Many people are beginning to lose their understanding of whether we are inflation or deflation. Many people are saying that we are now in deflation, but instead of feeling that prices are falling, the cost of living is rising. But now this situation cannot be inflation.
Deflation or inflation is a complex question. The international situation and the special development of financial markets have made it impossible to understand it in a single theory.
China's GDP is about 100 trillion yuan, that is, what is really produced is 100 trillion yuan. The scale of social financing in the first quarter of this year was 360 trillion yuan. The stock of social financing scale refers to the funds obtained by the real economy from the financial system at the end of a certain period, plus the principal in the real economy, we say that the economic activity in the market is 400 trillion yuan, which is equal to the entire economy We pulled four times the leverage, more than 300 trillion money appeared through mortgage and remortgage.
For example, if you deposit 1,000 yuan in the bank, in the case of the deposit margin rate is 10% (the actual 7.4%), the bank will put 100 yuan in the central bank as a margin, the remaining 900 yuan can be loaned out, lend to the second customer, then his account will have 900 yuan more, the bank needs to pay another 10% to the central bank as a margin, there is still 810 yuan left to lend to the third person, keep rolling like this, the actual deposit of 1000 yuan can become 9000, this is the process of leverage, To borrow money is to increase leverage.
Individuals leverage themselves by buying a house, with a down payment of 20%, and the remaining 80% of the value of the house is leveraged by mortgaged housing; Enterprises can also directly borrow land projects, buy land, mortgage land to build buildings, and mortgage real estate to borrow through the issuance of bonds; Financial institutions can package these bonds and project loans into wealth management products, and financial institutions can increase leverage in multiple layers; Local governments directly mortgage land to be developed, or issue local bonds.
Debt plus leverage to have interest, interest is needed to earn, in the rapid economic development of the positive cycle good to make money, debt is no problem, leverage higher and higher, borrow 1000, pay 100 yuan of interest, change hands to earn 200, repay 100, there is 100 left. When the global economy is down, if you can't earn 100 yuan of interest and lose money, you must find a way to pay off the debt, otherwise the money will be lost for one more day in hand, which is the process of deleveraging. Now many people are prepaying loans, which is unleveraging.
The global economic downturn, the shutdown of economic activities for several years during the epidemic, the impact of geopolitics, the disappearance of Chinese lip dividends, the deep transformation of real estate, the loss of confidence in the market by individuals, and the sale of real estate for various reasons for cash.
The new deposits of mainland residents have increased by nearly 8 trillion yuan over the previous year, how can everyone think that the market is not good? First of all, we must understand what is a deposit, deposit does not represent personal assets, nor does it represent income, deposit reflects the financial behavior of residents, whether the money is stored in the bank or to buy a house, buy a fund or do something else. The portion of deposits that surge beyond the expected normal range is considered overfulfilled and is called excess deposits. With income growth slowing sharply, we're turning more money from risky assets into safer deposits, rather than suddenly having a lot more money out of thin air.
Individuals, businesses, and localities are deleveraging, the economy of nearly 4 trillion is slowly shrinking, and M2's monthly data this year has increased by about 10% year-on-year. At present, the real economy of 100 trillion yuan is shrinking in the whole country. And people don't feel full deflation or full-blown inflation. Therefore, the current economy can no longer be explained by a single economic theory, and the impact of international and domestic events is no longer single.