Song Ziqian: The scientific and technological revolution is facing a flashpoint The 14th Five-Year Plan is a new starting point

On April 30, Song Ziqian, director of the Institute of Policy and Science and Education of the China Tourism Research Institute and deputy head of the leading group of the postdoctoral workstation of the China Tourism Research Institute, delivered a speech entitled "Science and Technology Lead the High-quality Development of the Tourism Industry in the 14th Five-Year Plan" at the 2020 China Tourism Science Annual Conference and the Third National Tourism Management Postdoctoral Academic Forum. Song Ziqian said that the current scientific and technological revolution is facing a flashpoint, and it is necessary to take the "14th Five-Year Plan" as a new starting point to increase the understanding of science and technology and the impact on tourism, so as to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the tourism industry.

Song Ziqian shared his four views on technology leadership during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period:

Technology gives people an income and time guarantee to enhance tourism consumption

The most important factors affecting tourism consumption are mainly the disposable income and leisure time of urban and rural residents, and the development of science and technology has a great positive role in promoting these two aspects. Historically, every scientific and technological revolution has brought about an increase in productivity, which in turn has led to a great increase in social wealth. In particular, those countries and regions that take the lead in seizing the opportunities of the scientific and technological revolution will grow better.

Since the Eighteenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China, China's scientific and technological undertakings have made rapid progress, and many personnel have walked in the forefront of the world, and even at the world's leading level. Under the impetus of the national science and technology strategy, China will actively respond to a new round of scientific and technological revolution, promote scientific and technological innovation, and achieve sustained and rapid growth of the national economy and the improvement of people's income levels, so as to provide a more solid financial guarantee for tourism consumption. The scientific and technological revolution will also significantly increase people's leisure time, and a significant difference between tourism consumption and material consumption is that tourism consumption is actually the consumption of time. The development of science and technology will allow people to have more leisure time, which will constitute an important positive for tourism consumption.

An important breakthrough in the new round of scientific and technological revolution is the self-learning ability of machines, through the establishment of probability models plus a large amount of information input and massive computational training, machines can already have a high degree of intelligence. Not only can it free human beings from simple repetitive labor, but it can also replace a lot of seemingly complex labor. Just a few years ago, many people swore that due to the complexity of maintaining change, machines could not replace humans for a short time. The epidemic has also prompted people to pay more attention to the development of new technologies such as 5G and artificial intelligence, which will accelerate the guide belt of the era of large-scale intelligent production.

The scientific and technological revolution weakens the adverse impact of demographic restructuring on the development of tourism

Population structure has an important impact on tourism consumption and production, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's population development will undergo profound adjustment, while facing problems such as slowing down population growth and increasing aging. The favorable side of the joint structural adjustment to the development of tourism is that the demand for tourism combined with old-age care and health will increase, while the unfavorable side is the insufficient supply of labor, and the growth rate of tourism consumption may slow down due to the reduction of the number of people with long-term employment capacity. The technological revolution will make these effects more complex, but in general it is necessary to enhance the beneficial effects and weaken the adverse effects.

First of all, when the machine can replace part of the human labor, the problem of labor shortage will be alleviated somewhat. Second, the increase in income brought about by the technological revolution can partially offset the adverse effects of the decline in the number of people with stronger and more affordable employment. Third, scientific and technological progress will prolong people's life expectancy and people's working hours, thus making the problem of employment decline less prominent, while ensuring the demographic base of the tourism market. Finally, the development of science and technology will also improve the conditions for the elderly to travel abroad, improve the ability of the elderly to travel, and further increase the tourism consumption of the elderly.

Song Ziqian believes that machines can replace the labor of many manufacturing industries, which is recognized by everyone and is a fact that is happening now. Interpersonal communication and emotional appeal may be the reason for the long-term employment of tourism personnel services, but from the perspective of development trend, machine substitution of human labor, including labor such as alternative tourism personnel services, is a long-term trend.

The scientific and technological revolution has promoted the innovation of tourism products

The technological revolution can promote tourism product innovation in many ways. Tourism as we all know, is to go to a different place, and the development of science and technology can allow tourists to go to many places that could not be visited before, whether it is bridge paving or transportation, outdoor assembly, scientific and technological progress has played an important role in it. Now almost every piece of land on the geology has the footprints of tourists, and in the past, people could only do sightseeing on the ground or on the water, but now they can go to the sea and do everything. In the near future, people may be able to travel to outer space, the moon or the stars. Not long ago, China has announced that the plan for Mars exploration is Tianwen 1, which will arouse people's yearning for outer space.

The development of science and technology also brings tourists a different experience, mobile phone tour guides, mobile payment make people's travel more convenient, glass boardwalk, undersea tunnel so that people can see from a new perspective, light and shadow performance, robot services to provide tourists with unprecedented novelty.

In the midst of the pandemic, people are staying at home, which has even sparked a big discussion about virtual tourism. In fact, in my opinion, it does not matter whether virtual tourism is tourism or not, what is important is what virtual tourism means for the development of tourism? Virtual tourism certainly can not meet the definition of traditional tourism, it does not have material mobility and remoteness, and mobility and remoteness is the core connotation of the traditional tourism concept, but virtual tourism is definitely a leisure experience, and when the sensor technology is fully developed, virtual tourism will form a stronger pleasure and behavior in the future as spiritual tourism, thus forming a certain alternative to spiritual tourism.

Although this problem should not be very serious during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, it is necessary to do some forward-looking thinking, as far as the market is concerned, there is demand and supply. For researchers and managers, perhaps they should put aside the portal view and try to embrace and guide the development of virtual tourism.

The scientific and technological revolution has promoted the improvement of tourism quality

The first is the bottom line that is conducive to dragging up the quality of tourism products and services. Why? As mentioned earlier, the machine has a disadvantage, it is cold, not discounted in accordance with the instructions, no human touch, but this is actually an advantage, that is, the concept of machine error is very low, for such characteristics, we can transform the tourism product and service process, reduce the dependence on personnel services, we are not purely counting on the quality of service personnel themselves and professional ethics, but also based on a scientific and technological foundation, Practitioners can improve the quality of their products and services to a higher baseline.

The second is conducive to the personalization of tourism products or services. This personalization and the standardization of the machine just now, the coldness of the machine seems to be contradictory, but it is not. An important application of the new round of scientific and technological revolution is that through artificial intelligence, differentiated and personalized products can be provided at low cost and on a large scale.

"The future of customized tourism will not only be an alternative to tourism products, but also provide a full range of personalized products and services for all tourists. The technological revolution will make the era of mass-based personalized tourism coming, and the essence of technology is to make breakthroughs in the unknown, so the progress of science and technology is the most difficult to predict. Song Ziqian said. (Wu Ce Yiding)