Armenia and Azerbaijan, fighting again. This is no joke, since 1991, when everyone divided the luggage list, the two neighbors have never got along well.
Why? Not yet for the turf!
When the Soviet Union was founded in 1922, the Transcaucasian Federation was one of the founding states. The Transcaucasian Federation is composed of three Transcaucasian countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia.
However, these three countries have three different subject nationalities. Moreover, the cultures, beliefs and customs of these three countries are completely different.
Georgia is Orthodox and Azerbaijan is Islamic, and Armenia is the oldest Christian state on earth. Therefore, the main ethnic groups of these three countries simply cannot pee in a pot.
So who should this so-called Transcaucasian federation listen to? The head of any nation who becomes the first brother of the Federation will be bombarded by the joint shelling of the other two ethnic groups. Obviously, this can't be done. Even in the Soviet family, this did not last long.
In 1936, the three friends divided their families once.
It was clear that the Transcaucasian Federation could not be maintained at all, and in order to demonstrate fairness and justice, Stalin thought of a way for them to separate and go it alone.
Everyone does their own thing, each chooses their own minister, then each other is naturally happy, after all, the respective authorities can get what they want. The point is that everyone is still a fraternal unit in the big Soviet family, and they will not tear their faces.
The question is, if every federation were to do this, wouldn't it be a mess?
Especially Russia, Russia has 194 nationalities, of course, the strongest of which is the Russian ethnic group, but there are many thorns in Russia, such as Tatar, Chechnya, Buryatia, Ingushetia, etc., all hope to be independent from Russia, in the Soviet family, have the qualifications to be equal to Russia.
If you want to do this, won't it be a mess? Stalin did not want to touch Russia's basic plate. Therefore, there must be a threshold for doing it separately. To this end, Stalin put forward 3 conditions:
- First, the country that came out alone must have a common border on the borders of the Soviet Union and with its neighbors.
- Second, the main ethnic groups in the country must exceed more than half of the total population of the country.
- Third, the total population of the country must exceed 1 million.
As soon as these three conditions came out, Chechnya, Tatar, Ingushetia and other countries were immediately choked, after all, they were either located in the heart of the Soviet Union or their population was not up to standard.
The three countries of Transcaucasia all meet these requirements. Obviously, these requirements are tailored to these three countries. After all, Stalin was a Georgian, and the villagers wanted to raise their status in the Soviet Union, and they did not really work separately, and Stalin was naturally willing to take care of it.
Of course, there are other beneficiaries besides these three countries. For example, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan also met the requirements, so Russia had to endure the pain and divide these two territories and let them go it alone.
The Russian Federation and Georgia are full of contradictions.
In fact, contradictions in this region have existed throughout history. At the beginning of the 19th century, the region was forcibly conquered by Tsarist Russia, who had previously either gone it alone or followed the Ottoman Turks and Iran. The locals can't integrate into the big family of Tsarist Russia at all, so they often make trouble.
In Soviet times, these 3 small partners were quite normal. But when it comes time to separate, Georgia is the most joyful. Their slogan was "Georgia is a Georgian country," and in 1989 Georgia was also a member state that spearheaded the intention to secede from the Soviet Union, and was later beaten.
In November 1990, Georgia issued a declaration of independence, and in April 1991, Georgia formally seceded from the Soviet Union and declared an independent state. Around the same time as Georgia declared independence, there were also the three Baltic states.
Therefore, when the remaining 11 republics of the Soviet Union signed the Almaty Declaration in Almaty, Central Asia, establishing the CIS, none of these four countries participated.
The Commonwealth of Independent States is known as a loose group similar to the Commonwealth.
- Originally 11 member states, Georgia applied to join the CIS in 1993, but after a fight with the Russian Federation in 2008, it retreated cursively.
- Ukraine announced its withdrawal from the CIS after the Crimean crisis in 2014.
- There is also Moldova, which withdrew from the CIS in August 2023, mainly to express its dissatisfaction with the Russian Federation, after all, Russia still occupies their German-left region.
It can be said that these three member states are all because the Russian Federation withdrew from the CIS.
There are even more contradictions between Georgia and the Russian Federation.
As early as after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Adjara region in Georgia had the idea of going it alone. Of course, this idea came with the support of the Russian Federation, after all, the Russian Federation still has troops stationed here. Although it is small, it is close to the Black Sea and is very well located.
Georgia has repeatedly negotiated with the Russian Federation, but has not been able to get these people to leave Adjara, which directly fuels the idea of the Autonomous Adjara Republic seeking independence.
This dragged on until 2004, when the Georgian authorities could not bear it anymore and directly sent troops to recover the Adjara region. The reason why Russia did not make a move was because Georgia was still in the CIS at that time, and the relations between the two sides were still okay, and it was difficult to tear the face.
But when faced with the problems of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Russia is not so good to talk about.
Both territories are Georgian land, but the local people have their own independent ethnic groups, especially the Ossetians of South Ossetia, and the Ossetians of North Ossetia in the Russian Federation. For this reason, South Ossetia, with the support of the Russian Federation, has always wanted to go it alone and then join the Russian Federation.
As for Abkhazia, it naturally also hopes to leave weak Georgia and join the Russian Federation. Despite Georgia's various methods, it was still unable to regain these two territories from the Russian Federation.
The Russian Federation helped Armenia against Azerbaijan.
Since Georgia is on the Black Sea, this is the most desired resource of the Russian Federation. And how did Azerbaijan offend this uncle?
In fact, relations between Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation have always been good. After all, during the Soviet period, Azerbaijan itself was relatively rich, did not need the help of the imperial court, and relations between rich relatives were always inadequate.
But there is a feud between Azerbaijan and Armenia!
In the Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan, quite a few Armenians live. There was no contradiction in this matter in the Soviet Union, and when the family was separated, trouble came, and Armenia insisted that this was their territory.
The two sides fought in 1992, as a result of which Azerbaijan suffered a crushing defeat due to the favor of Armenia by the Russian Federation, which temporarily lost control of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Since then, relations between Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation have deteriorated.
As for Armenia, it has been mixed with the Russian Federation for a long time, so even if it is relatively small, it can gain the upper hand on the battlefield. With the support of the Russian Federation, Armenia can naturally control Nagorno-Karabakh for a long time. Therefore, even after the ceasefire in 2020 and the return of the Nagorno-Karabakh region to Azerbaijan, there will still be a lot of instability here, and the locals have been seeking plans to secede from Azerbaijan.
No, it's all until 2023, and Armenia has openly expressed its support for the return of the Nagorno-Karabakh region to Azerbaijan, but the two sides still clashed.
Armenia's attitude determined Nagorno-Karabakh's way out.
In fact, the future of the Nagorno-Karabakh region is not in the hands of the Nagorno-Karabakh locals, but in the hands of Armenia. Why? Because as long as Armenia continues to mix with the Russian Federation, then the Russian Federation can naturally continue to pull the side and support Armenia's seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh.
But if Armenia's attitude in the Russian-Ukrainian war is not clear enough, leaving the Russian Federation in a state of isolation, then the next time Azerbaijan does something, the Russian Federation will have to wait and see, after all, Azerbaijan is also a member of the CIS, and everyone has a good relationship on the surface.
Therefore, Armenia's attitude towards the Russian Federation determines the future belonging of the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
So can Lao Mei intervene in this matter? Sorry, I really can't. Transcaucasia, after all, is the back garden of Russia, everyone is a member of the former Soviet Union, and internal problems are solved internally.
The hand of the old beauty cannot reach Transcaucasia, just as the hand of Russia cannot reach Cuba. For this reason, Lao Mei can only watch coldly in this matter. Unless Russia can't cover this place.
In Russia's mind, of course, it is hoped to restore the dominance of the Soviet era. 14 little brothers surround Russia, there is a feeling of the coming of all nations, not to mention how sour.
Therefore, if Lao Mei wants to invade the little brother around Russia, Russia will definitely not agree. The Russian-Ukrainian war is not at all the reason for NATO's eastward expansion, purely because the little brother around him was infected by the old United States, and Russia cannot agree.
To talk about eastward expansion, the three Baltic countries are close to Russia, and they have long been expanded eastward by NATO. After Finland joined NATO, NATO and Russia had many more borders. Why is Russia delaying? Because none of these places are the scope of Russia's little brother.
Although the three Baltic countries, Finland, etc., are the territory of Tsarist Russia in history, they are history after all. Russia's top brass are more focused on the present.
The CSO is an organization that is very likely to replicate the status of the Soviet Union. If the younger brother within this organization is invaded by NATO, led by the old United States, it will be the disaster of Russian hegemony.
In their view, these places, ostensibly independent states, are in fact still Russian homeland, and when the time comes, they must be reclaimed.