the United States, forcing the U.S. government to linger on some issues. At present, China and the United States have resumed high-level contacts in the fields of diplomacy, economy and trade, and climate, but the channels for dialogue in the security field remain frozen.
A Pentagon deputy defense secretary has complained that the U.S.-China security dialogue channel has been interrupted for more than a year, and the U.S. military has been actively seeking high-level security dialogue with China to establish conflict-proof security measures. The Fragrant Hills Forum provides an opportunity for senior Pentagon officials, including Austin, to hold defense secretary-level or other high-level security dialogues with China.
The Chinese government said the Xiangshan Forum would provide an equal opportunity for all parties to promote international security cooperation. So whether or not Austin eventually visits China, it does not seem that China will refuse to engage in a security dialogue with the United States. China's attitude has always been constructive and it is willing to sit down and talk about solving problems.
However, it should be emphasized that even if Austin visits China and holds a meeting with the Chinese defense minister, it does not mean that Sino-US relations will improve immediately. The key is whether the United States can show enough sincerity to thaw the channels of security dialogue between the two countries. The United States is currently facing many challenges, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, tensions in the Middle East, and North Korea. China has enough patience to wait for the United States to show its sincerity in resolving the issue.
In short, the future development of U.S.-China relations depends on the willingness of both sides to sit down and honestly talk about each other's concerns and interests. In this context, the Xiangshan Forum could be a significant moment, providing an opportunity for both sides to jointly explore ways to address a range of complex issues.