Domestic refined oil prices were lowered for the first time in the second half of the year, and a full tank of oil cost 3.5 yuan less
Interface News Intern Reporter | Luo Rong
Refined oil prices were lowered for the seventh time this year.
On October 10, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that since 24 o'clock, domestic gasoline prices and diesel prices have been reduced by 85 yuan / ton and 80 yuan / ton respectively. Equivalent to the price increase, No. 92 gasoline, No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel were all reduced by 0.07 yuan.
After this price adjustment, the cost of fuel for private cars and logistics companies has decreased slightly. Taking a small private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50 liters, car owners will spend about 3.5 yuan less to fill up a tank of fuel; for the cost of large-scale logistics transportation with a full load of 50 tons, the average fuel cost is reduced by about 2.8 yuan per 100 kilometers.
According to Longzhong Information's calculation, after the price adjustment, the price of diesel fuel in most areas of the country is about 8 yuan - 8.2 yuan / liter, and the retail price of No. 92 gasoline is limited to 7.9 yuan - 8.1 yuan / liter.
This price adjustment is the twentieth price adjustment of refined oil products this year, and it is also the first time that oil prices have been lowered in the second half of the year. After this price adjustment, this year's refined oil price adjustment will show a pattern of "ten rises, seven falls, and three strandings".
Image source: Longzhong Information
"During the price adjustment cycle, international crude oil showed a volatile downward trend, and the wholesale price of the domestic refined oil market declined." Longzhong Information refined oil analyst Chu Yingbin said.
Chu Yingbin said that gasoline and diesel prices continued to fall during the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day holiday, while the deep decline in crude oil in the early stage after the holiday was still not digested, and the middle and lower reaches still held a wait-and-see attitude towards the market, entering the market more cautiously, and the price of gasoline and diesel continued to fall.
Meng Peng, an oil product analyst at Zhuochuang Information, pointed out that during the current pricing cycle, European and American crude oil prices once touched the high point of the year due to factors such as OPEC+ extended supply cuts and the decline in US crude oil inventories.
"However, due to the strength of the US dollar and supply uncertainty, coupled with the growth of inventories in the Cushing region of the United States, crude oil prices rushed higher and then fell rapidly, and crude oil prices fell to the median of $85/barrel during the National Day holiday." Meng Peng said.
Wang Yanting, an analyst at Jinlianchuang refined oil products, pointed out that although the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict at the end of the pricing cycle caused concerns about market supply and boosted oil prices to rise again, the overall trend of crude oil prices still fell during this week's pricing cycle.
As of the close in the early morning of October 10, Beijing time, WTI November crude oil futures were at $86.38 per barrel, up 4.34%; Brent crude oil futures for December were at $88.15 a barrel, up 4.22%.
According to Jinlianchuang's calculations, as of the tenth working day of October 10, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was 89.17 US dollars / barrel, with a change rate of -1.45%.
Image source: Longzhong Information
Institutions are divided on the direction of the next round of refined oil price adjustments.
Li Yan, an oil product analyst at Longzhong Information, pointed out to Interface News that based on the current international crude oil price level, the next round of refined oil price adjustment will show a downward trend. At present, international crude oil prices are showing a high volatility trend, the signs of the short game have been strengthened, and it is expected that the probability of the next round of refined oil price adjustment is relatively large.
Wang Yanting believes that in the short term, international crude oil prices still have upside, the rate of change may turn to positive development, and the probability of a new round of retail price increases is greater.
Meng Peng pointed out that the short-term geopolitical impact still exists, and the market is worried about the risk of oil supply disruption, which will give the market some support. However, on the other hand, there is still greater pressure on the global economic operation, which will inhibit the rise in crude oil prices, so the international oil price may show a strong shock operation in the next cycle.
"Affected by this, although at the beginning of the next cycle, the rate of change of crude oil may start with a negative value, and the retail price of refined oil is still expected to be lowered, but due to the uncertainty of crude oil trend, the direction of price adjustment is not clear." Meng Peng said.
According to the current refined oil price adjustment cycle, the next price adjustment window will open at 24 o'clock on October 24.