If Biden wants a meeting between China and the United States, he must first make concessions
In just over a month, the 2023 APEC Leaders' Summit will be held in San Francisco, a city on the west coast of the United States. What is even more remarkable is that, if nothing else, the face-to-face meeting between Chinese leaders and US President Joe Biden will also take advantage of the former's east wind to be held in San Francisco.
Xiaolin noticed that according to a number of media reports, on the 26th, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said this intriguing sentence to the APEC San Francisco Summit:
APEC should not be a gladiatorial arena to provoke confrontation, and calls on the United States, the host of this summit, to show due openness, fairness, inclusiveness and responsibility to create better conditions for the smooth holding of the meeting.
What do you mean? According to the analysis of many experts, what Foreign Minister Wang Yi was referring to was precisely the refusal of Hong Kong Chief Executive Li Jiachao to participate in the APEC summit by the United States:
Hong Kong, China, is one of the 21 full members of APEC, but in July this year, the Biden administration banned Lee Jiachao from attending the summit in the United States, citing the so-called US sanctions in 2019.
This extremely unreasonable decision of the US side caused an uproar at home and abroad at that time, and became one of the main factors causing the continued tension in Sino-US relations this year.
Now that China and the United States have begun the process of easing their relations, inviting Chinese leaders to the United States is a landmark event that the United States believes that this process has truly succeeded. Therefore, experts believe that Foreign Minister Wang Yi certainly needs to hint to the US side that if this matter is not resolved, it will indeed affect the China-US summit, and the US side must first remove the obstacles it has created.
Biden's anti-China is already difficult to ride a tiger
So is the US willing to make such concessions?
To tell the truth, this inexplicable and disgusting action against Hong Kong is entirely for the sake of face, and from the perspective of practical interests, if Li Jiachao is allowed to go to the United States, the United States will not lose anything. And if you can use this condition in exchange for the Sino-US summit, it is completely "earned".
But the difficulties faced by the Biden administration are actually quite a few:
First, the Biden administration has not changed its overall anti-China strategy, and this time the détente between the two sides is only regarded by it as a "halftime", so it is particularly concerned about this kind of concession involving the "face issue", for fear of being "misunderstood" by the outside world, which is "surrendering" to China;
Second, Li Jiachao was sanctioned by the United States in 2019 precisely because of the problem of foreign extremist forces chaotic Hong Kong at that time. Therefore, from the perspective of the Biden administration, this matter directly involves the "political correctness" of the United States in the field of "democracy and human rights".
The reason why the Biden administration made the decision to ban Li Jiachao from visiting the United States in July was precisely because in June, four cross-party members of both houses of Congress took the lead in attacking the government on this issue.
In the critical period when the 2024 election is approaching, it is difficult for Shinolin to imagine that Biden, who is aiming for re-election, will be willing to directly offend "politically correct" people of both parties in the United States for such issues.
Therefore, Xiaolin believes that there are two possibilities for the final handling of this matter by the US side:
First, the Biden administration is willing to make concessions, but only if China makes more concessions at the summit meeting;
Second, or worse, the Biden administration will take the initiative to create other problems and then seek so-called concessions to China on these issues. In this regard, what Xiaolin is most worried about is the confrontation between the Philippines and China's Huangyan Dao, which has become increasingly troublesome in the past two days.
That is, in any case, the Biden administration is unwilling to suffer any losses. Therefore, Xiaolin feels that after Foreign Minister Wang Yi's kind words and persuasion, it is indeed necessary for us to come up with some more tough means to let Biden understand the consequences of obsession.
Biden was accused of "Tongzhong", and China was forced to get involved in the US partisanship
In fact, Xiaolin noticed that today's Biden has indeed offended many anti-China forces in the United States, and even made Biden himself face the public opinion accusation of "Tongzhong".
According to a report by the Russian Satellite News Agency on September 27, the speaker of the US House of Representatives and Republican McCarthy suddenly broke the news on social media on the same day, saying that at some point in the past, a remittance from China was remitted to US President Biden's home address in Delaware.
In addition, McCarthy also alleged that Biden sent two transfers totaling $260,000 to his youngest son, Hunter Biden, during his 2019 presidential campaign.
Shinohashi can guarantee that many people must be confused when they see McCarthy's two accusations: Biden sent some money to his son, what is wrong with this? And what is the connection between this and the so-called "Chinese remittance"?
This requires a brief introduction of the relevant background by Shinolin:
On the 12th of this month, McCarthy announced in Congress that House Republicans investigated that during President Biden's early tenure as vice president of the Obama administration, his son Hunter Biden had illegal overseas transactions, and Biden's entire family had a "culture of corruption." McCarthy himself has been even more threatening, having directed the House Oversight and Accountability Committee to lead a "formal impeachment investigation" against Biden.
So half a month later, McCarthy deliberately put these two vague accusations together, which is to hint at such a possibility to the American people:
The corruption of the Biden family gave China the opportunity to "buy" Biden, and Biden's son Hunter may have played some kind of "middleman" role in it.
Shinohashi really can't imagine what Biden's face will be like when he sees that he will be seriously accused of being a "Chinese traitor" by the bigwigs on the Republican side. What's more, anyone with some cognitive ability can see that there are many unexplained places in the two endless accusations themselves, such as why it was not Hunter who handed over money to the old Biden.
But not only "corrupt", but also for money to China as a "traitor", these two BUFFs, no matter how absurd the accusation itself, any American with a little backbone will have a spike in blood pressure, not to mention those Republican anti-China groups who already hate the Democratic Party and China.
It doesn't matter what the truth is, what the top Republican leadership, led by McCarthy, needs, is this brainless emotional reaction from the people.
Of course, from a certain point of view, Biden and the Democratic Party are also self-inflicted - the fact that the only Republican presidential election hopes that Trump will launch three lawsuits in one go is the most proud "masterpiece" of the Democratic Party at the moment. Now it is scornfully called "China's treachery" by the Republican Party, which can also be regarded as a courtesy exchange.
But from China's point of view, the signal sent by this incident is quite dangerous -
China has no intention of getting involved in U.S. internal affairs, but today's Republicans are deliberately pulling China into troubled waters of their own party rivalry with the Democratic Party.
So in this context, will the Republicans in a while directly point the finger at the easing of relations between China and the United States, or even the San Francisco meeting between the heads of state of China and the United States?
Shinolin feels that for such a high-probability event, we really have to be fully prepared.
Putting aside the China-EU trade war, Macron took the lead in opposing China
Biden was inexplicably accused of "Tongzhong", and French President Macron, who really used practical actions to "Tongzhong" in the first half of this year, is now taking the lead in opposing China.
As we all know, just a few days ago, European Commission President von der Leyen used a paper to investigate China's new energy vehicles, which not only completely angered China, but also made many EU countries stunned: What kind of medicine did von der Leyen take again?
But miraculously, it was not von der Leyen who took the wrong medicine this time, but French President Macron - an informed source recently revealed to Bloomberg that it was the French government led by Macron who made this faint move behind the EU.
As for the motive, one of the sources said this:
10 years ago, a large number of Chinese photovoltaic products were dumped into the European market, completely destroying the European photovoltaic industry; 10 years later, seeing that the European auto industry will be "poisoned" by China's new energy vehicles, the Macron government decided to stand up and "bravely" say no to China's new energy vehicles.
Another source said that Macron hopes that the EU will maintain an appropriate distance from China in this way, so as to become an important balancing force between the two "economic superpowers" of China and the United States and increase the EU's influence in the world.
Xiaolin feels that it is really numb enough to put gold on Macron's face for these reasons:
First, the photovoltaic war 10 years ago was originally provoked by Europe, and the result was that its own strength could not be done by China, which was purely a normal competition result. Where is the courage that Europeans do not strive to make themselves stronger, but make accusations against China?
Second, Chinese cars are indeed expanding rapidly in the European market, but as of 2022, China's new energy vehicles have only sold more than 300,000 units in the European market, compared with the total sales of 2.602 million new energy vehicles in Europe that year, is this market share enough to make Macron so much of an enemy?
Third, if the EU wants to be left and right between China and the United States, the first thing it must do well is to maintain good cooperative relations with both China and the United States, so that China and the United States can realize the importance of the EU to themselves. As a result, the Macron government took the initiative to deal with China, trying to make China "fearful" of the EU's "power" by "beating China"?
In fact, to put it bluntly, Shinolin did not understand what was going on in Macron's head:
Macron is a somewhat arrogant French politician in international politics today. Whether facing the United States or China, Macron has put himself in the position of a world power leader on a par with the United States and China, and the basic motivation for his actions is to maximize France's interests.
Understanding this basic logic, we will understand why, in the first half of this year, Macron will ignore the opposition of the entire Western world, personally run to China to show goodwill, and even take the lead in advocating the "European strategic autonomy theory" that breaks with the United States after returning home - in Macron's view, only a real world power like France can not even care about the face of the United States, and get close to whichever country it wants to be close to;
But after being taught by reality, Macron's two feet can only consciously move closer to the Western anti-China camp - of course, on the surface, Macron can boast of "maintaining strategic balance with China."
But can this anti-China operation of the Macron government really succeed? Xiaolin noticed that today's EU member states are basically very disgusted by this brainless challenge to China, and Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao also made a very clear statement when he held talks with visiting European Commission Executive Vice President and Trade Commissioner Dombrovskis on the 24th: China expressed "solemn concern and strong dissatisfaction" about this.
So Mr. Macron, can you come out from behind von der Leyen and personally respond positively to this statement?
Xiao Lin felt that if he didn't even have this bit of courage, he wouldn't do this stupid thing that he didn't know how many pounds he had.
If Canada gives evidence, India is willing to cooperate with the investigation
Shinolin noticed that compared with the overly arrogant French government, the Indian government is much more "aware of the times":
On September 26, local time, Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar Jaishankar said in New York at an event of the American think tank "Council on Foreign Relations" that if Canada can provide information on the assassination of Sikh figure Hadeep Nijjar, the Indian side will definitely take action and conduct relevant investigations.
The Indian government, which has been holding its neck and saying that Canada is vexatious, suddenly became willing to cooperate with relevant investigations?
Based on the information of all parties, Shinolin thinks like this:
First of all, as the incident became more and more serious, India's relations with Canada not only fell into a trough, but also became more and more dangerous with the entire West.
In terms of values and emotions, the Western world is of course naturally on the side of Canada, and the tougher India's posture, no matter what the truth is, it will only make India's image in the eyes of the West worse;
Second, the most delicate political aspect of this incident lies with the United States – Canada is America's closest natural ally, but at the same time, India is an indispensable and crucial part of America's anti-China strategy and one that the United States does not want to lose.
Now India also needs the power of the United States to enhance its status as a great power. That is, if India's reaction is too "rude" and does not save face for the United States, then it is very likely that the United States will first ensure Canada's interests and let India pick sesame seeds and lose watermelons.
In this way, if it can not overly challenge relations with the West, and make some appropriate concessions to the US government not too embarrassed, it is certainly a better and more realistic option for the Indian government;
Finally, Shinolin noticed that the Indian side is not blindly tolerant. For example, in the same speech, Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar Jaishankar also unceremoniously accused Canada of "condoning organized crime attacks on India." This accusation was mixed with India's commitment to cooperate with the investigation, and the final expression was actually as follows:
You Canadians' asses are not clean either, and this matter is almost all gone, everyone gives way, let this matter pass.
All in all, Shinohashi believes that the Indian government's willingness to ease the overly tense bilateral relations with partial concessions and fully take care of the overall situation of India's cooperation with the United States and the West is indeed commendable.
And such an Indian government should indeed arouse our greater attention and vigilance.