For a long time, both economic experts and financial experts have been clamoring for inflation, saying that inflation is stronger than the tiger, and calling on ordinary people to invest in financial management and purchase assets to hedge. But in the past two years, the style of conversation has changed, saying that it is now deflationary and starting to enter a deflationary cycle. This really confuses us ordinary people and does not know what to do, how to distinguish the general trend?
1. Inflation, referred to as inflation, is an economic phenomenon closely related to the lives of our people, which closely affects the lives and living conditions of the broad masses of ordinary people.
Simply put, inflation is rising prices, and the technical term is the rise in the CPI index.
The price of agricultural products in the market is an important reference indicator. Everyone was surprised to find that the price of dishes rose sharply again, ordinary dishes are up to 10 yuan, beans are almost 15 yuan, chili peppers are 4 or 5 yuan, and many dishes are more than 20. Most of the people lament that they can't afford it, but unlike the basic stability of some propaganda, it has increased slightly.
Second, deflation, referred to as deflation. That is, prices have fallen, and the CPI index has fallen.
In the past two years, affected by the economic downturn and the superimposed impact of the epidemic, the people's expectations for the future are not good, they do not consume and invest, and now it is deflation. For example, in 2022, the social retail transaction volume will decrease by 1 trillion yuan year-on-year, and the savings deposits of residents will increase by 17 trillion yuan, an increase of 8 trillion yuan year-on-year.
Judging from these phenomena, it is really deflation. Moreover, many experts believe that the deflation period may be 3 or 5 years, and it may be as long as 10 years.
Third, how to judge the general trend.
This makes people wonder, some say that inflation is serious, some say price stability, and some say deflation. What do we ordinary people think?
1. Inflation is the main line and the general trend.
I believe that many middle-aged and elderly people have a deep understanding of how amazing the price rise is! In the eighties of the last century, 10,000 yuan households were rich. The prices of meat, milk, eggs, grain, cotton oil, and vegetables have all soared dozens of times.
2. Deflation is only a temporary phenomenon in a certain period of time and in some industries, and it is a temporary adjustment.
The issuance of money under the credit system will inevitably lead to the general trend of inflation, but the downturn of the economic cycle and the gray rhinoceros event will cause consumption and investment to decline in certain periods and cause deflation in certain industries, such as the production sector and the retail industry.
3, money supply growth, inflation is inevitable. At the same time, it is accompanied by deflation in certain industries and sectors.
In order to stimulate the economy, the mainland broad currency M2 growth is relatively fast, commonly known as "water release" more, long-term inflation is inevitable. However, the willingness of society to consume and invest has declined, the stimulating effect of currency issuance has become less and less obvious, and the multiplier effect has not appeared. There is what is known as "stagflation", that is, the phenomenon of deflation and inflation intertwined.
Therefore, preventing and hedging inflation is a long-term arrangement, and it is necessary to plan ahead. Only by correctly grasping the trend of economic development and the current situation can we adjust our mentality accordingly and make reasonable arrangements for consumption and investment.