Overseas and Current Affairs Group
Zhang Jingjing S1090522050003 Chief Zhang Antian S1090522070002 Team leader report Release date: August 25, 2023
Text | China Merchants Macro Zhang Jingjing team
Core ideas
Against the backdrop of a gradually clearer economic recovery outlook and some sustainability in inflation, the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) yield curve control (YCC) adjustment at the end of July, but triggered market volatility, followed by another emergency bond purchase indicates that the BOJ is still concerned about excessive impact on the market. The Bank of Japan announced an adjustment to YCC policy at the end of July, which led to an increase in Japan's 10-year government bond yield and an emergency purchase by the central bank. After the relaxation of the YCC policy, the BOJ minutes pointed out that it is necessary to continue to implement monetary easing, and it is advisable to adopt more flexible yield curve control to deal with price risks.
In the medium term, the dynamics of Japan's expectations are likely to open up further policy space for the BOJ to make flexible adjustments. The inherently "pro-cyclical" nature of YCC policy suggests that timely adjustments to the YCC are necessary when inflation continues to rise. The BOJ's inflation expectations are changing dynamically. First, the momentum of inflation in Japan is switching, from imported inflation to more general price increases, and the second round of effects is transmitted to changes in wage and service prices. Second, the Japanese economy's medium- and long-term inflation expectations are rising, and there may be changes in tight labor market supply and labor negotiations in the later stage, so wage growth is somewhat sustainable supported by inflation expectations and tight supply.
All in all, the exit of the BOJ from the YCC or even negative interest rates will be one of the core contradictions in global financial markets in the coming year. So, is this change marketed Price-in? How much more disturbance will be generated? From QQE in 2012 to negative interest rates and YCC in 2016, Japanese financial institutions increased their holdings of overseas assets in large numbers as Japanese bond yields plummeted. In addition, the reversal of BOJ policy may bring two short-term impacts: 1) Japanese capital may reduce its holdings in overseas stock markets; 2) Carry trades are prone to reversals. Taking the eve of the interest rate meeting in late July 2023 as an example, Japan's net investment in overseas equities accumulated -2,054.1 billion yen in July and outflowed 98.5 billion yen in June, as the market remained cautious about the risk of the BOJ's monetary policy adjustment. After the BOJ interest rate meeting on July 28, the yields of government bonds in Europe, the United States and Japan are now rising, and most overseas stock indexes have been adjusted, and the BOJ's turn may have begun to have an impact on overseas capital markets.
From the perspective of medium- and long-term capital flows, the allocation behavior of Japanese financial institutions will also reverse. Japanese financial institutions' long-term overseas allocation funds have gradually reduced their international positions since 2022, and the pressure on overseas liquidity is expected to continue. Taking Japanese life insurance institutions as an example, from the perspective of investment portfolios, Japanese life insurance institutions have reduced their holdings of foreign bonds by a certain amount in 2022. From March 2022 to December 2022, Dai-ichi Life's portfolio was revised down from 16.8% to 8.6% in hedged foreign bonds, and the proportion of unhedged foreign bonds decreased from 4.4% to 3.5%, according to Daiichi Life Holdings Group.
At present, there is greater pressure on U.S. Treasury bonds, but there is also pressure on the U.S. credit bond market. Japanese holdings account for about 5% of U.S. bonds, and Japanese holdings of U.S. corporate bonds account for about 4.4% (the size of Japanese capital is about 350 billion US dollars, and the total size of the US USD IG market is close to 8 trillion US dollars). In terms of the current debt situation of non-financial companies in the United States, short-term debt accounted for 33.4% in 2022, but long-term bonds still accounted for the majority.
Finally, which other economies are vulnerable to changes in Japanese liquidity? Japan holds about 12% of Australian government bonds, Ireland more than 15%, Italy and Spain about 4%. In emerging economies, Japanese investment also accounts for more than 2% of the Mexican and Indonesian government bond markets.
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1. Japan's inflation dynamics may further expand the adjustment space of the BOJ's monetary policy framework
Against the backdrop of a gradually clearer economic recovery outlook and some sustainability in inflation, the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) yield curve control (YCC) adjustment at the end of July, but triggered market volatility, followed by another emergency bond purchase indicates that the BOJ is still concerned about excessive impact on the market.
The Bank of Japan announced an adjustment to YCC policy at the end of July, which led to an increase in Japan's 10-year government bond yield and an emergency purchase by the central bank. The BOJ monetary policy meeting left most of the contents unchanged, including keeping the benchmark interest rate at a record low of -0.1% and the 10-year government bond yield target around 0%, in line with market expectations. At the same time, by a vote of 8-1, it was decided to adjust the YCC policy: the yield of 10-year government bonds will be flexibly controlled, and the upper and lower limits of 0.5% fluctuations ±will no longer be "rigid limits" but "references", and the fixed interest rate level for daily JGB purchases will be raised from 0.5% to 1.0%. After the policy was released, the yield on Japanese 10-year government bonds rose rapidly, reaching 0.605% on July 31 and 0.654% on August 3. The Bank of Japan made two emergency bond purchases during the week, announcing on July 31 that it planned to buy 300 billion yen of 5-10-year government bonds, and on August 3, it announced that it planned to buy 300 billion yen of 5-10 year government bonds and 100 billion yen of 3-5 year government bonds.
After the easing of YCC policy, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said, "We have not yet seen stable inflation and wage growth, and the uncertainty of the economy and prices is very high, and we need to continue to patiently implement monetary easing to support the economy." The BOJ minutes pointed out that monetary easing needs to continue, and in the absence of turbulence, it is advisable to adopt more flexible yield curve control to deal with price risks.
However, the BOJ also said that if prices continue to rise, real interest rates will become lower, reinforcing the effect of monetary easing. The inherently "pro-cyclical" nature of YCC policy suggests that timely adjustments to the YCC are necessary when inflation continues to rise. Therefore, it is still necessary to pay close attention to the upside risks to inflation in Japan, especially changes in wage prices. In the medium term, it can be observed that Japan's inflation expectations are changing dynamically, which is likely to open up room for the Bank of Japan to further improve the effectiveness of its easing policy, thereby opening up room for flexible adjustments.
Although the BOJ forecasts a downward trend in inflation in the medium term, Japan's inflation expectations are changing dynamically. In the medium term, the dynamic changes in Japan's dynamic expectations are likely to provide the BOJ with more policy effectiveness and further open up policy space for flexible adjustment.
First, the momentum of inflation in Japan is switching, from imported inflation to more general increases in wages and service prices. Japan's CPI in June was 3.3% y/y (prior: 3.2%), and the core CPI after excluding fresh food was 3.3% y/y (prior: 3.2%), a slight rebound mainly due to food prices. The CPI (excluding fresh food and energy), known as the "core of the core", remained high year-on-year, rising 4.2% in June (prior: 4.3%). Compared with the April forecast, the Bank of Japan raised its forecast for core CPI (all goods except fresh food) for fiscal 2023 from 1.8% to 2.5% in July, mainly due to higher costs that caused past import price increases to affect consumer prices more than expected, but lowered the core CPI forecast for fiscal 2024 (all goods except fresh food) from 2.0% to 1.9%, believing that core CPI growth may slow down. The transmission effect of rising cost prices on consumer prices has weakened.
Second, the medium- and long-term inflation expectations of the Japanese economy have risen, and the wage growth rate may continue to be supported by inflation expectations, and there may be changes in tight labor market supply and labor negotiations in the later period. Japan's private sector wages have risen significantly after the pandemic and have been growing positively for 26 consecutive months, up 1.4% year-on-year in April (prior: 1.6%). The previous upside in inflation led to higher medium- and long-term inflation expectations for households and businesses. In the case of changes in medium- to long-term inflation expectations, the wage and price-setting behavior of Japanese companies is likely to support continued wage increases. With the prospects for Japan's economic fundamentals recovering relatively clear, the labor force participation rate of women and the elderly has slowed marginally in the near future, and in the future, there is a possibility that the labor market will be tight, further supporting the upward growth rate of wages.
Second, overseas liquidity may be subject to continuous pressure
The exit of the BOJ from the YCC or even negative interest rates will be one of the core contradictions in global financial markets in the coming year. So, is this change marketed Price-in? How much more disturbance will be generated?
The BOJ's policy will have a significant impact on overseas liquidity. From QQE in 2012 to negative interest rates and YCC in 2016, Japanese financial institutions increased their holdings of overseas assets in large numbers as Japanese bond yields plummeted. In addition, the reversal of BOJ policy may bring two short-term impacts: 1) Japanese capital may reduce its holdings in overseas stock markets; 2) Carry trades are prone to reversals.
From the perspective of stock market capital flow, taking the eve of the interest rate meeting in late July 23 as an example, as the market remains cautious about the risk of the BOJ's monetary policy adjustment, Japan's net investment in overseas equities accumulated -2,054.1 billion yen in July and outflowed 98.5 billion yen in June.
From the perspective of arbitrage transaction reversal, overseas liquidity will also have a certain "pumping" effect. According to the Bloomberg G10 Carry Trade Index, carry trade has been on the rise again since 2021 as the monetary policy cycles of economies are out of sync (Figure 6). However, with the gradual technical adjustments of the BOJ's monetary policy in December 2022 and July 23, the gains from the carry trade both fell sharply. Under Japan's long-term YCC monetary policy, the yen has extremely low financing costs and has been the most important financing currency in the G10 carry trade for a long time. At present, the market's expectations that the BOJ may further adjust the YCC at the October interest rate meeting are still strong, especially in the context of the 10-year yield hedge of Japanese bonds and the emergency bond purchase of the BOJ, the carry trade is prone to a reversal and overseas liquidity returning to Japan in anticipation of the October interest rate meeting.
From the perspective of medium- and long-term capital flows, the allocation behavior of Japanese financial institutions will also reverse. Japanese financial institutions' long-term overseas allocation funds have gradually reduced their international positions since 2022, and the pressure on overseas liquidity is expected to continue. Japanese financial institutions will take into account negative spillover pressures on other economies and will adopt a gradual adjustment approach. However, in the context of the US bond liquidity premium has been pushed up, it is still necessary to pay attention to the volatility risk of US Treasury yields.
In 2022, the Japanese portfolio had a net outflow of 12.96 trillion yen from the United States, and the Japanese portfolio inflowed about 3.04 trillion yen to U.S. stocks, which led to a total reduction of more than 9 trillion yen, or about $70 billion, in U.S. bond-like assets for the year.
Taking Japanese life insurance institutions as an example, from the perspective of investment portfolios, Japanese life insurance institutions have reduced their holdings of foreign bonds by a certain amount in 2022. From March 2022 to December 2022, Dai-ichi Life's portfolio investment ratio was revised down from 16.8% to 8.6%, and the proportion of investment in unhedged foreign bonds decreased from 4.4% to 3.5%, according to Dai-ichi Life Holdings Group. In fiscal 2022, the company achieved a net loss of 53.53 billion yen through the sale of foreign securities.
By currency, First Life's foreign bond holdings account for more than 60% of the total foreign bonds, while both have declined in 2022, from 46.6% to 44.9% and from 23.5% to 22.4%. In contrast, its investment in Australian dollar bonds rose sharply by 5.2 percentage points.
By asset type, Japanese life insurance companies will reduce their holdings of foreign interest rate bonds and increase their holdings of credit bonds in 2022. In March 2022, the majority of First Life's external debt portfolio was government and municipal bonds, which were 50.5%, but this proportion dropped to 34.8% at the end of 2022, and the proportion of corporate bonds held increased from 34.5% to 51.8%.
At present, there is greater pressure on U.S. Treasury bonds, but there is also pressure on the U.S. credit bond market. Japanese holdings account for about 5% of U.S. bonds, and Japanese holdings of U.S. corporate bonds account for about 4.4% (the size of Japanese capital is about 350 billion US dollars, and the total size of the US USD IG market is close to 8 trillion US dollars). Under the Fed's continuous interest rate hike, US companies have entered a high-interest rate financing environment, and there is a risk of rising the default rate of US credit bonds. However, from the current US non-financial corporate debt situation, short-term debt accounted for 33.4% in 2022, although it was higher than in previous years, long-term bonds still accounted for the majority, that is, US companies are not facing rapid refinancing demand at present, and are limited by the impact of rising interest rates.
Finally, which other economies are vulnerable to changes in Japanese liquidity? Japanese holdings account for about 12% of Australian government bonds, the Netherlands about 11%, France about 7%, Ireland more than 15%, the United Kingdom and Belgium about 5%, especially Italy and Spain, which are more vulnerable to financial markets and about 4%. In emerging economies, Japanese investment also accounts for more than 2% of the Mexican and Indonesian government bond markets.
Risk warning: overseas policy.
The above content is from the report "Bank of Japan Policy Shift: Black Swan Turns Gray Rhino - Overseas Liquidity Special Series (I)" on August 25, 2023, the author of the report Zhang Antian, the license number is S1090522070002, please refer to the research report for details.
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20230315 The Cost Before FED Policy Shift – Silicon Valley Bank Event Tracking
20230315 Inflation may gradually become a secondary contradiction - US CPI review for February
20230314 Summary of the main points and learning experience of the Prime Minister's answers to reporters' questions
20230314 Investment Demand Continues to Expand: China's Economy under the Microscopy (Issue 9/2023)
20230313 Strong Debt and Weak Stocks: Tracking of Asset Allocation in Large Categories (March 6-March 10)
20230313 Be wary of the transmission of negative factors overseas: Macro Week View (March 12, 2023)
20230312 Marginal changes in infrastructure real estate from a satellite perspective
20230312 Employment Doesn't Deliver Worse News – Analysis of US Employment Data for February
20230311 The "big and small month" rule of credit is finally broken——February financial data review
20230311 How do you view overseas liquidity risk? First "crisis" and then "opportunity" - Silicon Valley Bank incident commentary
20230310 How to understand that the CPI is significantly lower than expected - February inflation review
20230309 US labor market indicators are all combed
20230308 Exports are better than expected, import recovery still needs to wait - January-February import and export data review
20230307 There is no need to be overly pessimistic about exports
20230307 How to Understand the 5% GDP Target Growth Rate: China's Economy under the Microscopy (Issue 8, 2023)
20230306 After Expected Volatility, Focus on Recovery Structure – Macro Weekly View (March 5, 2023)
20230305 What can be seen from the limited information - Government Work Report Review
20230305 Strong Equity Market – Broad Asset Allocation Tracker (Feb. 27-Mar 3)
20230304 How will US inflation play out? Let's start with the relationship between money and inflation
20230303 Country-by-country credit risk evaluation index system
20230302 three facts and three conjectures from PMI – February PMI Review
20230301 Social financing picks up, continues to focus on production repair - February macroeconomic forecast report
20230301 How much of the global post-pandemic recovery dividend remains? Domestic service consumption
20230228 Can the Economic Recovery Be Sustained: China's Economy under the Microscopy (Issue 7, 2023)
20230227 Waiting with a "Safety Cushion" – Macro Week View (February 26, 2023)
20230226 USD Continues to Strengthen - Asset Allocation Tracker (Feb. 20-Feb. 24)
20230225 Steady and ruthless - interpretation of the fourth quarter "Monetary Policy Implementation Report"
20230224 Asset characteristics under the recovery of the growth gap between social finance and M2: the fourth part of the "Chinese QE" series of reports
20230223 Two Stages of Consumption Recovery - Domestic Demand Recovery Series Report (III)
20230222 Local government debt disposal and risks
20230221 High-frequency indicators are still in the process of seasonal recovery: China's economy under the microscope (Issue 6, 2023)
20230221 LPR unchanged, mortgage interest rate downward - February LPR quotation review
20230220 Lower slope but more sustainable – macro weekly view (February 19, 2023)
20230219 Credit bond yields continue to fall: tracking asset allocation (Feb. 13-Feb. 18)
20230218 What are the changes in Hegang after the fiscal restructuring?
20230217 Where has the inventory cycle of the upstream, midstream and downstream industries gone?
20230216 Steady growth across the board or moderate structural adjustment?
20230215 Rate cut late or absent – February MLF operation review
20230215 Exceeding expectations – January U.S. CPI review
20230215 Abandoning the old and establishing a new BOJ - Comment on the nomination of the Governor of the Bank of Japan
20230214 Production Situation Accelerates from the Bottom: China's Economy under the Microscopy (Issue 5, 2023)
20230214 Minutes of the February 12, 2023 "Total Perspective" conference call
20230213 Good News, Bad News and Divergence of Expectations – Macro Week View (February 12, 2023)
20230212 Three arrows of "Chinese QE"
20230212 Higher crude oil prices - asset allocation tracking (Feb. 6-Feb. 10)
20230211 Credit on Fire and Ice – A Review of Financial Data for January 2023
20230210 Inflation still does not pose the main current risk – January Inflation Review
20230207 Low Economic Improvement Will Not Affect the Pace of Stable Growth Policy: China's Economy under the Microscopy (Issue 4, 2023)
20230206 Two Expectations Difference – Macro Weekly View (February 5, 2023)
20230205 Commodity Prices Generally Weaken – Broad Asset Allocation Tracker (Jan 30-Feb 3)
20230205 Spring ploughing is not idle: the context of large-scale asset allocation
20230204 Overseas markets began to revise their expectations - analysis of US employment data for January
20230203 How much of the global post-pandemic recovery dividend remains? Entry and exit
20230202 It's time to be wary of the balance sheet shock – February FOMC review
20230201 Economic Repair, Inflation First – January Macroeconomic Forecast
20230131 How to assess recovery strength and policy mapping: January PMI review
20230131 The decline in profit growth in the month has now narrowed - December 2022 profit analysis of industrial enterprises
20230131 Economic Repair, Narrowing of Fiscal Balance of Revenue and Expenditure: Review of December 2022 Fiscal Data
20230130 Is the pre-holiday heat sustainable? – Macro Week View (January 28, 2023)
20230129 A small step in recovery: domestic keywords for the Spring Festival holiday
20230128 Overseas events during the Spring Festival
20230127 Changes in U.S. Consumer Behavior After the Pandemic: One-off, or Sustainable?
20230126 "Chinese QE" table and inside
20230125 The Economic Significance of Real Estate Recovery Beyond the Real Estate Chain - Domestic Demand Recovery Series (II)
20230124 Five questions exit
20230123 Foreign Capital Continues to Deploy the Mainland Equity Market - Tracking of Large Asset Allocation (Jan 16-Jan 20)
20230122 Supply and Demand Hit the Bottom and Wait for a Post-holiday Rebound: China's Economy under the Microscopy (Issue 3, 2023)
20230120 Unchanged as expected – January LPR quote review
20230119 How risky are the US credit markets?
20230118 How will the RMB exchange rate move after 6.7?
20230118 Some Surprises and Implications of Economic Data – December Economic Data Review
20230117 The Beginning of Recovery – Macro Week View (14 January 2023)
20230116 What should I do if the January rate cut fails? ——January MLF operation preview
20220116 Positive Equity Market – Broad Asset Allocation Tracker (Jan 9-Jan 13)
20220116 What should I do if the January rate cut fails? ——January MLF operation preview
20230115 Price First: China's Economy under the Microscopy (Issue 2, 2023)
20230114 Which industries are most constrained by external demand? ——Review of import and export data for December
20230114 The probability of the US CPI falling below 3 during the year has increased sharply - December US CPI review
20230113 The Phantom of Recovery Inflation Emerges – December Inflation Review
20230112 Finance will exert efforts in five aspects
20230111 Social finance nearing bottoming out – a review of December financial data
20230110 right and wrong of reducing savings
20230109 Economic Short-Cycle Lows Have Passed – Macro Weekly View (January 7, 2023)
20230108 RMB Assets Stay Strong – Broad Asset Allocation Tracker (Jan 2-Jan 7)
20230107 Employment Resilience and Recession Prospects: Analysis of US Employment Data for December
20230106 Manufacturing to the Left and Services to the Right: China's Economy under the Microscopy (Issue 1, 2023)
20230105 Recruit defensive savings, excess savings and spending potential
20230104 Obscure - December macroeconomic forecasts
20230103 Positive Signals – Macro Week View (December 31, 2022)
20230102 Time to leave the old and welcome the new, the time to travel light - PMI review in December
20230102 Sluggish Equity Market Trading Volume – Tracking of Asset Allocation by Large Classes (Dec 26-Dec 30)
20221231 High-frequency Data of Epidemic Prevention Optimization and Breakthrough Impact: China's Economy under the Micromicroscope (Issue 36, 2022)
20221231 Interest rate cut is imminent - commentary on the fourth quarter monetary policy meeting
20221230 Post-epidemic consumption recovery from two tables of residents - domestic demand recovery series (1)
20221229 The resilience of the U.S. economy and the implications of China's liberalization
20221228 Before dawn – analysis of profits of industrial enterprises in November 2022
20221226 What expectations does the market take into account? – Macro Week View (December 24, 2022)
20221225 Bond Market Recovery: Tracking of Asset Allocation (Dec 19-Dec 23)
20221224 Bank of Japan Operation Six Questions
20221223 Chinese QE on the String: A Preview of the National Financial Work Conference
20221222 Will there be a labor gap when the economy restarts?
20221221 Annual fiscal revenue or less than expected - November fiscal data review
20221220 Waiting for the MLF Downgrade to Break - December LPR Quote Review
20221220 Minutes of the December 18, 2022 "Total Perspective" Conference Call
20221219 Strong Expectations and Convergence of Weak Reality – Macro Week View (December 17, 2022)
20221219 Decline in Risk Appetite in Internal and External Markets: Tracking of Asset Allocation (Dec. 12-Dec. 16)
20221218 End-of-Quarter Impulse or the Impact of Epidemic Prevention Optimization: China's Economy under the Microscopy (Issue 35, 2022)
20221217 The Swing of the Scales - Five Points of the Central Economic Work Conference
20221216 Back to Reality – November Economic Data Review
20221216 Reinforcements have arrived - December MLF Operation Review
20221215 Short Eagle; Long pigeons – December 2022 FOMC review
20221214 Standing at the beginning of a new cycle - the outlook for asset allocation in 2023
20221214 US real interest rate will turn positive in 23Q2 - US CPI review for November
20221213 Easing credit needs to be matched by interest rate cuts - November financial data review
20221212 The Rhythm of the Domestic Epidemic and Its Impact on the Capital Market: The Impact of Domestic Epidemic Prevention Relaxation Series (II)
20221211 Be wary of fluctuations in internal and external expectations – Macro Week View (December 10, 2022)
20221211 Divergence in Sentiment in Sino-US Equity Markets: Tracking of Asset Allocation (Dec 5-Dec 9)
20221209 Is inflation under pressure – November inflation review
20221208 Two Key Changes at the Politburo Meeting – China's Economy under the Microscopy (Issue 34, 2022)
20221207 It's time to expand domestic demand: November 2022 import and export data review
20221206 Spring is no longer far away – macro week perspectives (December 4, 2022)
20221205 How to view consumption and inflation after the relaxation of epidemic prevention in China
20221204 Trading on Positive Signals – Tracking of Asset Allocation by Broad Classes (Nov 28-Dec 2)
20221203 Need to worry about hourly wage growth? ——Analysis of U.S. employment data for November 2022
20221202 Accelerating Clearance Helps the Economy Restart: China's Economy under the Microscopy (Issue 33, 2022)
20221201 Internal and External Turning Point - November Macroeconomic Forecast Report
20221130 Before Things Get Better – November PMI Review
20221129 Has the worst been over?
20221128 Profit growth rate bottoming: analysis of industrial enterprise profits in October 2022
20221127 Marginal Stabilization of Production Situation: China's Economy under the Microscopy (Issue 32, 2022)
20221127 Market Game Intensified by Epidemic Volatility - Tracking of Asset Allocation (Nov 21-Nov 25)
20221126 RRR Reduction Coming as Scheduled - A Review of the Central Bank's RRR Reduction Operation
20221125 Economy, Policies and Assets of Vietnam, Hong Kong and Taiwan after Relaxation of Epidemic Prevention - Overseas Epidemic Prevention Liberalization Observation Series (3)
20221124 Economic, Policy and Asset Performance of Japan, South Korea and New Zealand after "Lying Flat": Overseas Epidemic Prevention Liberalization Observation Series (2)
20221123 Economic, Policy and Asset Performance of the United States, Europe and Britain after "Lying Flat"——Overseas Epidemic Prevention Liberalization Observation Series (1)
20221122 The Resurgence of the Digital Currency Market - Overseas Risk Early Warning Series (2)
20221121 Vietnam on the cusp of the storm - overseas risk warning series (1)
20221120 Domestic Demand is the Fundamentals – Macro Weekly View (November 19, 2022)
20221119 The "currency bridge" test was launched, and cross-border settlement of digital RMB was accelerated
20221118 Has monetary policy begun to converge? ——Interpretation of the "Monetary Policy Implementation Report" in the third quarter
20221117 Sparks in October Economic Data – China's Economy under the Microscopy (Issue 31, 2022)
20221117 Fiscal revenue catches up with progress, and the growth rate of infrastructure expenditure returns to positive
20221116 The drawdown is in line with the logic of recent monetary policy operations: MLF operation review in November 2022
20221116 Will the next phase of economic repair be better than expected?
20221115 Standing at the top of the US dollar - 2023 macroeconomic outlook overseas
20221114 Real estate policy relaxation enters the third stage: timing and impact
20221114 Data to the left, expectations to the right – macro weekly view (November 12, 2022)
20221113 Crossroads – 2023 Macroeconomic Outlook Domestic Chapter
20221112 Financing Environment for Real Estate Developers May Start to Improve: China's Economy under the Microscopy, Issue 30, 2022
20221112 U.S. inflation that cooled more than expected: U.S. CPI review for October
20221111 Bright spot in the decline: the growth rate of medium and long-term loans of enterprises continued to rise
20221110 Democratic Party "small defeat", the market may enter recession trading - 2022 US midterm election review
20221109 Variables in Inflation – October Inflation Review
20221108 External demand accelerates and weakens: a review of October import and export data
20221107 Positive Signals Inside and Out – Macro Week View (November 5, 2022)
20221106 These economies, changes in consumption after "lying flat"
20221105 Unemployment bottoming out and rising gradually becoming clearer - US employment data analysis for October
20221104 Is the inventory cycle over? China's Economy under the Microscopy (Issue 29, 2022)
20221103 Reiterating inflation targets ahead of midterm elections cannot be "wrong" – November FOMC review
20221102 Those emerging market crises during the FED rate hike period
20221101 Pandemic under pressure, infrastructure continues to make efforts – macroeconomic forecast report (October 2022)
20221031 The epidemic is in full swing – October PMI review
20221030 Fed rate hike constraints are gradually strengthening - US GDP data review for the third quarter of 2022
20221030 Fork in the Road – Macro Week View (October 29, 2022)
20221029 How to see the last-ditch effort before the midterm elections
20221028 How demand follows supply improvements
20221028 The profit structure continues to sink
20221027 Top 20 companies and industries in the report
20221027 Infrastructure growth rate in the fourth quarter is still guaranteed——September 2022 fiscal data review
20221026 the confidence of the central bank
20221025 "Economic Account" and Structural Characteristics under the Epidemic: A Review of Economic Data in the Third Quarter
20221025 Export resistance rises further: review of import and export data for September 2022
20221024 Why is there no "wage-inflation" spiral in the US?
20221023 Finding Opportunities in Equilibrium – Macro Week Perspectives (October 22, 2022)
20221021 The need for an across-the-board rate cut has increased
20221021 Delicate Moments: China's Economy under the Microscopy (Issue 27, 2022)
20221020 Monetary Policy in 2022: Broad but not spillover, precise drip irrigation
20221019 Shi or Yin Shi? ——The context of asset allocation (Q4 2022)
20221018 Changes in the rhythm of liquidity regulation: MLF operation review in October 2022
20221018 The prosperity of many industries in the middle and downstream is rising——The prosperity series (3)
20221017 Chinese-style modernization – the report's brightest keyword
20221017 Positive Signals Are Growing – Macro Week View (October 15, 2022)
20221016 Rising Prices – China's Economy under the Microscopy (Issue 26, 2022)
20221015 How to understand the difference between the internal and external inflation situation
20221015 2022 Finance: Positive, Precise and Sustainable
20221014 Core inflation nearing peak – US CPI review for September
20221014 Realization of comprehensive balance - the effect of the package of policies to stabilize the economy in 2022 will be reviewed
20221013 How far is overseas from a liquidity crisis?
20221012 The inflection point in the growth rate of medium- and long-term loans of enterprises has arrived
20221011 China's Overseas Investment Layout in the Post-epidemic Era: Global Industrial Chain Series (II)
20221010 Gold: The left-hand indicator of equity assets
20221009 Summary of important domestic data and information during the National Day holiday
20221009 What does it mean for the unemployment rate to fall in tandem with hourly wages?
20221008 Eleventh holiday overseas those things
20221007 Change expectations to change the trend - the effect of this round of real estate policy measurement
20221006 Upper Limit of ASEAN Industrial Undertaking - Global Industrial Chain Series (I)
20221005 What is manufacturing afraid of? - Japan 2011-2015 mirror review
20221002 Q3 economic growth is expected to be in the range of 3.7-4.2%.
20221001 Industrial Production May Exceed Expectations in September – China's Economy Under the Microscope (Issue 25/2022)
20220930 Highlights, Worries, Opportunities – September PMI Review
20220930 Promoting consumption has become a new goal of policy force——Commentary on the third quarter monetary policy meeting
20220929 New support for credit in the fourth quarter - evaluation of the central bank's establishment of special re-lending for equipment renovation
20220928 Italian election: a puzzle game
20220927 Q4 repair situation does not change - August 2022 industrial enterprise profit analysis
20220926 Is it expected to be fixed? ——Macro Week View (September 24, 2022)
20220925 RRR reduction can be expected
20220924 Bank of England's impossible triangle: fiscal easing, anti-inflation, reserve status
20220923 Real Estate Completion Improvement Momentum Expected to Continue: China's Economy under the Microscopy (Issue 24, 2022)
20220922 The Boundaries of Fed Rate Hikes – September FOMC Review
20220921 Completion recovery: an easily overlooked economic bright spot
20220920 How much space is there for the PBOC to "focus on me"? ——Also commenting on the September 2022 LPR quotation
20220919 The Economy Is Still Doing Additions – Macro Week View (September 17, 2022)
20220918 Investment Macro | How much does incremental policy have a pulling effect?
20220917 Uneven Hot and Cold Structural Differentiation: China's Economy under the Microscopy (Issue 23, 2022)
20220916 The Urgency of Further Stabilizing Domestic Demand: A Review of August Economic Data
20220915 How much consumption is worth waiting for – outlook for the consumption situation in the fourth quarter
20220915 Understand the combination of "MLF+ deposit rate"
20220914 Poor inflation expectations may renew overseas volatility in June – U.S. CPI analysis for August 2022
20220913 September or June for mini – Macro Week View 0912
20220912 Do not overestimate policy tools and underestimate the effect of stabilizing real estate
20220911 Will the growth rate of social finance rebound in September?
20220909 Inflation's influence on policy will tend to wane – August Inflation Review
20220908 The epidemic in Chengdu and Shenzhen will not affect the economic performance in September
20220908 In the cross-high temperature and power curtailment, which industries are likely to continue?
20220907 How do four new changes affect exports? ——Review of import and export data for August 2022
20220906 Easing the slope of RMB exchange rate depreciation: a comment on the central bank's reduction of foreign exchange reserve ratio
20220906 Decision September - The Context of Large-scale Asset Allocation (September 2022)
20220905 Rising Short-Term Certainty – Macro Weekly View 0903
20220904 Is 3.5% a psychological threshold for the Fed?
20220903 September FOMC may be a watershed - US non-farm payrolls data analysis for August 2022
20220902 Production Repair Travel declined
20220901 Infrastructure investment growth will exceed 10% – August macroeconomic data forecast
20220831 Where is the fiscal space?
20220831 Things are changing – August PMI review
20220830 Is there much pressure on the depreciation of the RMB?
20220829 Understand the correct posture for "flood irrigation"
20220829 Internal Pressures and External Risks: Macro Weekly View 0827
20220828 Possible impact of the European energy crisis
20220828 Q3 or the bottom of the annual industrial profit growth rate - July 2022 industrial enterprise profit analysis
20220827 Powell, who has turned hawkish again, is the key - comments on the meeting of Jackson Hole, a global central bank
20220826 Rising overseas energy and electricity prices may help the mainland export exceed expectations throughout the year
20220825 Five questions about the high temperature in the south: is the impact really coming to an end?
20220824 The impact of power curtailment in Sichuan in high-frequency data
20220823 Review of the effects of this round of policy - from emotional repair, financial support to fundamental improvement
20220822 How to understand the LPR reduction? The balance between real estate and exchange rates
20220822 Policy Focuses on Striving for the Best Outcome – Macro Weekly View 0820
20220821 Where the scales of broad asset classes are tilted
20220820 The political accounting of epidemic prevention does not affect the demand for economic work to achieve the best results
20220819 The path to use the special debt limit may be faster and clearer
20220819 Under the "Chip Quadripartite Alliance", what is the focus of industrial upgrading?
20220818 Looking at the prospects of the mainland's industrial upgrading from the experience of the United States, Japan and South Korea
20220817 Accurately check the RMB exchange rate
20220816 The feasibility of returning to recovery and the decisiveness of real estate at the end of the year
20220816 In the midterm elections, do the Democrats still have a chance of winning?
20220815 Start the interest rate cut cycle - August MLF rate cut commentary 20220814 If oil prices rebound again 20220814 Short-term goals and medium- and long-term demands of policy: macro weekly view 081320220813 Domestic commodity futures and spot prices have picked up one after another
20220812 Looking for a new fulcrum of social finance 20220811 stepping on the rhyme of inflation——Interpretation of the "Monetary Policy Implementation Report" in the second quarter of 2022 20220810 How does the reappearance of inflation in the 19-year pattern affect macro policy? ——July Inflation Review 20220809 Can the Inflation Reduction Act reverse the midterm elections? 20220809 Structural Highlights in the Weak Recovery from the Perspective of the Meso Research Framework: Meso-Prosperity Series (I)
20220808 Evolution path prospect and reconstruction risk assessment of global industrial chain
20220807 Industrial chain advantages may make exports continue to exceed expectations——— July 2022 import and export data review
20220807 Declining Certainty – Macro Weekly View 0807
20220806 Just go down the donkey or have twists and turns? ——The context of large-scale asset allocation (August 2022)
20220806 Overseas markets may return to volatility – analysis of US non-farm payrolls data for July 2022
20220805 China Capital Market Open Handbook 2022
20220804 Industrial chain under the changing situation - the warning that many manufacturing countries have fallen into trade deficits
20220803 Watch for positive signals on price and travel data
20220802 Recovery under Multiple Shocks and Multiple Constraints – Macroeconomic Data Forecast for July
20220802 How will money market liquidity return to neutral in 2020?
20220801 Potential structural highlights of manufacturing falling behind beyond expectations – July PMI review
20220801 Recovery enters a period of divergence - macro weekly view 0731
20220730 Is the U.S. in recession? ——Review of US GDP data for the second quarter of 2022
20220729 Make good use of established policies, persistence is victory – five key answers from the Politburo meeting
20220729 China's export situation from the perspective of export delivery value
20220728 If the Fed "covers" the hole again - July FOMC review
20220727 Dual circulation is upgrading - analysis of import and export commodity structure in the first half of 2022
20220727 After the V-shaped repair of profits, focus on certainty - June 2022 profit analysis of industrial enterprises
20220726 Will the funding rate gap converge in August?
20220725 Short-term position and long-term style of U.S. stocks
20220724 Domestic demand is weak, but the inflection point of Sino-US interest rate differentials has begun to emerge - macro weekly view 0724
20220723 "Off-season" under high temperatures - Economic Observation Series (1)
20220722 What other black swans are overseas?
20220721 How much GDP growth is needed to stabilize employment?
20220720 Balancing real estate stability and risk prevention, LPR quotations remained stable in July
20220719 How recovery transactions will evolve: The context of asset allocation by large class (Q3 2022)
20220717 Four macro scenarios and large-scale asset rotation driven by political cycles
20220716 Fast-paced revenue reduction and expenditure increase, where is the road in the second half of the year?
20220715 Three scenarios for the future: analysis of China's economic data in the second quarter of 2022
20220714 Two key data ahead of the July FOMC: 100BP rate hike?
20220714 Where does the money go?
20220714 Credit Differentiation and Leverage Recovery: A Review of the Press Conference on Financial Statistics in the First Half of the Year
20220713 Residents' initiative to cut off supply and stop the project mortgage impact assessment
20220713 Hidden worries after high export growth
20220712 Dragon Repentance – June Financial Data Review
20220711 Which sectors to watch in July based on profit expectations?
20220710 Start of the pig cycle – June inflation data review
20220710 Pressure to control inflation is still strong, and expectations of interest rate hikes in July strengthen - US non-farm payrolls review in June
20220709 FDI flows into China at an accelerated rate, where does it come from and where is it going?
20220708 Behind the proximity of the euro and the US dollar
20220708 Post-pandemic reshaping of global value chains, exchange rate resilience and manufacturing competitiveness
20220707 Consumption of services is showing signs of improvement
20220706 Where do recession expectations come from and where are they going?
20220705 The double meaning of the central bank's 3 billion investment
20220705 A brief review on the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
20220704 Inflation rises as the pandemic recedes – Macroeconomic forecasts (June 2022)
20220702 Structural highlights under consensus expectations of a slowdown in exports
20220701 Changes and unchanged monetary policy in the third quarter
20220701 The internal and external demand drives are switching directions
20220630 Positive signals continue to increase
20220629 If U.S. stocks fall again, can A-shares continue to be desensitized
20220628 The foundation of recovery is not solid, and we actively pay attention to the middle and lower streams
20220627 Three scenario assumptions for economic movements
20220626 Domestic Economy: Recovery Fears Shocks – Medium-term Macroeconomic Outlook for 2022
20220625 Waiting for the blossom to bloom – 2022 Medium-term Macroeconomic Outlook Fiscal Chapter
20220625 Why did the price of rebar futures fall sharply?
20220624 The total volume is not weak, and the structure is good - 2022 medium-term macroeconomic outlook currency
20220623 Will there be a liquidity crisis overseas?
20220622 Exit to the left; Imports to the Right - 2022 Medium-term Macroeconomic Outlook Foreign Trade Chapter
20220621 Inflationary Pressures: Weak Externally and Strong Internally – Inflation in the Medium-Term Macroeconomic Outlook for 2022
20220620 Shock Easing – Macroeconomic Outlook for 2022 Overseas
20220619 The impact of the Fed's rate hike is already being felt
20220618 Local government funds are under tremendous pressure to collect and disburse
20220617 The supply side repairs faster than the demand side
20220616 It's time to consider the conditions for the FED to end the rate hike
20220615 Stick to recovery trading
20220614 Compatible with the economic growth path of dynamic zeroing
20220613 What else should I pay attention to when exports, PMI and social finance exceed expectations?
20220612 The Last Rush in Oil Prices: What If the US CPI Does Not Fall?
20220612 Poor credit expectations are realized
20220611 How will the CPI go in different scenarios in the third and fourth quarters?
20220610 Exports exceeded expectations, are they new or have a backlog in April?
20220609 How to view the game of supply and demand of crude oil?
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