The ancient Greek historian Herodotus famously said, "The wheel turns the fate of mankind." "From wheels to cars to future vehicles, how has transportation shaped human civilization? British columnist Tom Standych's History on Wheels offers its own answer by reviewing a brief history of human movement. Now, after the explosion of shared mobility and years of predictions about self-driving cars, the social changes triggered by climate change create a unique opportunity to critically re-examine the relationship between humans and cars. By summarizing past experiences, humans can ask more accurate questions and make informed choices in the future. In this way, we can create a future that we want to see.
History on Wheels
By Tom Standych
Translated by Li Xiaoxia
CITIC Publishing Group
Horse-drawn carriages have been popular for thousands of yearsHumans invented the wheel and date back at least to 3500 BC. In the early days, carts driven by animals such as horses and cattle were mainly used in agriculture, and with the development of technology, horse-drawn carriages began to affect the lives of urban citizens. The city of Timgard, founded by the Roman Emperor Trajan in Algeria around 100 BC, planned vehicular traffic from the outset. One-third of the city's area is used for road construction, with an average road width of more than 4.5 meters. Wide roads are laid out in a regular grid, each large enough to accommodate two-lane traffic. Many streets are equipped with colonnaded walkways separating pedestrians from vehicles, ramps, stable areas and stone troughs that provide water for animals.
History on Wheels points out that many habits of the carriage era still influence us today, such as the traffic rules of driving on the right, which began in ancient Rome. When driving in both directions on city roads, the ancient Romans preferred to drive on the right side, a preference that may have been practical in nature. Most people are right-handed, and when driving a two- or four-wheeled carriage drawn by two or four horses, the right-handed person will prefer to sit on the left side of the carriage, or ride on the leftmost horse, so that he can draw all the horses with a wave of the whip he holds in his right hand. When sitting on the left, it is easier for the car to drive on the right, as the driver will be closer to the center of the road and can better see oncoming traffic and vehicles passing on the other side of the road.
The "London Steam Carriage" built by Richard Trevesik in 1803. (Image from "History on Wheels")
The popularity of horse-drawn carriages also influenced the design of urban architecture. Arches that facilitate carriage entry and exit, as well as inner courtyards for passengers to get on and off the carriage, were once standard features of large European homes. In order to facilitate the passage of horse-drawn carriages, the streets have become wider and the roads straighter. Emerging cities will even directly plan radial wide, straight avenues, which eventually converge in the city center.
However, with the massive increase in horse-drawn carriages in the 19th century, the drawbacks of this means of transportation became more and more obvious in densely populated cities: horse manure was piled up on the streets, and the stench could be imagined, leaving nowhere to escape. In the 90s of the 19th century, 300,000 horses were running on the streets of London alone; In New York, the number also exceeds 150,000. Each horse produces an average of 10 kg of horse manure per day, plus about 1 liter of horse urine. Cleaning thousands of tons of filth from stables and streets becomes an increasing burden in the daily operation of the city.
Even more troubling is that all of this can be harmful to public health. According to a 1894 report by The New York Times, statisticians at the New York City Board of Health found that "homes and schools within 50 feet of the stables were generally more likely to have higher rates of infectious diseases than those farther away." A statistic at the turn of the century confirmed that 20,000 New Yorkers die each year from "diseases that fly out of the dust," illustrating the health hazards of dependence on horses.
In October 1872, an outbreak of horse flu broke out in North America, and all the horses and mules fell ill for several weeks. This incident made people realize a harsh reality: human society has become too dependent on animal power, and the impact of losing animal power on daily life is simply unimaginable.
The "car peak" is coming?With the advent of new materials and propulsion power technology, new means of transportation are on the horizon, and human transportation technology has changed more in the past 100 years than in the past 5,000 years. Steam trains, which appeared in the first half of the 19th century, and bicycles in the second half of the 19th century redefined attitudes towards fast travel and individual freedom.
Since then, the emergence of mass-produced automobiles has completely changed the development process of human civilization. Through standardized assembly, using interchangeable parts, low-skilled workers produce a large number of specific products that are accurate enough, originally known as the "American manufacturing system." This method was first used in the manufacture of shoes, guns and clocks, and began to be applied to automobile production in the early 20th century. Large numbers of parts suppliers were drawn around the big manufacturers, and automobile manufacturing centers emerged, most notably Detroit.
The famous Ford Model T was produced in this mass production method. In total, the production process of the Ford Model T was broken down into 7882 separate tasks. Such a high degree of specialization, coupled with the orderly coordination of the assembly line, has brought production efficiency to a new level. The production time of a car dropped from 12 hours to 93 minutes, and a new car rolled off the assembly line every 3 minutes.
Thanks to this major innovation, the U.S. auto industry flourished and quickly grew into a "nation on wheels." In 1900, there were about 8,000 motor vehicles on the roads in Europe, and about the same number in the United States. In 1910, that number rose to 300,000 in Europe and 458,000 in the United States. By 1920, that number had become 1 million and 8 million, respectively. Within 20 years, the number of cars on the roads in the United States has increased 1,000-fold. Subsequently, with the development of new things such as drive-in restaurants, drive-in theaters, fast-food chains, and casual shopping malls, the automobile reshaped the physical and cultural landscape in the United States and many other countries.
1908 Pierce-Arrow's car advertisement. The company's advertising always places its cars in an upper-class environment (image from History on Wheels)
However, despite all the conveniences that cars can bring, their many problems cannot be ignored. The Horseless Times, founded in 1895, proudly declared that because car tires are rubber, "noise and the rumbling of cars on the streets of cities and towns will be reduced." But today's Broadway in New York, the noise is still so loud that it's hard to meditate. In central London today, cars travel at an average speed of 12.8 kilometers per hour, which is basically the same as the speed of horse-drawn carriages in the 90s of the 19th century. In addition, cars are idle on average 95% of the day, and parking takes up a lot of land. The pollution produced by automobiles not only poses a threat to human health through toxic gases and particles, but also harms the earth by altering the climate through the greenhouse effect. In short, although car pollution is harder to detect than horse manure, the harm is even greater.
Until recently, it seemed that people's enthusiasm for cars was really starting to fade. Some in the industry acknowledge that the world is at or has experienced a "peak of automobiles." At this point in time, car ownership and use plateau and begin to decline, and global car production may never exceed 2017 levels again.
What exactly makes people change? History on Wheels argues that most people now live in cities, that most of the miles driven by vehicles are in cities rather than in rural areas, and that the decline in driving is mainly due to the decline in urban drivers. As traffic congestion intensifies, cities introduce parking fee zones and pedestrian zones in the city center, resulting in fewer and more expensive parking spaces, and the cost and hassle of owning a car increases. For many urbanites, especially young people, cars are no longer seen as a necessity because smartphones allow them to shop or socialize online. The steady shift to e-commerce also means that fewer times you need to drive to shop. Car sharing and car rental services are readily available when you need a car, such as going out on weekends or helping friends move.
The Internet changes carsWhat will dominate urban transportation in the post-automotive era? Is it a bus, train, tram, taxi, ride-hailing, car club, bike-sharing, or scooter? History on Wheels argues that all of these answers are yes. Individually, due to the different coverage areas, ticketing systems, applications, membership requirements and billing systems, the above options may not be as convenient as private cars. But if you combine them into a single product, users can seek services and pay through the same application, and the problem will be solved. For any particular journey, users can choose between different prices and journey times, as well as multiple modes of transportation. They can make choices based on cost, convenience, or speed. In fact, what the market needs to do is connect multiple transportation networks together to form a single, seamless, and more powerful network. This process is the process of computer network formation, so that the "network connection network" forms the Internet. The same interconnection is taking place in the transportation sector, forming the so-called "Internet of Mobility".
The so-called "mobility as a service" in the industry is already in use in Helsinki, Finland. There, trains, trams, buses, bike rentals, taxis, e-scooters, and car rentals are all available through a single app. The app lets users plan routes, check prices in advance, and pay for M&A tickets. In addition to a pay-as-you-go access model, monthly plans are available, similar to mobile phone plans, offering bundled options for different users.
However, History on Wheels points out that just as internet browsing data is now a focal point, personal travel data is likely to be a focal point in the future. This question may seem a bit profound, but at the beginning of the automobile era, people were equally concerned about CO2 emissions, because CO2 emissions are invisible and intangible. Unlike then, today, those who create and use new mobility services will have the opportunity to address these issues before it's too late.
The internet will also facilitate the development of self-driving cars. In theory, self-driving cars could be safer than fallible human drivers. According to the World Health Organization, about 1.25 million people die worldwide each year and another 20 million to 50 million are injured, and traffic accidents are the leading cause of death for people aged 15 to 29. Self-driving cars have a superhuman-like 360-degree field of view, and they can predict dangers, especially those that human drivers can't detect in advance.
In addition to being safer, self-driving cars can also make it easier for people who can't drive. Solving the "last mile" problem by using self-driving car ride-hailing services to and from bus stops or train stations could make public transportation easier to get around in less densely populated areas or in less served "traffic deserts." History on Wheels believes that once the technology matures, city dwellers will flock to self-driving cars in large numbers. Calling a robotaxi when needed is cheaper than owning a car, significantly reducing car ownership. In this way, it will have a revolutionary impact on urban planning, social culture, etc.