First, this is not competition, this is war!
Now comparing the return of Huawei's 5G mobile phone to Shangganling in the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea, or Tashan in the Liaoshen Campaign, these analogies are valid from the status and importance of Huawei's 5G mobile phone in the Sino-US science and technology war and economic war. But if combined with the existing pattern of the Sino-US game, I am now more willing to compare the current offensive and defensive situation between China and the United States to the Shandong battlefield before the Menglianggu Campaign.
Because we have changed from a more passive defense to an overall active defense and a local active counterattack, waiting for our chip semiconductor to level with the most advanced foreign chip design and manufacturing level, we will turn into a comprehensive counteroffensive after achieving a comprehensive breakthrough in chip semiconductor equipment and materials.
Between active defense and full-scale counteroffensive, specific campaign succession is needed as a turning point. The Battle of Menglianggu played such a role. And we now have an opponent in the electronic information industry, from the perspective of strength, it is really very similar to the reorganized 74th Division, this opponent is the Apple mobile phone, the 74th Division is one of the five trump cards of the Kuomintang army, and the Apple mobile phone is one of the biggest trump cards in the US high-tech and manufacturing industry.
When Chiang Kai-shek was frustrated from an all-out offensive to a key attack, the main targets were northern Shaanxi and the Shandong Liberated Area, but now the focus of the US attack on us is financial war and science and technology war, and the target is mainly China's financial system and chip semiconductor industry. A blood related to the modern economy, a "food" related to the modern economy. Before the Battle of Menglianggu, we had to defend hard against the key attacks of the Kuomintang, and retreated from Lunan to Luzhong. The Menglianggu Campaign encircled and annihilated the enemy's elite reorganized 74th Division, which reversed the situation in the Shandong battlefield and East China in one fell swoop, and we changed from passive to active, and the Menglianggu Campaign became an important turning point for our army to change from strategic defense to strategic counteroffensive.
Because of the return of Huawei's 5G mobile phone, this year, Apple's new mobile phone launch conference is less than many calms in previous years. Because Apple knows best what Huawei's 5G back means? Starting from Huawei's Mate60 series of mobile phones, and after one or two generations of products, will it achieve the results of the Menglianggu campaign?
Before the US sanctions had to withdraw from the 5G mobile phone competition, Huawei's market share in domestic high-end brand mobile phones was 44.1%, higher than Apple's mobile phone. Before being sanctioned by the United States, Huawei's global shipments of mobile phones had surpassed Apple's. At that time, Huawei was running towards the goal of being the first in the world, and it was getting closer and closer to this goal.
Huawei was subjected to high-pressure sanctions by the United States, cutting off key supply chains and cutting off the "food channel" of Huawei mobile phones, and Huawei's global mobile phone shipments fell off a cliff: in 2019 and 2020, mobile phone shipments fell from 240 million units in 2019 and 2020 to 189 million units in 2020, plummeting to 30 million units in 2021 and 35 million units in 2022.
Apple became the biggest beneficiary. Apple's global mobile phone shipments increased by more than 20% from 198 million units in 2019 to 241 million units in 2022. Canalys' statistics show that from 2019 to 2022, globally, the market share of Samsung, OPPO and vivo in the world's top five (excluding Huawei) will remain unchanged overall, while Apple's market share will rise from 14% to 19%, becoming the biggest winner. Especially in the Chinese market of high-end brand mobile phones, there is no real opponent. From 2020 to 2022, Apple's market share of high-end mobile phones of $600 and above increased from less than 50% to 75%. According to IDC's report, in the first half of 2020, Huawei and Apple, high-end mobile phones of more than 4,000 yuan in China's domestic market, Huawei and Apple, respectively, rose to 74% in 2021 because of Huawei's withdrawal, and 75% in 2022.
In 2022, Apple achieved a staggering $74.2 billion in revenue in the Chinese market. By the second quarter of 2023, Apple's Chinese mobile phone shipments surpassed the United States for the first time, becoming the largest single market. Apple's stock has been particularly beautiful in recent years, and Apple's market value has grown from 2 trillion yuan in 2020 to $3 trillion.
The real Huawei falls, Apple eats.
Other mobile phone brands in China thought their opportunity had come, but it turned out that they were not Huawei, and they could not replace Huawei. Time has proved that in the field of mobile phones, the main force that we can resist such a high-end brand as Apple is Huawei.
This year, Apple's most pleasant time in the Chinese market is coming to an end. A few days before the new product launch, Apple ushered in another embarrassing moment: in just two days from September 6 to 7, the market value lost $190 billion. From the quiet years to the storm, the turning point is very abrupt, because Huawei 5G is back.
The founder of hedge fund Satori Fund publicly shorted Apple, saying that he would short Apple shares before and after Apple's iPhone 15 fall launch. The reason Nils shorted Apple is that Chinese technology company Huawei has made a breakthrough in its new Mate60 Pro smartphone technology, and the competition Apple will face will intensify.
The day after Huawei was not sold first, Apple issued a preview of the new product conference, which was the first time in Apple's history. This change occurs because the real opponent is back and the pressure is already felt.
Huawei's Mate60 series has announced models such as the Mate60, Mate60 Pro, and Mate60 Pro+. With the holding of Apple's new product conference in the autumn, Apple's i Phone15, iPhone 15 Pro, iPhone 15 ultra, iPhone 15 plus will begin to go on sale.
Huawei's Mate60 series of technological breakthroughs did catch Apple off guard, and before that, Apple felt that this year's market situation was still very good. Now, Apple's mobile phone will directly face the old rival's Mate60 series.
Apple's new mobile phone product launch conference is scheduled to be held on September 12, US time, everyone is waiting for this moment, this year's waiting is not mainly because of Apple mobile phones, but because Huawei on behalf of China and Apple mobile phones of the century war is about to be staged. How much market share Huawei mobile phones will take back, how much share Apple mobile phones will lose in the high-end mobile phone field, and how China's mobile phone market pattern will change, this is the focus of everyone's attention, after all, the result is ultimately based on market performance.
From the current situation, the constraint limiting Huawei's mobile phone shipments is not demand, but production capacity. Huawei launched the Mate60, Mate60 Pro+ and MateX5, which were also sold out in seconds.
Second, this is a big test of China's completely domestic independent mobile phone industry chain.
If Huawei's mobile phone production capacity can keep up with market demand, at least it shows that our completely domestic mobile phone industry chain has not only achieved a technological breakthrough, but also has enough firepower, and has the ability to fight in large armies and launch counteroffensives.
Without the leadership of a strong terminal brand, the supply chain is lifeless. The showdown between the two major mobile phone terminal brands of Huawei and Apple determines the future fate of the two sets of mobile phone industry chains led by China and the United States, affects China's first completion of industrial upgrading in the electronic information industry, and together with other industries, climbs to the peak of high-tech and high-end industries occupied by the United States and the West, or whether the United States will cooperate with allies to take the lead in completing the reconstruction of the global industrial chain and supply chain.
Because these two different outcomes will affect and determine whether China will further deindustrialize the United States and the West, or will the United States and the West reorganize the economic system to isolate China? This has a bearing on the different directions of the great changes and the different destinies of the East and the West.
The automobile manufacturing industry and the electronic information industry are the two largest industries in the manufacturing industry. The status of these two industries in the entire real industry is roughly equivalent to the strategic position of the Central Plains relative to China. Since ancient times, China has had the saying of "winning the Central Plains", if China wants to change from the third "world factory" to the world's third world manufacturing center and a new world science and technology center, it is necessary to win the two major industries of automobile manufacturing and electronic confidence, we not only want to be bigger in terms of quantity and scale, but also to achieve a leading position in the level of science and technology.
At present, in the automotive industry, we have used the track of new energy vehicles to realize the counterattack of the automobile manufacturing industry. There are two most convincing figures: First, the domestic market share of domestic self-owned brand vehicles, which reached 49.9% in 2022, and increased to 53.1% from January to June 2023. The second is the export of domestic self-owned brand cars, with China surpassing Germany in 2022 and becoming the second largest in the world in terms of export volume; By surpassing Japan from January to June 2023, it will become the world's largest exporter of automobiles in 2023.
Huge and complex electronic information industry, we have established the overall advantage of domestic brands in communication equipment, televisions, household appliances, etc., the output of mobile phones we are also the world's first, but in the high-end brand mobile phones that most reflect the technical level of the industrial chain and the most lucrative profits, there is still a giant standing in front of us. In 2022, our domestic self-branded mobile phones will have a total market share of 60%, but in the end, only 5% of the profit will be shared. After Huawei, domestic machines mainly occupy the low-end market with thin profits.
Mobile phones have the highest technical requirements for chip semiconductors, and other industries need chips with 14nm, 28nm and above processes to meet the needs, and the chip manufacturing process of high-end flagship brand mobile phones in 2020 is already 5nm. High-end brand mobile phones are the market demand locomotive of the commanding heights of the chip semiconductor industry.
From this, we can understand why the return of Huawei's 5G mobile phone makes the United States pay so much attention to anxiety, and why countries around the world are paying attention, because everyone knows what this mobile phone represents.
This year is the first head-to-head confrontation between China's completely independent mobile phone industry chain and the United States-led mobile phone industry chain. In the next two or three years, whose mobile phone terminal brand wins, whose mobile phone and even the entire electronic information industry chain will become the dominant party.
Chip semiconductors were not only the weakest link in our electronic information industry chain, but also affected the development of other industries. For example, we have three key links in new energy vehicles: batteries, motors, and electronic controls, of which the localization rate of batteries and motors has been relatively high, but in terms of electronic control, the localization process of electronic control is relatively lagging behind due to the backwardness of chips. According to the analysis report issued by Shao Wanjian, Zhang Hang, Zhang Zaiyu and others of Cathay Futures, the battery management system (BMS), motor controller (MCU), vehicle controller (VCU) of the domestic electronic control system, the most core voltage acquisition chip and other components on the BMS integrated circuit board are monopolized by foreign enterprises, such as Maxim, Texas Instruments, NXP, etc.; Most of the core power semiconductor IGBT market share in MCUs is also occupied by international giants.
It can be seen that chip semiconductors are also a key link that restricts our new energy vehicles. Theoretically, our vibrant new energy vehicles may also be hit by the chip supply chain technology war launched by the United States. As long as the commanding heights of chip semiconductor technology are occupied, these are no longer a problem, which can ensure that all China's high-tech industries will not be "robbed of the grain road" again, and the price of Huawei mobile phones cannot be repeated in the automotive industry and other industries.
Huawei Mate60, the future 70, 80 series and Apple's iPhone 15, and the future 16, 17 series of showdown, is so related to the overall situation of Chinese and Western manufacturing.
Third, this showdown is not only related to the overall situation of the manufacturing industry, but also related to the ongoing financial war process between China and the United States.
The United States is mainly shorting the RMB by raising interest rates, and has adopted the use of public opinion to sing short China's economy to occupy air supremacy, ground war, in the positive direction, widen the Sino-US currency interest rate spread, induce capital to flow from China to the United States, as the main attack of shorting the RMB exchange rate, and from two flanks, respectively, by detonating the foreign debt of China's real estate industry, and shorting China's stock market, so that China's financial system is set on fire.
America's own financial situation is not good. The United States is challenging economics, using the miraculous statistical technology of falling electricity consumption and taxes to achieve economic growth, just in order to achieve the "myth" of violent interest rate hikes, the US stock market continues to soar, the economy continues to grow, inflation has eased, and employment has continued to stabilize. The financial situation in the United States is now in full danger, and in the first half of the year, there have been successive thunderstorms of small and medium-sized banks. On August 10, the $23 billion 30-year Treasury bond bid rate of 4.189%, the highest level since July 2011, and it was the 19.6% allocation of direct purchasers, including the Federal Reserve and US federal government entities, that stopped the collapse in Treasury prices. If at this time, the US stock market has another problem, it will be the double pressure of the US financial system.
If Huawei's Mate60 can greatly affect the iPhone 15 sales performance of Apple's mobile phone, and the shares of Apple and Apple supply chain American companies take the lead in falling, then the false prosperity achieved by the US stock market relying on constituent stocks under the interest rate hike cannot be maintained, which will reduce the pressure on the yuan.
The recent military exercises in the Yellow Sea and provocations in the South China Sea are not aimed at fighting a decisive battle with China militarily, but mainly to create tension around China, drive funds further to the United States, and cooperate with the financial war of the United States.
In order to achieve victory in the financial war, the United States, from government officials to mainstream media, are singing about China's economy, and the old Biden has issued "time bomb" remarks to sing China's condemnation. Of course, those spiritual Americans in China have never lagged behind in cooperating with the actions of the United States. This shows how urgent they are to win the financial war against China.
The war of public opinion is the battle for air supremacy in modern three-dimensional warfare, and the war of public opinion is the key to the success of financial warfare. We have the world's largest and most complete industrial system, and we are also achieving greater advantages in shipbuilding and new energy, and catching up in automobiles and semiconductors, so that the industrial crown pearl is rapidly decreasing, such economic fundamentals will be worse than the United States? With the current economic fundamentals of the United States, it is said that it cannot win the financial war against China, but the lack of hard power must be made up by soft power. Public opinion wars can influence the judgment and expectations of capital holders and respond to the financial war in the United States. If the United States does not make full use of the hegemony of public opinion and gives full play to its role as an ally in China, it will not be able to win the financial war against China through internal and external collusion.
And we have analyzed that if the financial war launched by the United States against China by using the interest rate hike cycle cannot succeed, it will be the last opportunity for the United States to use the financial war to threaten China. It will take at least five years from the end of this wave of rate hikes to the start of the next wave. The big picture is basically fixed in these five years, and after five years, will the United States still have a chance? If this wave of interest rate hikes does not complete blood sucking, the United States will have a big problem because of severe anemia.
Recently, the world's media has paid more attention to Huawei's mobile phones than the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Because everyone understands people, we all know that the economic war, as the main battlefield between China and the United States, has to decide the result in advance because of the return of Huawei's 5G mobile phone beyond the expected speed.
China's electronic information industry chain led by Huawei mobile phones and the electronic information industry chain led by the United States led by Apple will be a trade-off relationship in the future. One wins, the other declines. In today's global market, it is actually difficult to accommodate the simultaneous existence of two parallel systems.
Historically, the United States has won the Cold War. Just as some successful businessmen are always prone to form a special memory of their successful experience and constantly reproduce it, the United States wants to build an economic system that excludes China through the reconstruction of the supply chain industrial chain, that is, it wants to be able to rule across the river from China when the situation is unfavorable. And we Chinese are not accustomed to having strength and not fighting across the Yangtze River. What we want is a sea of stars, we want to uphold justice and build a better world order, we must eradicate the economic foundation of the evil forces in the West, we should chase the remaining brave and poor, and we should not even leave them the opportunity for the United States to engage in a cold war again through decoupling.
Whether we can fight Apple as the reorganized 74th Division and whether we can play the effect of a Menglianggu battle, we will wait and see. Chinese consumers, through the various test disassembly of Huawei Mate60, have gained enough confidence in technical performance, but whether this confidence can be consolidated depends on the performance of the market.
Meng Lianggu's annihilation battle took only five days, and the head-on battle between Huawei and Apple could not have been decided in such a short time. I think that in two or three years, from the beginning of Mate60 to the end of Mate80, it should be fruitful. Of course, we hope that the Mate70 can end Apple's good times in the Chinese market. As the largest single market for Apple's mobile phone, the Chinese market has a huge impact on Apple's industry chain. In the future, Huawei will also go out of China, starting from the market that the United States cannot control, one by one, to end the market position of Apple's mobile phone.
There is a huge demand for mobile phones that are completely out of the control of the United States. Chinese netizens' meme that Huawei mobile phones are "the only mobile phones in the world that are not monitored by the CIA" has resonated in many countries around the world, but it can really be used as a selling point for Huawei mobile phones to go to the world again. It can be seen that in this field, it is also the world's bitter beauty for a long time. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel's mobile phone was monitored by U.S. intelligence agencies, and there is already a solution.
If the showdown between Huawei mobile phones and Apple mobile phones in three or four years can make a turning point effect of the Menglianggu Battle in China, we should be able to basically solve the result of the Sino-US science and technology war before the Taiwan issue is resolved, which is ideal (it doesn't matter if it is slow, anyway, time is on our side). Of course, winning the showdown against Apple cannot rely solely on Huawei's product competitiveness. Apple's market performance today is inseparable from the United States' suppression of Huawei, otherwise Huawei would have surpassed it long ago. Science and technology warfare is a war between national forces. Recently, I heard on the Internet that there are now departments and secret-related units that demand a ban on the use of Apple mobile phones in the workplace, and we should also pay attention to our own national security. What the United States accuses others of is often what they have done themselves. Although Snowden and Assange's exposure to the United States is only the tip of the iceberg, it is enough to make us wary and defensive.
The outcome of this round of financial war between China and the United States will be decided in about a year, because the US economy cannot hold out for long at the benchmark interest level of more than 5%. Three or four years should be basically enough for us to reduce our dependence on the dollar and settlement channels. At that time, the economic sanctions threatened by the United States against China will not have much power. The time is fully ripe for resolving the Taiwan issue.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict pressed the fast-forward button for the evolution of the world pattern, and everything will proceed with acceleration. In terms of the overall world order, the changes in three or four years may be greater than those in the previous two or three decades.
Apple makes a lot of money from China, but the profits left to the Chinese industrial chain are extremely limited. Moreover, Apple has planned to move the iPhone production line to India, and has cancelled the qualifications of dozens of domestic accessory manufacturers, and more than a dozen domestic accessory manufacturers have also moved to India to supply components for Apple. If Apple has to insist on doing so, this is the nature of participating in the US science and technology war against China.
Without the return of Huawei mobile phones, Apple's withdrawal (even if partial) will cause millions of people in the high-end mobile phone industry chain in China. But with Huawei mobile phones is different, Huawei mobile phones led by the high-end mobile phone industry chain will create millions or more, higher income jobs.
Therefore, those who smear and attack Huawei and are hostile to the return of Huawei mobile phones, if you do not want to stand on the opposite side of China, you still have to be objective. Huawei is not unable to criticize, but please do not deliberately smear. You can not buy a Huawei phone, but don't deliberately denigrate it.
On the first day after the launch of Huawei's 5G mobile phone, the domestic Internet hardly saw an attack on Huawei. Since the next day, there have been more and more voices on the Internet platform to smear Huawei mobile phones, and by now, the volume of this sound has been very large, and unified copywriting, tacit understanding, and concerted action, which is obviously a systematic and organized public opinion war. Huawei Mate60 and iPhone 15 series have not yet officially met, but the public opinion war has been bayonet.
Fourth, to reproduce the power of the people's war, the United States underestimated the great Chinese people, so it will be defeated.
China is fortunate that in an environment dominated by the nationwide "make is better than buy" mentality, Chinese companies like Huawei adhere to their ideals and adhere to independent research and development, setting an example for Chinese enterprises to achieve independent substitution, and enhancing confidence. Huawei is also like China's "big third line", has formulated a spare tire plan, but the degree of cruelty and unscrupulousness of the United States is not estimated enough, or it has paid a small price, but Huawei has done it perfectly enough and does not have to worry too much about the necessary growth costs. Of course, Huawei should also be glad that it is a Chinese company, China's huge market can provide enough living space for Huawei, will not be like Japanese companies and French companies, as long as they are targeted by the Americans, there is no chance to resist.
Huawei's fate has been linked to our national fortunes. Although Huawei has not carried out patriotic marketing and has never used the phrase "serving the country with industry" as an advertising slogan, at this moment, it is not an exaggeration to say that supporting Huawei is supporting China.
Here I would also like to quote a passage from our party's news network:
In the Battle of Menglianggu, the wheels rolled and stretchers were like forests, and the people of Yimeng formed a mighty army of former migrant workers, and the ratio of the number of civilian workers to the number of troops reached 3.7:1. There were moving scenes of "Yimeng Red Sister-in-law" using milk to save the wounded, "Yimeng mother" raising revolutionary offspring, Yimeng women bravely erecting a bridge of fire, "the last bowl of rice sent for military food, the last foot of cloth sent for military uniforms, the last old cotton jacket on a stretcher, and the last flesh and blood sent to the battlefield." Chen Yi once sighed with deep feelings: "Even if I lie in the coffin, I can't forget the people of Yimeng Mountain." ”
In the Haihai Campaign, such a front team appeared again, and on a larger scale. Marshal Chen Yi later concluded: "The victory in the Huaihai Campaign was pushed out by the masses of the people with a cart."
Chinese faced with the scientific and technological war related to the national fortunes, this scene of people's support for the front line has once again been reproduced. Huawei's Yu Chengdong recently expressed tearful thanks: Thank you for not abandoning Huawei. He mainly refers to the Mate50 series and P60 series are equipped with 4G versions of Snapdragon chips, which do not have strong technical competitiveness. At that time, Huawei's life and death were instantaneous, but the final sales did not disappoint Huawei, among which, Huawei Mate 50 sold 10 million units. He said that it is precisely because of the support of the people of the whole country that Huawei has the funds for research and development, and Kirin can return again.
Chinese supported Huawei to survive the coldest winter with actual performance.
From trade wars to technology wars, why did the United States go from one failure to another? In the final analysis, they underestimate the cohesion and indomitable will of the great Chinese people in the face of challenges. So when someone attacked Huawei's mobile phone for being too expensive, Huawei's users shot back, saying, "We'd rather be expensive than kneel." "What we care about is not Huawei's expensive, but Huawei's non-kneeling."
From here, we not only saw the heroism of the volunteer soldiers in the Shangganling and Iron Army Blockade Battles, but also saw the scenes of Meng Lianggu's former support for the common people, the winding front army in the Liberation War, and the scenes of the whole country supporting Korea in the War to Resist US Aggression and Aid Korea. Chinese people maintain this mental outlook, no one can defeat China.
Huawei and the Chinese enterprises behind the industrial chain, they have completed the counter-encirclement and suppression of the US science and technology war on the front line, we ordinary people, economically well-off, if you just want to change your mobile phone, you can consider choosing Huawei mobile phones to provide some ammunition for Huawei. Because mobile phones are not all of Huawei, Huawei competed with most of the ICT industry in China and the United States before the US sanctions, and it was said at that time that Huawei was one enemy eight in 2020: "The first is Huawei's router switch business directly benchmarked against Cisco in the United States, its second Huawei server business directly benchmarked against IBM, its third Huawei Hongmeng system directly benchmarked against Google, its fourth Huawei HiSilicon chip directly benchmarked against Qualcomm, its five Huawei Kunpeng processor + motherboard directly benchmarked against the United States Intel, and its six Huawei mobile phones, tablets, The computer business is directly benchmarked against Apple, its seven Huawei Gaussian database is directly benchmarked against the American Oracle, and its eight Huawei Euler server + Harmony system is directly benchmarked against the United States Microsoft" (quoted from C Jun Technology "One Enemy Eight! 》）。
There's also a 2019 table that is even more impressive:
After Huawei was sanctioned, its areas of advantage were further expanded, and now from hardware to software, it has benchmarked more American apex companies, almost competing with the small half of the high-tech industries involved in US hardware and software.
In addition to the original field is still maintaining, Huawei's GPU benchmarks against the American NVIDIA, Huawei 9610A vehicle chip Qualcomm 8155 computing power performance doubled. RF chips, logic control chips, power management chips, and WiFi chips also correspond to several hardware manufacturers in the United States. Huawei has also developed its own chip architecture and began to benchmark ARM. It also uses its own operating system, database, compiler and language to make its own management system MetaERP software; In terms of EDA, Huawei has cooperated with domestic enterprises to catch up with giants such as Synopsys in the United States, and has realized the localization of EDA design software for 14nm and above processes. Huawei has also developed its own programming language. Huawei will also expand the Hongmeng system to the PC side, and will fight with Microsoft's Windows system. In the future, as long as there is enough ammunition, what step can Huawei achieve, how many gaps in China's market, we can only use ellipses ... Anyway, China's technology is weak, making people feel that in the field of American car lights that cannot be seen for a while, there will always be Huawei's direct or indirect efforts.
If the economy is temporarily unable to support Huawei, they will cheer for Huawei and play a role in repelling the public opinion war against Huawei. The latter is no less important than the former. Without the cover of public opinion in the air, Huawei's technological advantages will be discounted in the market.
The public opinion war is the most difficult battle to fight in the future, even more difficult than the science and technology war, and behind the public opinion war is a comprehensive confrontation of economy, politics and culture. We would like to repeat the phrase again: The main opponent of the public opinion war is the allied forces of the United States in China, and the decisive battle will not take place between us and the United States, but between us and our allies in China. How powerful this American ally is, how destructive and subversive it is, you can let your imagination run wild.
Therefore, although we remain highly optimistic about the external geopolitical situation, on the whole, it is not at all time for us to be optimistic.