The Pacific Ocean is so hot that it's all getting dark. Is there a major disaster near the United States? Expert: El Niño may be stronger
According to an analysis by scientists at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Research (GISS), July 2023 will be the hottest month on record for global temperatures. Gavin Schmidt, director of the Institute of Directors, said: "This July's temperatures were significantly higher than any previous July and any month recorded since 1880. ”
1. The Pacific Ocean is so hot that it turns black
In fact, this continues a long-term trend of dramatic warming over the past four decades. Last July, the weather was particularly hot in parts of South America, North Africa, North America and the Antarctic Peninsula, with temperatures around 4 degrees. Extreme temperature anomalies have triggered devastating forest fires and scorching heat waves in the Northern Hemisphere.
The temperature anomalous images released by NASA show that in addition to the particularly hot regions of South America, North Africa, North America and Antarctica, there are also regions of abnormal high temperatures in the tropical Pacific. This is the start of May 2023. Evidence for the development of the El Ni phenomenon. Phenomena that warm or cool the tropical Pacific, such as El Ni or La Niña, can affect average temperatures throughout the year, but these effects are usually not felt when El Ni begins to develop during the northern hemisphere summer.
As a result, the couple of scientists are also concerned that the effects of El Ni on global temperatures, which are usually delayed for several months, are felt only in winter and spring, and are now beginning to drift. Scientists predict that the greatest impact of El Ni will occur in February, March and April 2024. Analysis data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also showed signs of El Niño flourishing as large swathes of the warm tropical eastern Pacific darkened from high temperatures from late May to early August.
2. Has there been a major disaster near the United States?
NOAA analysts believe there is a more than 95 percent chance that the Kunzino phenomenon will persist throughout the winter. This high chance comes from the fact that the central and eastern tropical Pacific are currently quite warm. For example, the Niño 3.4 region in the Middle East Pacific last July. The national average sea surface temperature is 1.0 degrees higher than the long-term average, and the three-month average Niño 3.4 index (i.e. ocean Niño index) is 0.8 degrees higher than the long-term average from May to July, and it is 0.5 degrees higher than the Kongzino phenomenon threshold for the second consecutive year.
NOAA says the current standard is five consecutive three-month averages above that threshold to qualify as an "El Niño event," so the current situation leads scientists to believe that El Niño will continue into the northern hemisphere winter. This was almost the trend at the time.
Kongzio is a related phenomenon, which means that the changes in sea surface temperatures we see must correspond to changes in atmospheric patterns in the tropical Pacific. The mesoatmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific, called the Walker Circulation, acts like a conveyor belt: air rising over the very warm western Pacific and relatively rainy conditions, high west-to-east winds, sinking air and relatively rainy conditions in the atmosphere. Rainy conditions. Dry weather and close to the sea form winds from east to west - trade winds.
During El Niño, the central and eastern tropical Pacific seas warm, resulting in lower surface pressure and increased air, clouds and precipitation in the region, weakening atmospheric circulation. Weakening trade winds in the western Pacific and Indonesia brought dry weather and above-average pressure. The connection between the ocean and the atmosphere is both the way El Ni persists (changes in the atmosphere lead to changes in the oceans) and the way El Irni affects global weather and climate.
In July, climatologists observed increased rainfall and clouds in the central Pacific, dry weather in Indonesia and reduced trade wind activity in the western Pacific. The Southern Oscillation Index, which measures the relationship between surface pressure in the Pacific, was -0.9 in July, indicating lower pressure in the eastern Pacific and higher pressure in the western Pacific. All in all, these are all signs that the Conzio phenomenon is feeding back into the atmosphere. For example, in the last two days, a powerful hurricane "Hillary" formed in the eastern Pacific Ocean. It is currently expected to make landfall on the coasts of the United States and Mexico. It could become the first hurricane to make landfall in California since 1939.
3. Ernie can be stronger
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says above-average conditions in the central and eastern tropical Pacific will not only continue throughout the winter, but will also intensify. This winter's Ocean Niño Index is likely to peak (about 65 percent) at 1.5 degrees or more, which is NOAA's unofficial threshold for a "strong" Kongzio event.
Sea surface temperature changes associated with El Niño events typically peak from November to January, with most events peaking in winter and weakening in spring. As a result, the surface temperature has now reached 1 degree and there is still room for improvement in the coming months. Therefore, when it comes to the peak, there are still many opportunities to reach the threshold of the Kunzino powerhouse.
NOAA experts warn that if it reaches the level of a strong eln, the event could bring more chaotic and unstable climate change to the planet, such as exacerbating global warming trends, increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, and affecting agricultural production and agricultural production. Human health. Therefore, governments and societies should remain vigilant and strengthen response measures to reduce damage and risks.