Text: Zhang Yu, Deputy Director and Chief Macro Analyst of Huachuang Securities Research Institute (License No.: S0360518090001)
Contact: Gao Tuo(13705969808)
Report summary
In February this year, China released the "Global Security Initiative Concept Paper" and proposed that "the current changes in the world, the times, and the history are unfolding in an unprecedented way... Once again, the world stands at a crossroads in history. "How to view the international order 2.0 in the game between China and the United States? From September 22 ~ September 28, we collected 100+ questions from 20+ head institutions in the roadshow to portray the current mainstream expectations of domestic institutions for international relations. 1. Institutional portrait: There are 21 large-scale insurance + large-scale TOP20 public offerings. In terms of types of institutions, there are 3 insurance companies and 18 public offerings. In terms of scale, mainly large-scale insurance and TOP20 public offerings, there are 9 companies with a non-monetary scale greater than 500 billion, and 7 companies with a non-monetary scale of 250 billion ~ 500 billion, accounting for 76%; In terms of sub-regions, the three places are evenly distributed, with 6 in Beijing, 7 in Shanghai and 8 in Guangzhou and Shenzhen. 2. Classification of issues: There are 102 institutional issues that attract the most attention in international geography, Sino-US relations, and China policy, divided into six categories, the number of which is from high to low: 1. 25 international geography. Pay attention to China's role and the situation in Russia and Ukraine (Note: non-Sino-US two-way and non-China-China one-way international order issues fall into this category); 2. 23 Sino-US relations. Short joys and long worries, focusing on the APEC summit; 3. There are 16 China policies. Focus on policy outlook, sanctions and suppression measures, and industrial chain restructuring; 4. 15 others. Most concerned about the withdrawal of foreign capital and the internationalization of the RMB; 5. 12 American politics. Pay attention to the US election and attitude towards China; 6. The U.S. economy is 11. Focus on the risk of contradiction, macro and micro are concerned. 3. What do different institutions ask? By region and size (non-currency), a 3X3 table can be drawn to show the focus areas of institutions of different regions and sizes: Shanghai institutions pay the most attention to Sino-US relations, and Beijing super large institutions and Guangzhou and Shenzhen institutions pay the most attention to international geography (see the text for specific issues). Risk warning: The problem collection is not comprehensive and the problem classification is not perfect.
Report Directory
The body of the report
I. Overall conclusions
(1) Institutional portrait: There are 21 large-scale insurance + large-scale TOP20 public offerings. In terms of types of institutions, 3 insurance companies and 18 public offerings;
In terms of scale, mainly large-scale insurance and TOP20 public offerings, there are 9 companies with a non-monetary scale greater than 500 billion, and 7 companies with a non-monetary scale of 250 billion ~ 500 billion, accounting for 76%;
In terms of sub-regions, the three places are evenly distributed, with 6 in Beijing, 7 in Shanghai and 8 in Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
(2) Distribution of problems: There are 102 institutional issues that attract the most attention in international geography, Sino-US relations, and China policy, divided into six categories, and the number is from high to low:
1. 25 international geographies. Pay attention to China's role and the situation in Russia and Ukraine (Note: non-Sino-US two-way and non-China-China one-way international order issues fall into this category);
2. 23 Sino-US relations. Short joys and long worries, focusing on the APEC summit;
3. There are 16 China policies. Focus on policy outlook, sanctions and suppression measures, and industrial chain restructuring;
4. 15 others. Most concerned about the withdrawal of foreign capital and the internationalization of the RMB;
5. 12 American politics. Pay attention to the US election and attitude towards China;
6. The U.S. economy is 11. Focus on the risk of contradiction, macro and micro are concerned.
(3) What do different institutions ask? By region and size (non-currency), a 3X3 table can be drawn to show the focus areas of institutions of different regions and sizes: Shanghai institutions pay the most attention to Sino-US relations, and Beijing super institutions and Guangzhou and Shenzhen institutions pay the most attention to international geography (see Chapter 2 for specific issues).
Second, specific issues
(1) China-US relations: short-term joys and long worries, focusing on a total of 23 questions at the APEC summit, of which: institutions are most concerned about the trend of Sino-US relations (13 questions), recognizing the short-term small spring of marginal improvement during the year, but still worried about long-term strong competition; In addition, institutions are more concerned about the timing of the meeting between the two heads of state (6 questions), especially whether the APEC summit can meet.
(2) China policy: focusing on policy outlook, sanctions and suppression measures, and industrial chain restructuring, a total of 16 questions, of which: institutions are most concerned about the outlook of China policy (6 questions), including the US assessment of the current political and economic state of China, the recent policy starting point, and the potential impact of the two variables of Trump's rise to power and the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict; In addition, institutions are more concerned about the US sanctions and suppression measures against China (5 questions), including whether Huawei is ready to sanction in the near future; Industrial chain restructuring (3 questions) is also involved in many institutions, concerned about its feasibility, risk points and policy objectives.
(3) International geography: Pay attention to China's role and the situation in Russia and Ukraine, a total of 25 questions, of which: institutions are most concerned about China's role (13 questions), including the follow-up development of China and "circle of friends" countries, the current situation and improvement direction of relations with Japan, South Korea, Australia, Europe and other Western worlds, China's international economic status and influence in the future, etc., and also involve the recent Belt and Road issues and the increase of the Middle East market; In addition, institutions are more concerned about Russia-Ukraine related issues (7 questions), including the impact of the subsequent variables of the conflict and the impact on China.
(4) U.S. economy: focusing on contradiction risk, macro and micro are concerned about a total of 11 questions, of which: institutions are most concerned about contradiction risk (4 questions), including the current main contradictions of the US economy and society, potential risk points next year, etc., especially pay attention to the lagging impact of the Fed's monetary policy. In addition, the institution has involved the US macroeconomy (3 questions), industrial policy (2 questions), micro feelings (2 questions), etc., specific issues cover US economic expectations, sources of consumption resilience, high-tech industries, manufacturing return and other policy prospects, Americans' actual experience of inflation and the economy.
(5) American politics: Pay attention to the US election, with a total of 12 questions about China, of which: the institution is most concerned about the US election (4 questions), including the position and demands of the two parties on Ukraine, the expectation of the election result, why Trump is still popular with the party, etc. In addition, institutions are more concerned about their attitude towards China (3 questions), including the change in Wall Street's view of China, the drive for pessimism about China's economy since Q2, and the assessment of the situation in the Taiwan Strait.
(6) Others: A total of 15 questions are most concerned about the withdrawal of foreign capital and the internationalization of RMB, of which: institutions are most concerned about foreign investment-related issues (6 questions), especially how do they see the recent flow of foreign capital, the views of overseas/European and American high-net-worth individuals on China's economy, and whether the sentiment of the domestic capital market affects the expansion of China's "circle of friends". In addition, institutions are more concerned about RMB internationalization & de-dollarization (5 questions), including the process of RMB internationalization, subsequent exchange rate arrangements, technical details related to currency swaps, the rationality of China's participation in petrocurrency, and the prospect of de-dollarization.
For details, please refer to the report "[Huachuang Macro] Three Places Focus on International Relations - Mainstream Expectations from 20+ Leading Institutions" released by Huachuang Securities Research Institute on October 8.
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