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Price increases, bans, short selling, Huawei snipers, Apple is in danger this time< titlesplit >
Written by Zhang Rui
Editor|Kang Xiao
Produced by: Shenwang Koman Studio
At 1 a.m. Beijing time on September 13, Apple held an autumn new product conference with the theme of "curiosity".
From the highlights of this conference, it mainly includes the world's first 3nm chip, USB Type-C charging interface, full serial port support for smart island, Pro Max periscope lens and double-click clock operation.
At the press conference, Apple CEO Tim Cook introduced the first MacBook and first Apple Vision Pro headset launched at WWDC2023 in June, and said:
Vision Pro is expected to begin shipping early next year
。 Cook then introduced the protagonists of this conference, Apple Watch Series 9 and iPhone 15.
In terms of chips, Apple Watch Series 9 is equipped with S9 chip; The iPhone 15 and iPhone 15Plus are powered by the same A16 Bionic chip as the iPhone 14pro.
The iPhone 15Pro series uses the A17 Pro chip with 3nm process.
In terms of charging interface, the iPhone 15 is equipped with a USB Type-C charging interface, which can charge Macs, iPads, iPhones and second-generation AirPods Pro.
Compared with last year's fall conference, Apple spent a lot of time showcasing new products and made efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and protect the environment.
Among them, the Watch Series 9 is Apple's first carbon neutral product, and its battery uses 100% recycled cobalt. Apple announced that the Apple Watch strap will no longer use any leather.
Speaking on stage, Cook promised that Apple would achieve carbon neutrality for all its operations by 2030.
In terms of price, the Apple Watch Series 9 starts at $399; The Apple Watch Ultra 2 starts at $799; The new Apple Watch is available now and will ship on September 22.
The iPhone 15 starts at $799 and the iPhone 15 Plus starts at $899; The iPhone 15 Pro starts at $999 and the iPhone 15 Pro Max starts at $1,199. Compared with the iPhone 14 series, only the starting price of the iPhone 15 Pro Max has increased by $100, while the price of other US versions of the iPhone 15 has not increased. The iPhone 15 variant machine was raised by the National Bank, and Apple suffered a short sale
According to Apple's official website, the Chinese version of the iPhone 15 starts at 5999 yuan, the iPhone 15 Plus starts at 6999 yuan, the iPhone 15 Pro starts at 7999 yuan, and the iPhone 15 Pro starts at 7999 yuan. iPhone 15 Pro Max 7999 yuan. The starting price is 9999 yuan. Reservations will be accepted on September 15 at 20:00 and September 22.
Compared with the National Bank version of the iPhone 14, except for the 128GB configuration, other versions of the iPhone 15 series have increased in price. Among them, the price of each version of the 256GB configuration increased by 100 yuan, the price of the 512GB configuration increased by 300 yuan, and the price of the IT configuration increased by 500 yuan.
Bank of China's price hike for the iPhone 15 version could limit domestic demand for the new version of the iPhone.
Apple's suppliers will also face performance pressure. Tianfeng Securities analyst Guo Mingchi previously predicted that the demand for the iPhone 15 series will be lower than this year's iPhone 14 series. He noted that while shipments will decline in the fourth quarter of 2022, most component shipment plans will not happen. Significant changes occurred in the fourth quarter of 2022. Unless demand after the launch of the iPhone 15 is better than market expectations, most suppliers say fundamentals will come under pressure in the second half of the year because demand for the iPhone 15 is lower than market expectations. The need for iPhone 14.
It should be noted that just a week before Apple released the iPhone 15, Dan Niles, founder and portfolio manager of hedge fund Satori Fund, said on Twitter: "Apple stock has been sold, and Apple is now their largest single short position." ”
A screenshot of a September 7 tweet from Dan Niles, founder and portfolio manager at hedge fund Satori Fund
As for the reasons for Apple's inventory reduction, Daniel cited four reasons: first, the ban in China (19% of revenue) has been extended to state-owned enterprises; Second, Huawei's recovery; Third, student loan repayment has resumed; Fourth, CQ3 fell year-on-year for the fourth consecutive year.
Affected by Huawei's recovery, lack of capital institutions and other factors, Apple's market value fell by nearly $200 billion in a week. At the close of the U.S. stock market on September 1, Apple's total market capitalization was $2,962.1 million; on September 7, Apple's total market value was $2.776 billion, with a loss of $186.1 billion in a week. During the conference, Apple's stock price fell all the way, falling as much as 2% intraday. At the close of U.S. stocks on September 12, Apple's share price was $176.3 per share. The stock fell 1.71% to a total market capitalization of $2,756.3 billion. Compared with the total market value of 2,804.2 million US dollars in the previous trading day, the market value lost 47.9 billion US dollars in a single day. Apple and Huawei are once again engaged in a battle for the throne
Throughout Apple's conference, the iPhone 15 Pro series did not have many surprises except for titanium alloy frame design, customizable controls and "STANDBY" screen.
On the communications front, Apple announced a partnership with the American Automobile Association (AAA) to expand SOS satellite services. U.S. users will receive 2 years of free emergency and roadside assistance when they purchase and activate new iPhone 14 and iPhone 15 models.
On August 29, Huawei Online announced that the Mate 60 Pro supports Tiantong satellite calling, becoming the first mass consumer smartphone that supports satellite calling.
In terms of price, the price of all configurations of Apple's iPhone 15 is higher than that of Huawei Mate 60 series. For example, the 256GB, 512GB and 1TB versions of the Pro series are 2500 yuan, 4000 yuan and 5000 yuan respectively, which is more expensive than the Mate 60.
Huawei Mate 60 series with 5G speed return, is bound to affect Apple's mobile phone sales. After all, Huawei's "strategic retreat" has been two years old, and Apple has cut most of Huawei's high-end mobile phone market share.
IDC data shows that in the first half of 2020, Huawei ranked first in China's smartphone market of more than $600 with a share of 44.1%, followed by Apple with a share of 44%. A year later, Apple captured more than 70% of the high-end mobile phone market in the fourth quarter of 2021.
The impact of Huawei's recovery on Apple is mainly reflected in domestic and overseas markets.
As for the domestic market, Greater China is one of Apple's top three best-selling regions. According to Apple's financial report data for the third quarter of fiscal year 2023 (equivalent to the second quarter of the 2023 calendar year), Apple's sales in China in this quarter were $15.758 billion, accounting for about 19.26%.
According to supply chain sources, orders for the Mate 60 Pro have increased to 15 to 17 million units. IDC data shows that Apple shipped about 10.05 million units to the Chinese smartphone market in the second quarter of 2023.
In the era of smartphone stock competition, Huawei's Mate 60 series will seize Apple's market share in China when the first product is released. Market research firm TrendForce previously predicted that poor market sentiment combined with Huawei's strong profits could affect Apple's overall iPhone sales this year. Therefore, the total annual iPhone production is expected to be around 22-225 million units, down about 5% year-on-year.
In addition to Huawei, Apple, which has not launched a folding screen phone, is also facing competition from OPPO, vivo, honor and other folding screen phones. Later this year, Honor (Magic V2) and OPPO (Find N3 Flip) released new flip phones. In addition, Honor will also release the first V Purse folding screen mobile phone on September 19.
Honor CEO Zhao Ming said that Honor folding screen mobile phones will break the boundaries of straight screen and folding screen flagship. The only real competitors are the iPhone 14 and the just-released iPhone 15.
The Indian market is unlikely to be Apple's lifeline
In addition to the domestic market, Apple will also face the "blockade" of mobile phone brands such as Huawei and Honor in overseas markets.
According to reports, Huawei announced a comprehensive plan for the global mobile phone market. In May this year, Huawei P60 Pro, Mate X3 folding screen and a series of organic full screen products were released in Germany, the United Arab Emirates, Malaysia and Mexico.
However, compared with the domestic market, Huawei will face many obstacles if it wants to return to the peak in overseas markets. Contrapunt analysts said: "In the European market, factors such as 5G and Google Mobile Services (GMS) are key to the smartphone market. Since the European market does not support 5G or GMS technology, Huawei smartphones will be launched in the first half of the year. "In 2023, sales in the European market will be very limited, less than 0.1%.
Huawei mobile phones cannot shake Apple's position in the European market in the short term, but the glory of returning to the European market also makes the European market promising. Zhao Ming has publicly expressed his hope that Glory can become the next "Huawei in the European market".
Greater China faces direct competition from Huawei. In the European market, the share of manufacturers such as Honor is expanding. Apple, which is caught between two sides, began to look for growth points in the Indian market.
In Apple's fiscal 2023 third-quarter earnings call, Apple CFO Luca Maestri singled out the Indian market, saying that "the iPhone set the highest revenue record ever in India."
According to the financial report, Apple did not disclose its specific sales in the Indian market, but aggregated sales in the Indian market to other regions such as the Asia-Pacific region. In the third quarter of fiscal 2023, Apple's sales in other regions such as the Asia-Pacific region were $5.63 billion. Compared with China's sales of $15.758 billion, the Indian market is currently struggling to cope with the decline in iPhone sales.
Moreover, the Indian mobile phone market has always been dominated by cost-effective mobile phones. IDC data shows that in the third quarter of 2022, the average selling price in the Indian market was $226. Getting price-sensitive phone users in India to buy iPhones that cost more than $700 is a challenge in itself.
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