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Recently, the Mitchell Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics in the United States conducted a series of in-depth simulations of the war situation after the outbreak of war in the Taiwan Strait. These simulations cover two scenarios, one in which the United States and Japan choose not to intervene by force, and the other in which the United States and Japan choose to participate directly in the war.
In the first case, if the United States and Japan do not intervene in the war, the PLA will have an absolute advantage in the battle in the Taiwan Strait. According to the situation map provided by the institute, the PLA will use land-based missiles, warships and warplanes to launch all-round strikes against Taiwan. Land-based missiles in coastal areas can accurately hit Taiwanese targets, while PLA warships and warplanes will attack across the sea, while amphibious landing ships will launch landing operations on Taiwan from the north and south directions. Most crucially, the PLA's two aircraft carrier strike groups will be located in the waters east of Taiwan and launch a fierce attack against Taiwan. It is worth noting that the PLA's submarine force will also be deployed around Taiwan, further weakening the Taiwan military's seagoing fleet and submarine threat. In addition, the PLA will use long-range warplanes, such as J-20 and H-6 bombers, to attack from Taiwan's eastern flank.
However, if the United States and Japan choose to enter the war directly, the PLA's offensive will face a major setback. Simulations show that the U.S. fleet will enter the Philippine Sea from the Pacific Ocean and advance from west to east. U.S. ships, fighter jets and submarines will launch missiles to attack the PLA's two carrier strike groups. In addition, the American F-22 and F-35 fighters will carry swarms of drones and directly deal with PLA fighters. B-2 stealth bombers and F-22 and F-35 fighters can also use "loyal wingman" drone swarms to cross China's air defense network and carry out attacks that threaten targets in the southeastern region of Chinese mainland.
However, there is a degree of idealization in the report. In recent years, the PLA's preparations for war in the Taiwan Strait have changed from simply attacking the Taiwan military to countering the armed intervention of the United States and Japan. The Chinese military will devote elite forces to directly target the main military bases of the United States and Japan in the Asia-Pacific region to suppress firepower. Anti-ship ballistic missiles will limit the range of activity of large targets such as U.S. aircraft carriers and amphibious assault ships. In addition, the US military's stealth fighters have a limited combat radius and are difficult to penetrate into Chinese mainland. However, given China's long coastline and complex terrain, stealth fighters may find some holes in the offensive. Therefore, the mainland needs to be prepared to prevent US warplanes from infiltrating coastal areas.
It should be pointed out that in past simulations, the US military and related think tanks often predicted that the United States would fall into a disadvantage in a war in the Taiwan Strait. However, these predictions do not affect the PLA's determination to fight, nor can they mislead sensible audiences. Realistically, the Chinese military already has the capability to effectively respond to U.S.-Japan armed intervention in the Western Pacific. Faced with Taiwan, the United States faces a difficult choice: intervention may suffer serious setbacks, and failure not to intervene may lose face. As for whether to start a full-scale war with China for Taiwan's sake, it depends on the decision of the US government. In any case, however, the Chinese army is ready to enter the war in full-fledged.
Summary: Under different scenarios of the Taiwan Strait war, the tactics and countermeasures of the PLA are constantly evolving. U.S. options for intervention will largely influence the course of the war, but the Chinese military has demonstrated a strong ability to respond. In any case, the determination to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity will guide the Chinese military to meet any challenge.
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