Recently, carbon prices have been a bit high!
In recent months, the carbon price of the national carbon market has risen rapidly, and the listing price exceeded the 70 yuan/ton mark in mid-August, reaching a maximum of 73 yuan/ton, setting a new high since the market opened in 2021.
Enterprises actively perform the contract, and the volume and price rise
When the national carbon market opened in July 2021, the initial carbon price was 48 yuan/tonne, and the trading price remained relatively stable for more than a year, and it was not until the end of June 2023 that it successfully stood at 60 yuan/ton. However, in the last month and a half, carbon prices have risen significantly, breaking through 70 yuan / ton on August 10, and firmly standing in the following week, continuing the upward momentum.
As for the reasons for the recent sharp rise in carbon prices, Liu Hongming, director of carbon markets at the Beijing representative office of the Environmental Protection Association, explained that 2023 itself is a compliance year, and through long-term carbon trading simulation training and data from the 2021 compliance year, it can be seen that as the compliance period approaches, price increases and transaction volumes are trending.
In March, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the Implementation Plan for Setting and Distributing the Total National Carbon Emission Trading Quota in 2021 and 2022 (Power Generation Industry), clarifying the allocation of quotas for the second compliance period. On the whole, this allocation showed a tightening trend, and the quota allocation benchmark value of many units was lowered to varying degrees. In addition, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment also requires that all provincial-level ecological and environmental authorities ensure that 95% of key emitting enterprises in their administrative regions complete compliance by November 15, 2023, and all key emitting enterprises complete compliance by December 31. To some extent, the recent activity of the carbon trading market also reflects that enterprises are actively preparing to comply with the contract.
Highlight geological carbon sinks and contribute to the goal of "dual carbon"
Experts suggest that the role of geological carbon sinks should be further highlighted in the national carbon peaking and carbon neutrality "1+N" policy system. Incorporate the relevant content of geological carbon sink into the implementation plan for carbon peaking in the fields of energy, industry, urban and rural construction, and key industries such as petrochemical, electric power, oil and gas, as well as supporting policies such as science and technology, finance and finance, carbon sink capacity, statistical accounting, supervision and assessment.
At the same time, actively support the construction of a national engineering research center for geothermal clean energy exploration and development, undertake national geothermal resources investigation, monitoring, evaluation, zoning, exploration and mining experiments and other tasks, carry out in-depth monitoring and evaluation of geothermal resources development and utilization and geological environmental effects in key areas, accelerate the investigation and development demonstration of hot dry rock resources, strengthen key technology research in geothermal exploration and development, and provide scientific and technological support and clean energy guarantee for carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.
According to the investigation and research of China Geological Survey in recent years, deep saline aquifers, depleted oil and gas reservoirs and deep non-recoverable coal seams in sedimentary basins in continental land and adjacent sea areas are widely distributed, which can provide a huge space of trillions of tons for geological storage of carbon dioxide. Mafic - ultramafic rocks are widely distributed and diverse, with a mineral carbon sink potential of up to 13 trillion tons; The karst area of the country accounts for 1/3 of the country's land area, and the average karst carbon sink flux is 50 million tons of carbon per year, which is equivalent to 68% of China's forest carbon sink flux and 7.3 times the grassland carbon sink flux. In terms of carbon emission reduction, the annual recoverable amounts of shallow geothermal energy and national hydrothermal geothermal resources in 336 major cities in mainland China are equivalent to 700 million tons and 1.9 billion tons of standard coal, respectively, and if fully and rationally developed and utilized, carbon dioxide can be reduced by 1.75 billion tons and 4.7 billion tons per year.
Increase the proportion of renewable energy, geothermal energy development potential is huge
In the 70s of the 20th century, Li Siguang, the "father of Chinese geology", once gave high expectations for geothermal energy. After in-depth research, he believes that the underground is a large heat reservoir, which is a new source of natural energy for mankind. Just as important as humans discovered that coal and oil can burn.
The data shows that the annual recoverable resources of medium and deep geothermal energy in the mainland are equivalent to more than 1.8 billion tons of standard coal, and the geothermal energy resources of hot dry rock have great potential. By the end of 2020, China's geothermal direct utilization scale was 40.6 GW (1 GW = 1 million kW), accounting for 38% of the world, ranking first in the world for many consecutive years. China's geothermal energy heating and cooling area has accumulated 1.39 billion square meters, with an average annual growth rate of about 23% in the past five years.
The picture shows the network picture
By 2023, China's installed capacity of renewable energy will reach 1.3 billion kilowatts, surpassing coal power for the first time in history. However, at the 8th Geothermal High-quality Development (Hubei) Forum held in Wuhan on August 29, Professor Zheng Kedi, honorary director of the Expert Committee of the Geothermal Industry Working Committee, said in an interview that in this optimistic data, we should see some potential problems - renewable energy power generation/installed capacity, which can be concluded that its average power generation time is about 2,000 hours, and the efficiency is not high.
Compared with renewable energy such as photovoltaics and hydropower, geothermal energy also has its unique and stable advantages. According to statistics, the annual power generation time of geothermal power generation devices can reach more than 8,000 hours, which is about 6 times that of photovoltaics, 3.5 times that of wind power, and 2.5 times that of hydropower. Therefore, increasing the proportion of geothermal energy in power generation will be conducive to the stability of the power grid. And historically, China's installed capacity of geothermal energy was once higher than that of photovoltaic and wind power. Under the general trend of energy transition, the hope of geothermal energy has also been rekindled.
The government focuses on guidance, and enterprises actively practice
The "14th Five-Year Plan" for modern energy system released in 2022 further mentioned that geothermal energy heating and cooling should be actively promoted, and geothermal energy power generation demonstrations should be carried out in an orderly manner in areas with high-temperature geothermal resource conditions. According to incomplete statistics, Hebei, Henan, Shanxi, Shandong, Sichuan, Guizhou and other regions in the mainland have made 14th Five-Year plans for the development of geothermal energy.
In addition to government guidance, Sinopec, PetroChina and other enterprises have also explored and practiced the development of deep, medium and deep geothermal resources.
On August 27, PetroChina's first medium and deep U-shaped well geothermal project, the geothermal development test project of Chaoge R3-U1 well group in Daqing Oilfield, had good trial operation results, marking that the "heat extraction without water extraction technology" of U-shaped wells reached the expected goal. According to reports, the geothermal development test project of the R3-U1 well group will be officially put into operation on October 15, heating for half a year, and at the same time taking accurate data, re-improving the geological model, and implementing the law of capacity change, providing reliable technical support for the promotion and demonstration of the second phase of the test and large-scale application.
Qiongbei deep geothermal (hot dry rock) Fu deep heat 1 scientific exploration well
On August 31, the supporting project of the national key research and development plan "Research on Key Technologies for Deep Geothermal Resources Exploration and Evaluation" undertaken by China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation Co., Ltd. - Qiongbei Deep Geothermal (Hot Dry Rock) Fu Deep Heat 1 Scientific Exploration Well was drilled in Haikou. The drilling design of this well is 5,000 meters deep, which is the deepest geothermal exploration well in China, and will lead China's deep geothermal resources exploration and development technology to the forefront of the world. According to preliminary exploration and evaluation, the current hot dry rock resources in Qiongbei area are equivalent to about 38.6 billion tons of standard coal, and the available amount is about 2 billion tons of standard coal based on resource utilization rate of 5% to 8%, and the total power generation is expected to reach 6 trillion to 7 trillion kWh.
The rise in carbon prices is just an opportunity, under the opportunity, geothermal energy has a new imagination, of course, even today, the challenges of geothermal energy development are still huge, so how to make good use of geothermal energy, exploration continues, but it is undeniable that its potential is huge, the prospects are bright.