The first crisis of confidence erupted

With so many policies in place, the effect is not as expected, and the root cause is that there is a problem with trust.

First: A lot of policies have been introduced, but A-shares have not risen.

In the current stock market, there is a serious trust problem.

Someone made an analogy:

A licking dog, spending time and spending money to lick the girl for N years, the girl also takes this pursuit for granted, all kinds of fancy works, drawer agreements, not only do not give the licking dog a little return, but also unite others to lick the dog's money.

Now the licking dog suddenly awakens and does not lick; After eliminating the pseudo-foreign capital, the real rich and handsome foreign capital did not bird her, and began to retreat continuously.

At this time, the girl began to panic, you don't lick me is not very comfortable, what do you have an opinion about me, I change, I change it all.

However, looking at the girl's fake appearance and avoidance of the important modification, licking the dog strengthened the determination to withdraw and leave.

This is the current status quo of A-shares, after decades of accumulation, faith fell overnight, and leeks also chilled.

Second: there have been so many stimulus policies, and real estate has not yet risen.

In the past two years, it has been stimulating the property market, especially since September, more than 47 cities have introduced stimulus policies.

This wave of policy stimulus is the most intensive in history.

What is the effect? So so.

It is undeniable that the transaction volume of second-hand housing has indeed increased, with 50 cities increasing by 21% month-on-month, but the increase and duration are far less than expected, and sellers are far more redundant sellers, and the number of second-hand housing listings has surged.

As a result, the more the house is sold, the more it cannot be sold out, and the selling pressure is very serious.

At present, the top 10 companies, except for Zhonghai, the remaining housing companies have seen a year-on-year decline in monthly sales, down 4.4%-42.27%.

What about housing companies? It has still not yet begun to acquire land, and the land market is still the stage for central state-owned enterprises.

Although there is a lag in the data, it is unexpected that the policy effect is so short-lived.

Now everyone has come to their senses, do not buy a house unless necessary, let you coerce and tempt, everyone is not moved.

Also blowing house price increases? Then you blow it, anyway, I can't afford it, it doesn't matter to me whether it goes up or not.

And scare people with inflation? Then you scare. No one has ever gone bankrupt because of inflation, all because they want to fight inflation.

……

People no longer believe that house prices will always rise, and they do not believe that real estate is the best investment.

Third: With so many policies in place, the economy is still looking for the bottom.

Since the blockbuster meeting on July 24, interest rate cuts, RRR cuts, fiscal stimulus, etc., conventional monetary and fiscal policies have been continuously introduced; Other unconventional policies have also been rushed out, such as real estate stimulus and support for the development of high-standard documents for private enterprises.

After the introduction of this series of policies, what are the economic effects?

Economic data from August to September briefly stabilized, PMI, CPI, PPI, social finance, exports, investment, etc. all stopped falling and stabilized, and housing sales also stopped falling month-on-month.

The current economy is characterized by the fact that while some of the data is still in the deep negative territory, the vast majority of the data has stopped falling.

The current policy strength can be described as quite large, but everyone seems to have no confidence, which is a little different from before.

From a macro perspective, it can be characterized as a liquidity trap.

But, in essence, it is: the wool is too much, and the confidence is seriously lacking.

The three large-scale liquidity traps in history occurred in Japan, where the bubble burst in the 90s, the eurozone after the European debt crisis, and the United States after the subprime mortgage crisis.

1. Why did monetary policy fail at this time?

Because the essence of monetary policy is that the market regulates.

That is, to encourage and tempt market players, investment and consumption.

The problem is, everyone has no money, they have been drained, how can they invest or consume!

2. Why is fiscal policy effective at this time?

Because the essence of fiscal policy is that the government pushes it.

That is, the government forced fiscal expansion, built roads and bridges and built infrastructure.

This is actually equivalent to the government "sending money" to market entities.

If you have money, you will consume and invest!

3. When liquidity traps, is the policy of expanding the balance sheet of residents or enterprises useful?

Useless.

There is no money, and it is useless for you to stimulate it.

I don't consume because I don't want to? There's no money!

I don't invest because I don't want to make money? It's that the things produced can't be sold, and they lose money!

Now everyone is not paying much attention to the economy, brushing the news of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and the screen is full of "Destroy, tired."

This is the first time that there is a systemic trust problem in the economy.

Saving the problem of faith, which is more valuable than gold, will not help by shouting and not taking action.