"Military Sub-plane" author: Big Ivan
Yesterday evening, just when our article was just released, the news pushed by the global network suddenly stunned Big Ivan.
Under the mediation of the Russian forces stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh, the army of the "Republic of Eltsakh" and the army of Azerbaijan decided to cease hostilities at 13:00 local time (17:00 Beijing time) on September 20, all Armenian troops in the Nagorno-Karabakh region will be disbanded, personnel can return to Armenian territory with their own side weapons, including heavy weapons, and the Azerbaijani army will guarantee respect for the safety of life and property of local Armenians. Relevant matters will be discussed and determined at a meeting of representatives of the Armenian population and the Azerbaijani army the next day. Then the Russian Embassy in China also published the news, and it was all over.
Why did the conflict end so quickly?
It seems that all this is going well, after all, we said before that with the strength of the Armenian army, in 2020 it may be able to draw twice with the Azerbaijani army, and at the node of 2023, the gap in strength between the two sides is already very large:
Indian truck guns purchased by Armenia
On the one hand, the Armenian army was busy with internal fighting and seeking help from external forces. It is clear that there are already lessons from the second Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2020, and it still does not put the whole arms war in the first place, and from time to time it is a whole tricky operation to show everyone, such as buying 155mm self-propelled guns and artillery reconnaissance radars from India.
Turkish drones purchased by Azerbaijan
On the other hand, through the second Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2020, the Azerbaijani army initially found a feeling, clarified that it will take precision weapons as the focus of equipment development, and take in-depth precision strike capability as its primary tactical capability to build. To this end, Azerbaijan has purchased a large number of TB-2 reconnaissance and combat integrated UAVs, and Israeli "Harpo" patrol missiles, "Lora" ballistic missiles, and even "Spike" image-guided anti-tank missiles have been used. The contrast between the two countries, the difference between cloud and mud.
At the same time, both the local situation and the external strategic situation, the Azerbaijani army overwhelmed Armenia, which we analyzed yesterday. Before the conflict broke out, the Azerbaijani army formed a three-sided encirclement of the Nagorno-Karabakh region and Stepanakert, and almost all the points of the Armenian army were under the fire control of the Azerbaijani army, especially the deadly Lachin corridor, which Azerbaijan could blockade with mortars, which was obviously impossible to fight.
In addition, it is necessary to talk about the external strategic situation, Armenia has said in recent years that the good point in foreign policy is in a period of transition, and the difficult point is to worship the mountain everywhere. Russia did not dare to lose it, and wanted to worship the docks of the United States, and also wanted to introduce the role of India, but as a result, no one would help him when the time came. In contrast, Azerbaijan is much more flexible, not only firmly hugging Turkey's thigh, but even politely to Russia, launching several rounds of public relations operations in Russia, successfully turning Russia into neutrality.
Therefore, neither from the level of political strategy, nor from the level of strategy, nor from the level of army building, troop tactics, the Armenian side has no chance. Considering that Nagorno-Karabakh was originally the land of the Azerbaijan Socialist Republic during the Soviet Union, it is actually acceptable internationally in a sense for the "Republic of Eltsakh" to withdraw from the Nagorno-Karabakh region as a whole and return the land to Azerbaijan. And the Russian peacekeepers mediated, so that the local Armenian army can withdraw with side weapons and heavy equipment, unified withdrawal to the territory of Armenia, willing to follow the local people to follow, those who are not willing to go Russia to guarantee and ensure the safety of the locals, which is actually very generous.
The mysterious operation of the Prime Minister of Armenia
Although the third Nagorno-Karabakh conflict ended in a day when Armenia surrendered, the mysterious operation of Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan continued. According to the latest news from the Armenian State News Agency on September 20, the Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire agreement brokered by Russia was actually denied by Pashinyan.
Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan
Pashinian made three points to the outside world: first, Armenia was not involved in the formulation of this ceasefire agreement; The second is that Armenia no longer has any military presence in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, Armenia and Azerbaijan are not in a state of conflict, so there is no need to conclude any ceasefire agreement; The third is that the reason why Russia wants to negotiate this ceasefire agreement with Azerbaijan is to drag Armenia into a war with Azerbaijan. Therefore, on the basis of these three points, Pashinyan said that all responsibility should be borne by Russia, and if it were not for your Russian peacekeepers and Azerbaijan to negotiate this ceasefire agreement, the Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh region would have lived in peace and contentment with three small barbecues a day ... Therefore, the Russians should take corresponding responsibility for the safety of the lives and property of Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
Seriously, if Big Ivan hadn't seen this report on the official website of the Armenian state news agency Armenpress, we wouldn't have believed that Armenia could have abstracted to this point. For example, Armenia is busy denying its relations with the "Republic of Ertsakh" in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and is busy denying that the Armenian army has any military presence on the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, so are the howitzers, anti-air surveillance radars and even the "Tor" air defense system destroyed by the Azerbaijani army yesterday all the equipment purchased from Russia by the Nagorno-Karabakh local armed forces? That's not all standard equipment of the Armenian army. Another example is this "Republic of Ertsakh" itself, the relationship between it and the Armenian government is basically lice on a bald head, just like the relationship between South Ossetia and Germany-left and Russia, is this something that you Armenia can easily deny by throwing two sentences out?
Footage of the strike released yesterday by the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan
What is more serious is that these two political statements of the Armenian government directly sold out the Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, including the Armenian armed forces. And this kind of thing has a ready-made example in history, Liu Bei crossed the river with his people after the Battle of Xiangyang, preferring to fight hard with Cao Cao's army on the slope of Changsaka, rather than give up the people who were willing to follow him south. This Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan does not say that it has reached the level of Liu Bei, but simply say that there is so much military equipment in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, in recent years, in order to defend against the offensive of the Azerbaijani army, a lot of fortifications have been built, and a lot of weapons and ammunition have been pre-installed. As for how much the Armenian ethnic group in the Nagorno-Karabakh region will be separated by this political statement and how much turmoil it may cause in the country, Big Ivan believes that this consequence is not overestimated.
A crowd of protesters at the entrance of the Armenian Prime Minister's Office
As for Pashinyan's claim that it is Russia's responsibility to make the Nagorno-Karabakh region what it is today - the Russian peacekeepers said from it that the ceasefire with the Azerbaijani and Nagorno-Karabakh armies was to drag Armenia into the water, and Russia was responsible for the safety of the lives and property of ethnic Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh region... It seems that Pashinyan is already messy and in a state of complete logical confusion: the Nagorno-Karabakh region is, in the final analysis, a bunch of broken things between you Armenia and Azerbaijan because of the collapse of the Soviet Union, and Russia is no matter how an outsider, it is not your duty to help you or not.
Last time, when the Azerbaijani army pressed the border, Russia was able to help separate the two sides, and this time Nagorno-Karabakh saw that the Russian army was about to kneel, and helped find a good way out for the Armenian army in Nagorno-Karabakh, which is already considered to be the end of benevolence. If Russia really turns a blind eye to the Nagorno-Karabakh army, and the Nagorno-Karabakh army is afraid that it will not be destroyed on the spot by Azerbaijan, and then shoot prisoners and massacre or something, will all be arranged for you, then will you Armenia have to turn around and blame the Russian peacekeepers for not taking action in time to let the Azerbaijani army ceasefire? You're stuck on both ends, aren't you? As for saying that Russia is trying to drag Armenia into the conflict with Azerbaijan and Russia is responsible for the people of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, this is all nonsense, and Big Ivan feels that there is no need to refute it.
Armenian logic
As for why the Pashinian government in Armenia is now acting so strangely, Big Ivan believes that there are still a few goals:
One is to take this opportunity to complete the cut with Russia, which is why Pashinyan seems to ignore even the basic logic in his external statement, and must throw the pot on Russia; The second is to take this opportunity to complete the cut with the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which may not only be worried that Azerbaijan may attack Armenia itself, but also that Ivan believes that it may also be that Armenia really wants to join NATO next.
After all, one of the main requirements for joining NATO is not to have territorial disputes with foreign countries, so in this sense, Nagorno-Karabakh has now become a negative asset for Armenia. It's just that it is clear that the Armenian cut is too blunt, and there is really no political level, so it has come up with the external statement that we all see in our eyes, and Pashinyan is like performance art, which is really the main abstraction.
Although Armenia almost abruptly wants to cut with Russia, wants to cut with Nagorno-Karabakh ... But on the one hand, will Azerbaijan really not go to conflict with Armenia because it unilaterally denies its relations with Nagorno-Karabakh and unilaterally denies its conflict with Azerbaijan? On the other hand, when both Turkey and Azerbaijan want to penetrate the south of Armenia, Armenia wants to join NATO, can it really join? This is not clear to Big Ivan, and I hope that the Armenian leadership will think clearly.