The "big moves" in the property market in various places were introduced for a month, and the market response was flat

Whether it is a new house or a second-hand house, the market's response to the new policy has been relatively stable. Residents have changed from panic buying to rational buying

Jinyu Wangjing Yunshang Real Estate Sales Office; Photo by Ren Dehui

Wentong Wang Ren Dehui

Editor|Yu Le

Since August, in more than a month, more than 40 cities across the country have implemented the policy of "recognizing houses but not loans", and many cities have optimized or canceled the purchase restriction policy.

What is the effect of feedback from local markets? Taking advantage of the weekend, "Financial Eleven" visited many new home sales offices and found that the market's response to the policy was not as obvious as expected. There are still long queues for high-quality projects, and deserted projects are still doors.

In the second-hand housing market, the mentality of customers and owners has also become more rational. The number of listings has increased, but the trading volume and transaction price are basically stable. There is a small increase in high-quality projects, and the "old and broken" are still half-dead.

A number of experts and intermediaries said that this round of policy adjustments is mainly aimed at the second-hand housing market and improved demand groups. They believe that it is still necessary to wait for more second-hand houses to sell, the market to turn around, and the situation can improve.

the optimization and cancellation of purchase restriction policies in various cities; Cartography/Wang Wentong

New homes are less responsive to the market

On a weekend in late September, there was a lot of traffic in the sales office of "Jinyu Wangjing Yunshang" in Chaoyang District (see picture). Many couples brought their children to see the house together, and the children ran happily around the sand table.

Jinyu Wangjing Yunshang is located near Laiguangying North Road and Wangjing Business District in Chaoyang District, which opened in June 2023 and is expected to be delivered in November 2025. The property is an "improved new development", with three- and four-bedroom units as the selling point, mainly to meet the better living and living needs of families, with prices between 11 million and 14 million. At present, there are not many houses left in the first phase of the project, and the three-bedroom units are selling faster, leaving less than 10 units.

According to the sales staff, the property sold relatively quickly when it first opened in June, and there was no change after "recognizing the house without recognizing the loan" in September. "It can only be said that after the policy landed, some customers have increased their determination to make a move. But if you didn't plan to buy it, you still won't buy it. He said.

"Financial Eleven" came to the sales office of Beijing Investment Development Beixi District that he had visited. The finely decorated real estate is located in the East 5th Ring Free Trade CBD Zone, Chaoyang District, which opened in June 2023 and is expected to be delivered by the end of 2025. The second phase opened a total of four buildings, which have been sold almost as well.

At two o'clock in the afternoon, there was already a long line of house watchers outside the door. According to the sales staff, Beixi District has always been the hottest real estate in Chaoyang District, with the number of online signatures and transactions ranking among the best. According to the sales staff, although about 170 sets were sold in September, the situation is not bad, but the speed has not accelerated significantly compared with the past.

When asked about the price, the salesperson said that they have not increased the price since the opening, and there is still about two points of discount for the two-bedroom unit that has been transacted. "The attention of our project is relatively high, and we can't increase the price at will." He said.

In addition to first-tier cities, housing prices in popular second-tier cities have also attracted much attention. Taking Hangzhou as an example, since June this year, Hangzhou has successively introduced a number of favorable policies such as relaxing purchase restrictions and improving "recognizing houses but not loans". According to Clarion data, the transaction area of new houses in Hangzhou in the 38th week (9.11-9.17) was 136,000 square meters, an increase of 26.4% month-on-month.

The market popularity of the new housing market varies in different blocks, and the city center (such as West Lake District) is better than the surrounding areas (such as Yuhang District), but the transaction volume is not significantly affected by the new policy in September.

Xihu District Lianjia Agency said that after entering September, because policies such as lifting house subscriptions and not recognizing loans, relaxing purchase restrictions and other policies rarely benefited buyers of new projects in the city center, the transaction volume of new projects in the area did not change.

Compared with the new projects in the city center, the new market in the surrounding areas in September appeared to be less dynamic. Yuhang District intermediaries said that new projects in surrounding areas such as Huazhao Fu and Xingchuang Yuncheng Fu ushered in sales peaks in July and August, and declined in September.

The agent said that the main buyers of new projects in the surrounding areas are mainly young people, who have generally just come to Hangzhou, and the social security payment status and salary level are not enough to buy new houses in the urban area, and some buyers will choose to buy new projects in the surrounding areas with complete supporting facilities and lower prices than in the urban area.

But when the New Deal came out in September, their mentality changed. "Some buyers are waiting, thinking that if a more favorable policy is introduced, they can buy a house in the central city in one step." He said.

From the overall market data, the situation of new houses in the first and second tiers has rebounded to a certain extent. According to Clarion data, in the 38th week of 2023 (9.10-9.17), the transaction volume of cities of all energy levels rebounded month-on-month, and the index of first-tier cities rebounded better than that of second-tier cities.

Specifically, the first-line index increased by 15.71 points month-on-month to 67.98, and the four cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen all recovered. The second-tier transaction index increased by 3.48 points month-on-month to 45.88, Chengdu and Qingdao maintained a slight increase, Hangzhou, Chongqing and Nanjing recovered by more than 20%, while Wuhan and Ningbo fell month-on-month.

According to the monitoring of the China Index Research Institute, from September 18 to 20, the number of new housing transactions in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen continued to increase compared with the first three days of last week, but the absolute scale was still the lowest weekly sales area since 2023.

According to the Fangtianxia APP access data, the number of project visits in various places generally increased in the week of the introduction of the policy, but the online visits to many projects in many places declined in the 38th week (9.11-9.17), indicating that the overall customer purchase is still more rational.

In the short term, the transaction volume of new houses in core cities is expected to continue to rise, and the market scale of "Golden Nine Silver Ten" will increase. With the completion of the release of the backlog of housing demand in the early stage and the steady release of "sell one buy one" housing demand, the transaction volume of core cities may gradually stabilize. For the national market, residents' income expectations have not yet recovered, and the national real estate market as a whole is still facing certain pressure.

Second-hand houses have entered a period of stability

"These old and dilapidated second-hand houses, the excess price moisture has basically been squeezed dry. The situation of sub-new homes with a house age of about ten years is slightly better. A chain agency who is deeply engaged in Beijing's Balizhuang area told "Financial Eleven".

At about four o'clock in the afternoon of September 23, "Financial Eleven" followed the chain family intermediary to the Balizhuang Beili Community located near Shifoying in Chaoyang District. The houses here are generally more than 20 years old, the residents are mainly elderly, and after the renovation of the old community in 2021, the surface of the building has been repainted.

Balizhuang Beili Community; Photo by Ren Dehui

Lianjia intermediary said that the new policy did not have much impact on the transaction volume of second-hand houses in this community, and it still maintained about 10-15 sets per month, and the transaction price did not change much.

"Now the owners who want to sell the house here, interest rate and policy are not their first considerations, the main reason is that the house here cannot meet their living needs." He said.

The agent recalled that after the introduction of Beijing's new policy, second-hand houses did have a one-week "honeymoon period". "On the weekend when the policy was first introduced, a total of about 1,800 units were sold in Beijing in two days, and most of the transactions were new houses. As a result, the second week was back to square one. He said.

He also analyzed that this may be because of the large substitution between second-hand houses. "Recently, there are still some houses that are in a hurry to sell, but there is not much room for negotiation. Second-hand houses are like this, even if you miss today's house that you prefer, it will appear similar in the near future. ”

There are also big differences between second-hand houses in various areas of Hangzhou, the difference is that the region has a greater impact on the second-hand housing situation, and the price of sub-new houses in some surrounding urban areas is not as small as that in the central urban area. Second-hand housing agents in Xihu District said that although second-hand houses in the city center are mainly in old communities, the transaction volume still increased by about 20% in September.

He analyzed that first, the "house recognition but not loan" policy has lowered the threshold for buyers to buy houses, and some buyers can afford the price of houses in the city center, and second, the price reduction of old houses is greater than that of new houses, and buyers are more willing to sell.

In addition, the agent said that after the introduction of the policy in September, sellers were able to observe the increase in the number of house viewings in real time, and there were some fluctuations in mentality. "It still depends on whether you are in a hurry to sell, if you are in a hurry, you may reduce the price." But if you are not in a hurry, you will have less bargaining space in your heart. A house with 1.9 million yuan may have been sold for 1.7 million yuan, but now it may be 1.75 million. He said.

According to the data of the Shell Research Institute, the second-hand housing market in first- and second-tier cities shows a situation of "volume rising and price stability". The first-tier cities of Beijing and Shanghai performed better than Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and the second-tier cities of Wuhan, Suzhou, Hefei and Nanjing performed prominently.

Source: Shell Institute

According to the calculation of the China Index Research Institute, the absolute scale of second-hand housing is still at the lowest weekly level since February this year. According to the data of Fangtianxia APP visits, the number of project visits in various places generally increased on the weekend of the week when the policy was introduced, but the number of online visits to many projects declined after the second week.

On the whole, it takes a certain period to enter the market for the first home and house replacement demand brought about by the optimization of the "house recognition without loan" policy and other purchase restriction policies, so the market sentiment stabilized after the concentrated release after the introduction of the policy, indicating that buyers are still more rational overall.

Differentiation intensifies

In conversations with many agents and experts, we found that whether it is a first-hand house or a second-hand house, the differences between different cities, different districts and even different projects in the same area are obvious. They generally believe that the main reason for the differences between different cities is that the previous policy is loose and the pent-up demand for housing is different. Overall, the recovery of market sentiment in first-tier cities is generally higher than that in second-tier cities.

Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Index Research Institute, analyzed that before the implementation of the "housing but not loans" policy, most second-tier cities had implemented relatively loose policy restrictions, and the effect of the policy on the market was relatively limited.

Taking Wuhan as an example, before the landing of the 8.31 "Recognize Housing but Not Recognize Loans", Wuhan has lifted the purchase restrictions outside the second ring road, and the overall policy is in a relatively loose state, and the overall effect of this policy optimization on the market is limited. In addition, if the scale of new housing inventory is small, the second-hand housing market generally responds more quickly to policies.

The policies of first-tier cities are generally stricter, and the short-term release of demand for housing is also more. Among the first-tier cities, the overall performance of the new housing and second-hand housing markets in Beijing and Shanghai is still better than that of Guangzhou and Shenzhen, which is closely related to their respective house price expectations, urban fundamentals, and housing demand support.

Wu Jing, director of the Hang Lung Real Estate Research Center at Tsinghua University, also believes that the differentiation of the housing market will be more serious in the future. He said that in the past, when the market was relatively prosperous, it was easy to have panic buying of houses immediately by residents with slight policy changes, but this situation no longer occurs.

Now, residents are more rational when buying houses, the entire market is still slowly repairing the pent-up demand in the early stage, and the increase in house prices and transaction volume is moderate. Whether it is a new house or a second-hand house, the future is a better quality project will be more favored, and the old and dilapidated small project may not be cared for.

They also said that residents should pay more attention to long-term market changes. First, short-term data changes are affected by a variety of factors, fluctuate greatly, and do not have directionality; Second, the release of rational consumer demand itself takes more time. The difference generated by temporary policy stimulus will gradually dissipate as the fully suppressed demand gradually enters the market, and then the situation in different cities will be determined by spontaneous reasonable demand.

For the subsequent policy adjustment, many experts have given the same view - the supply side revitalizes idle land, supports enterprise financing, and optimizes the price limit policy; The demand side continues to implement and improve the real estate policies that have been issued in various places, and adjust some policies that are now unreasonable, such as the recognition standards for ordinary houses and non-ordinary houses. In addition, city-specific and district-specific policies can be further refined to project-specific and group-specific policies.

"After strengthening the segmentation, directionality and safety of policies, what we need more is to give the market more time and patience." Wu Jing said.