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In the aftermath of Prigozhin's crash, the situation became confusing and elusive. Wagner's assertion that this was a manifestation of "Russian treason" was alarming. This sudden incident has attracted widespread attention, and many people have begun to doubt Putin.
But things are far from simple, although Wagner's rebellion quickly subsided, the fact that Prigozhin launched a rebellion cannot be ignored. Putin resolutely decided to intervene and launched a series of important actions.
Things turned out to be unexpected. After Wagner's rebellion ended, Putin originally planned to let "white-haired" Troshev take over Wagner, but Prigozhin refused. This was revealed by Putin himself. In this incident, almost all Wagner executives except Troshev were killed in the downed plane, which makes it difficult not to doubt Putin's involvement.
After Wagner gradually took over, it paved the way for Troshev to take over the Wagner Group. But on the other hand, if Putin really wants to liquidate Prigozhin, he will not be in such a hurry. However, Prigozhin, after a conversation with Lukashenko, went to Belarus with part of Wagner's troops. Although we do not have exact information on how many Wagner soldiers went with them, judging by the military bases that Wagner has in Belarus, the size is definitely more than 5000 people.
As Prigozhin's forces assisted Belarus in joint exercises, some Wagner soldiers began to withdraw from military bases. Before Prigozhin's death in the crash, 101 tents at the military base were removed, meaning more than 2,000 Wagner soldiers left the site. While Wagner's forces were conducting joint exercises with the Belarusian army, Poland kept increasing its troops to the border, claiming that Wagner might invade Poland. At the same time, Ukraine has also stepped up its military deployment on the Belarusian side, fearing that Wagner's forces will return to the Ukrainian battlefield again.
The whereabouts of these thousands of Wagner soldiers have become a mystery, and they may be hatching a big move. Although an invasion of Poland is unlikely, Putin will definitely not order an attack on Poland, especially with tactical nuclear weapons, as long as Poland does not act. This mobilization of Wagner soldiers has the potential to change the pattern on the battlefield, if the Ukrainian counterattack fails, the Russian army has little motivation to attack, Wagner soldiers can once again become the key to changing the situation of this war.
However, Prigozhin's crash occurred at a critical time, disrupting some plans. Zelensky, although he said that Prigozhin's death has nothing to do with Ukraine, for Ukraine it is undoubtedly a good thing. However, in the eyes of Russia, which is dominated by special military operations, this is bad news. Putin usually does not make such hasty decisions. Even if he intends to liquidate Prigozhin, he will wait until the conflict is over. If he really wanted to help the "white-haired" Troshev Wagner, he would also have a wiser way. Troshev is Wagner's real leader in the conflict in Ukraine.
In short, Prigozhin's crash has triggered a series of variables in the Ukrainian crisis, which further complicates the whole situation.
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