Real estate positive? The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has clarified the 3 steps of urban village transformation, what signals have been released?

Real estate is gradually entering a new stage, from the perspective of the market, real estate will be transformed from the past seller's market to the seller's market, from the perspective of policy, real estate will be promoted from the past heavy market to market security.

The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has clarified that the transformation of urban villages in megacities is carried out in three steps

On October 12, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced that megacities are actively and steadily promoting the transformation of urban villages, which are divided into three categories: one is the implementation of demolition and new construction that meets the requirements, the other is to carry out regular rectification and upgrading, and the third is the combination of demolition and reorganization in between.

Here, everyone sees a word related to demolition, which is easy to associate with the vigorous demolition scene in the country that year, which was also the craziest era of real estate. Can the urban village renovation that is to be promoted today still bring real estate back to the past?

It stands to reason that from the current state of real estate, there is indeed such a demand, but we have learned a lesson, and it is almost impossible to go back to the old path.

Regarding the transformation of urban villages, the state has mentioned it many times this year.

At the meeting on April 28, the state proposed to actively and steadily promote the transformation of urban villages and the construction of "flat-emergency" public infrastructure in megacities. Later, on July 21, the state adopted the "Guiding Opinions on Actively and Steadily Promoting the Transformation of Urban Villages in Megacities". On July 24, the state reiterated that megacities should promote the transformation of urban villages.

Until now, the state has proposed to promote the transformation of urban villages in three steps, and it can be said that it is in such a very critical period, and many people urgently need such benefits to drive the market to be active. Therefore, the voice of shed reform 2.0 is always endless, and it is even said that this is the rhythm of house prices rising sharply. Because it is indeed psychologically needed, even desirable.

The background and significance of the transformation of urban villages

What exactly is an urban village? It is also known as a "village in the city", because most of them are messy layout, backward supporting facilities, lack of public services, so it is often labeled as "dirty", "messy" and "poor", which is incompatible with the prosperous urban appearance. But in such places, countless new citizens or young people of the city live.

First of all, the transformation of urban villages, which is a major project for people's livelihood, should in principle build a certain proportion of affordable housing. The urban villages of megacities make it affordable for many new citizens, young people and other groups, but the quality and safety risks are well known, so it is imperative to transform them to meet their quality of life pursuits. On the other hand, it is also an important way to boost the potential of domestic demand.

People's livelihood is not much to say, why is it said that it has a great stimulus to domestic demand?

Before talking about this, let's clarify what are the differences between this urban village transformation and the previous shed reform.

Although they all have the same goal, they are all aimed at improving people's livelihood and stimulating domestic demand. After all, this is all related to the upstream and downstream of real estate, which can drive effective investment and the development of industrial chain links such as building materials, decoration, and home appliances.

Is urban village renovation a shantytown monetization 2.0?

However, this time the transformation of urban villages mainly focuses on 21 super-large megacities, while the shantytown reform is mainly oriented to the whole country, basically covering a large number of third- and fourth-tier cities. In addition, in the past, the shantytown reform was mainly demolition and reconstruction, which can greatly promote real estate development and construction, while the transformation of urban villages will involve part of the demolition.

If it is relatively relatively mentioned not to demolish, the transformation of urban villages can be regarded as giving some live openings to demolition, not absolutely not demolishing, but the scope involved is much smaller. Therefore, the transformation of urban villages is not another large-scale construction of real estate, but also a refinement of solving the problem of unbalanced urban development, and another people's livelihood care for new citizens and young people to solve the housing problem.

On this basis, wouldn't it be better if it could bring more domestic demand?

Institution: The total potential investment scale of urban village renovation may exceed 5 trillion yuan

The positive is definitely a positive, but this is on the basis of ensuring that house prices will not rise sharply.

According to a research report released by Huatai Securities in mid-September, "We have refined the investment potential of the 21 megacities in this round, and the total potential investment scale of the entire cycle is expected to exceed 5 trillion yuan, and if the investment is pre-empted, the investment amount (starting construction) in 2023 or trillion yuan." ”

According to Zhongtai Securities, the transformation space of urban villages in key cities is vast, and it is expected that in the next 10 years, the annual construction cost may reach 663.8 billion yuan, which is expected to significantly stimulate project demand and drive downstream related consumption.

To put it bluntly, the transformation of urban villages is a more balanced approach that does not want to follow the old road but hopes to drive investment. The scale of demolition will be greatly reduced, the volume is not so large, and it is no longer mainly monetized resettlement, which will reduce the possibility of a sharp rise in housing prices.

Coupled with the positioning decision that the house is for living, not for speculation, it is impossible to engage in the monetization policy of the past in the future, because the lessons of side effects are still great. The sharp rise in house prices is groundless.

But at the same time, it is a sustainable, long-term marginal pulling effect on the economy, a catalyst to promote the comprehensive transformation of real estate, and can be called a new economic growth point. From another point of view, it is also a way to save the property market. It not only finds an outlet for the solution of the real estate problem, but also finds a new economic growth point for economic recovery, which can not only solve the people's livelihood, but also drive the downstream industry of real estate, drive consumption and economy, rather than rely on rising house prices to drive the economy.

Of course, the transformation of urban villages is not as simple as imagined, there are many problems involved, and a more comprehensive long-term consideration is required. National policies and designs are ready, it depends on the implementation.