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Prigo had only been in office for seven years, and Wagner's big gold mines in Africa had been built by high-ranking Russian officials.
Just 7 days after Prigot's first day in office, the Russian top brass immediately issued a charter on how to deal with Wagner. Inside the Kremlin, people revealed that all of Wagner's operations in Africa and the Middle East, including various tangible and intangible assets, including gold mines, were taken over by the Russian Defense Ministry.
[According to sources, the Russian Ministry of Defense will integrate all Wagner's operations in Africa]
That is, even if only the word "takeover" is used, a discerning person can say that the so-called "takeover" actually means incorporation, that is, the Russian Ministry of Defense began to merge into the Wagner Group.
This news has not been officially confirmed by Russia, but from recent indications, such as Putin's order to require all Confucians to take an oath on the flag, Wagner's inclusion of the Ministry of Defense should be a high probability event, and then after the transfer of command to the military, the remaining question should be how to hand over.
Judging by the current situation, the Kremlin is now incorporating Wagner into the Russian Ministry of Defense, which has both advantages and disadvantages. To promote stability in the Motherland, the Kremlin also paid a huge price.
Let's start with the benefits. First of all, the incorporation of the Ministry of Defense can completely eliminate the destabilizing factors of Wagner. At its peak, the Wagner Group had as many as 50,000 people. Even after the Wagner events, the number decreased to varying degrees, but they were still willing to follow Prigo to Belarus. Not many people go to Africa. A little less, adding up to at least tens of thousands. What's more, they have weapons in their hands, and after the baptism of war, their combat effectiveness is very strong.
[At its peak, the number of Wagner Group was as many as 50,000, and its combat effectiveness was very strong]
And how to settle down, or rather pacify these "battle-hardened" Wagnerians, is, of course, the Kremlin's top priority. After all, if these people become chaotic and do not obey the management of the Kremlin, a new round of riots cannot be ruled out. At the same time, it was previously reported that the Kremlin wanted Wagner's senior commander, Codenamed "Grey-haired" Troshev, to become Wagner's new leader so that Wagner would be firmly in his hands. Control was in their own hands, but now it seems that the Kremlin now does not even trust the "gray hair", and Wagner immediately took it for himself to avoid other accidents.
Second, pay attention to the unified deployment of troops, include Wagner under his command, so that the Russian army has more deployable resources. At this stage, the Russian army has many problems on the battlefield in Ukraine, and the lack of troops is one of them. Of course, the main problem caused by the insufficient strength of the Russian army, in addition to the fact that the Russian army is limited by legal problems and cannot send conscripts abroad to participate in the war, there is also one point, that is, combat losses.
[The front-line troops of the Russian army have already opened the curtain. It's hard to say whether they'll stick to the foundation they've laid. ]
After more than a year of attrition, both Russia and Ukraine have suffered casualties of varying degrees. In addition, the Russian army is currently on the defensive, which means that Russia must have enough troops to hold a front that is thousands of kilometers long. But as I said before, the strength of the Russian army at the front is already stretched, and it is difficult to say whether they will keep the land they have laid down. But now the situation is different. If the Russian Ministry of Defense consolidates Wagner, the elite forces will increase by tens of thousands. Although it is not enough to overcome the current war situation, it can at least greatly ease the defensive pressure of the Russian army.
As for Wagner's shortcomings, there are three points:
Firstly, Moscow lacks a pair of "white gloves". Wagner himself is a white glove, doing dirty work for the Russian government. Basically, what can be handed over to Wagner, it is inconvenient for the Russian government to come forward and do it.
For example, Wagner played an important role in the Crimean crisis in 2014 and the subsequent civil war in Donbass. Because on these occasions, when the regular Russian army is dispatched, it makes people feel that Russia is "invading" Ukraine, which is not very good, but it is different when Wagner comes forward. This is just a private mercenary organization. The Russian government has no direct relationship. Although they knew that the two were closely related, they were not sent directly by the Russian government. The outside world cannot say anything other than verbal condemnation.
Second, after integrating Wagner, Putin lacks the strength to balance the Russian army. As a spokesman for the Kremlin, Putin has been reluctant to expand the military's powers. He hopes to balance the influence of the Russian military by supporting mercenary organizations like Wagner. Especially in the Battle of Bacmut, he hoped to promote the military through Wagner, that is, if the regular Russian army did not fight well, then more resources should be allocated to the mercenaries under Wagner who fought well. The Russian military is creating corresponding pressure.
But now that Wager is in charge, it also means that the Russian army lacks an "opponent", or challenger, the former may continue to grow, even if it does not play well, it will not be criticized. Wagner. ”
[Russia's handling of Wagner could increase other countries' distrust of Russia]
Finally, Russia's treatment of Wagner can reinforce other countries' distrust of Russia – after all, they agreed to let it go, but now they repent, and there is no spirit of contract at all. Not so long ago, the Office of the Adviser to the President of Ukraine, Podolak, made it clear that Ukraine would not hold peace talks with Putin, because Prigoren's death proved that the Kremlin did not have a spirit of reconciliation. Although Russia and Ukraine have signed relevant ceasefire agreements, Russia will not abide by them. In retrospect, Russia now chose to involve Wagner because it believed that it would do more harm than good. Although the "white gloves" were lost, the potential destabilizing factors of the country were also lost. So Moscow's decision is correct, and whether Russia has really become more stable than Moscow hopes, we need to continue to observe.
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