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This weekend, the military conflict between the United States and Iran broke out in eastern Syria, coming and going, but the aftermath of this confrontation is much more than that. To date, neither side has reported any damage. The Biden administration claims that the US strike on Iran was an act of self-defense, but is that the whole story? We need to analyze this event in depth to better understand the complexities behind it and its impact on the situation in the region.
Indeed, the oilfield region of eastern Syria has been the focus of constant conflict between U.S. forces and Iranian-backed militias. A recent clash resulted in seven casualties, including U.S. military contractors and soldiers. In response to this incident, the US military took retaliatory action on the evening of the 23rd and carried out air strikes on Iranian militia bases and warehouses in eastern Syria. However, the results of this operation did not match the expectations of the US side.
Iran used to take a low-key approach, but this time it quickly and resolutely retaliated, carrying out massive bombing of U.S. bases and oil and gas fields in eastern Syria, using tactical missiles and suicide drones. The miscalculation of the US military led them to a sudden and dangerous situation. The lack of necessary protective facilities forced the United States to begin evacuating large numbers of personnel to the Kurdistan region in northern Iraq.
Although the United States has deployed hundreds of ground troops in Syria, they are significantly inferior in strength compared to Syrian government forces, Iranian militias and Russian troops in Syria. However, the U.S. ability to maintain a presence in Syria relies heavily on a network of bases and integrated strategic forces in the Middle East. As long as there is no large-scale military conflict, more than 800 U.S. troops will be able to continue their mission in the eastern Syrian oil fields, claiming to protect the Kurds while mastering Syria's oil and gas resources.
However, Iran's tough counterattack has made the U.S. military realize that the situation in the region has fundamentally changed. Iran's missile and drone strikes have forced the United States to face reality. At this time of crisis, the United States decided to take a large-scale withdrawal from Syria, evacuating a convoy of 148 vehicles out of Syria through an illegal border crossing between the Syrian province of Hassakeh and Kurdistan in northern Iraq. The convoy includes 80 tanker trucks, 60 enclosed container vehicles and 8 military armoured vehicles for protection missions. The evacuation was apparently due to the lack of necessary protective facilities at Syrian military bases.
However, the withdrawal of U.S. troops does not mean that they will find safe haven in Iraq. In northern Iraq, Iran's Shiite militias have far outpaced U.S. forces. Especially after the United States assassinated Iranian general Suleimani and the commander-in-chief of Iraq's Shiite militia, the relationship between Iraq's militia and the US military became very hostile, even hatred. All U.S. military bases in Iraq are regularly attacked by rockets, and the U.S. military cannot be prevented.
In addition, the gradual easing of diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia has created strategic opportunities for the entire Middle East region and a challenge to U.S. strategic dominance in the Middle East. Iran has dared to push back forcefully against U.S. provocations, in part because they are linked to the imminent dream of nuclear weapons. The U.S. military has expressed concern about Iran's nuclear program, with Mark Milley even saying that if Iran decides to produce a bomb, it will only take a few months. This situation has put the United States in an unprecedented predicament.
In general, the U.S. military confrontation with Iran has erupted in eastern Syria, but its impact extends far beyond the region. Iran's tough counterattack shows that the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East is undergoing fundamental changes, and the United States' strategic dominance in the Middle East is also facing great challenges. How to deal with the aftermath and resolve this crisis will be one of the greatest challenges facing the United States. In any case, this event will have a profound impact on stability and peace in the Middle East region.
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