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Many southern peasant friends still vividly remember last year's severe drought. Will they face the same test again in 2023?
In my hometown, although the beginning of spring has passed for a long time and the spring equinox is approaching, rain is still scarce. It was sunny most of the time, and there hasn't been a single heavy rain so far in the New Year. Even if there is occasional rain, it is drizzle.
The Qingming Festival is coming, according to the agricultural proverb: "Before and after the Qingming Festival, plant melons and beans". At this time, the sowing season of crops is about to begin. Despite the lack of rainfall and the dry land, many farmers in the village had to carry buckets and carry water from their homes to water the land before they could sow seeds. It's cumbersome and hard, but there's no alternative. If you don't plant the seeds in time, you will miss the right season.
I asked some friends from other places online, and they also said that like my hometown, it has not rained heavily for a long time, and drizzles are rare. Although it is often said that "spring rain is as expensive as oil", spring rainfall is usually much less than summer, and spring droughts are usually rare in the south. Coupled with the impact of last year's severe drought, many villagers are worried about whether they will suffer from drought again this year.
An old farmer in the village said, "This year is ten oxen ploughing the fields", which means that the year is not optimistic. So what exactly does this phrase mean? Let's find out together.
2023 is the double spring leap February, and "ten oxen ploughing the field, one dragon curing water" has become the focus of attention of the elderly in the village. The elderly worry about whether this year will be as severe as last year's, perhaps more severe, because they have a traditional method of predicting weather and year, which has been passed down from ancient times. One of the most critical elements is the Spring Bull Diagram.
The Spring Ox Map is an ancient book used to predict the weather, rainfall, heaven and earth branches, five elements, and crop harvest of the year. This method emerged in the early Tang Dynasty, flourished in the Yuan, Ming, and Qing dynasties, and has a history of thousands of years. The main theme of the book is the "god of mang" of a cow and a morning glory, accompanied by verses, which together predict the weather and crop harvest of the year.
Below is a list of the yellow calendar of the year, with the dates of the 24 solar terms specially marked. In addition, it also includes daily taboos. Many families used to put up the Spring Cow Picture because it not only guided agricultural activities such as sowing, farming, and harvesting, but also kept the whole family safe. And in the "Spring Cow Map" in 2023, the information of "ten oxen ploughing the field, one dragon curing water" is displayed.
In the past, cattle farming was a farmer's right-hand man, and families with cattle could easily do so. Some families are unable to raise cattle, so they share cattle with other families in the village and rotate them. Usually, two cows plow the field together, which makes it more efficient and easier to work with the cattle. But this year, it was "ten cattle ploughing", which meant that the land became difficult to cultivate because there was very little rainfall, there was a large-scale drought, and the land became hard and difficult to cultivate.
Last year, the situation was relatively better, known as "five cattle ploughing the fields", but drought has already occurred in many places. The number of cattle ploughed has doubled this year, which is one reason why farmers are worried about the worsening drought this year. In addition, from the perspective of "several dragons to control water", the number of dragons can also predict the amount of rain, and 2023 is "one dragon to control water". As the old saying goes: "Dragons are more waterlogged, dragons are less dependent, five dragons and six dragons are smooth in the wind and rain", that is, the more dragons, the greater the possibility of drought. The reason is that everyone is no longer in charge, and in general, five or six dragons represent good weather and rain.
The older generation said that although "one dragon to control water" is not prone to drought, it does not have much precipitation, especially in spring, when rain is scarce. Taken together, this is consistent with the current situation. Last year, it was "eight dragons to control water", so the drought was serious.
So, is 2023 really prone to a mega-drought? Spring has arrived, and the latest weather forecasts have been released everywhere. The latest forecast of the Yunnan Provincial Water Resources Department said: "The drought and flood disaster in 2023 will be more serious than last year, and the situation is grim!" ”
In addition, the media reported that since the beginning of this year, the precipitation in the southwest region has generally been biased
Less, 2-50% less than the same period of the year, while southern Sichuan and most of Yunnan are more than 80% less. Coupled with the continued high temperature, the drought situation in Yunguichuan and other places is intensifying.
The National Climate Center has also previously released a forecast for the 2023 climate year, pointing out that this year's annual situation is generally biased, and extreme weather events are frequent and strong. They also predict that summer may be subject to persistent hot weather, and that the frequency of average rainfall concentrations in China will drop from the current 50-year event to once in 20 years. The frequency of extreme drought events will also be reduced from once in 50 years to once in 32 years.
Based on these forecasts, both ancient traditional experience and modern scientific instruments show that this year's year is not optimistic. It is hoped that farmers can prepare in advance, pay close attention to weather dynamics, and take timely preventive measures to reduce potential losses.
This year's drought situation cannot be ignored, in addition to crop damage, it may also bring a series of problems to water resources, ecological environment and life. Therefore, governments at all levels and relevant departments should also actively take measures to do a good job in fighting drought in advance to ensure that people's lives and production are not seriously affected.
In this challenging year, we are looking forward to a timely and rainy rainfall that will help us weather this drought. May nature be generous and bless us through this difficult time.
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