The US and Vietnamese media have recently reported that China's activities in the South China Sea have attracted widespread attention. The "War Zone" column of Power, a well-known US website, pointed out on August 17 that after an in-depth analysis of commercial satellite images of Planet Lab, it was found that China has begun infrastructure construction on the southernmost island of the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea. Particularly striking is the island's new 609-meter-long and 13-meter-wide airport runway, which has the capability to take off and land short-haul aircraft, helicopters and medium- and long-endurance drones.
In addition, a large new construction area has been set up on the island, including some major buildings, such as a cement factory. Comparing previous satellite images, it can be seen that until mid-July, the island's facilities were relatively simple, with only one observation station, two radomes, a small port, a helipad and a prominent Chinese flag.
The speed of construction this time shocked the US media, and they commented: "Surprising construction speed." At the same time, Vietnamese military journalists also reported on the incident, who pointed out that in just the past few weeks, China has begun to actively build airport runways on the nearest island to Vietnam. Looking at the timeline, from mid-July to now, this large-scale project has only taken about a month.
China has demonstrated impressive capabilities in the technology of island and reef construction, and in less than a month, China has shown remarkable changes. Specifically, a comparison of satellite images from 30 March to 10 August clearly shows the island's enormous expansion. The media in the United States also paid corresponding attention and described this.
Such efficient construction of islands and reefs is due to China's cutting-edge construction machinery, the "Tianwhale" and "Tiankun". Among them, "Sky Whale" is a self-propelled suction dredger, which has a dredging capacity of up to 4,500 cubic meters per hour and can maintain a 24-hour uninterrupted working mode. The dredging efficiency of the "Tiankun" is as high as 6,000 cubic meters per hour, which means that it can complete the reclamation of the land of a football field in just one hour. Within 24 hours, this figure will reach 40,000 square meters. With such an efficient state-level heavy weapon, China can do almost everything in the construction of islands and reefs.
Two pictures to do this
In the past, the Chinese soldiers guarding the South China Sea could only live in "stilt houses" on the sea, and the living conditions were extremely difficult. In such a living environment, even pet dogs will become anxious because of the environment. This reminds us more deeply of the hardships and sacrifices of the soldiers who guarded the South China Sea. Today's expansion of Zhongjian Island is based on their efforts and perseverance for the country, because with their protection, we can have today's development and construction.
Once China wants to "plant islands" on a large scale, you can imagine how much more land will be in the South China Sea!
China's technology and speed in building islands and reefs is indeed impressive, and if such "planting islands" are massively expanded, the South China Sea will show more new landmass. Especially in the Paracel Islands, China's island construction is undoubtedly legal and legitimate, because there are no territorial disputes in this area. In fact, Hainan's "Sansha City" government is located on Woody Island in the Xisha Islands. The island of Zhongjian, where the focus is today, is located at the southernmost tip of the Paracel Islands, 166 kilometers from Woody Island and only 250 kilometers from Vietnam. The name is derived from the warship "Zhongjian" used by China to receive the Paracel Islands in 1946, which is full of historical significance.
The reasons behind the frequent hype of the United States as "planting islands" in the South China Sea are quite obvious. The close proximity of the island to Vietnam allows the island's firepower deployment to cover a wide area of Vietnam. The United States may try to stir up tensions between China and Vietnam by hyping up the matter. But it is worth noting that Vietnam currently occupies 29 of China's islands and reefs, so Vietnam is practically not qualified to comment on China's construction on its own territory. In addition to demonstrating national strength and supporting economic development, China's island construction is also necessary for some military deployment. These deployments are more in response to the United States than to regional countries.
The American media also have a clear view on this. They argue that the island will enhance the PLA's surveillance range and improve its "area denial" capabilities in the South China Sea, making it an outpost to protect the nuclear submarine fleet departing from Hainan Island. Obviously, this "denial" strategy is mainly aimed at countries outside the region, including the United States. In fact, U.S. media mentioned that China demonstrated actual long-range anti-ship ballistic missile capabilities for the first time near the Paracel Islands in August 2020. With surveillance technology on islands and reefs, Chinese anti-ship missiles will strike warships more accurately, and this strike is mainly aimed at the United States, because only the United States has large warships that need to be hit with such missiles.
Whether China's "planting islands" activities in the South China Sea are related to the provocations of the United States and the Philippines is indeed a complex issue. It can be said that there is both a connection and independence between the two.
First of all, China's island and reef construction activities in the South China Sea are absolutely planned and purposeful. This is not a whim. China has a clear plan for when and on which islands to build. Therefore, even if the United States and the Philippines do not provoke, sooner or later the construction activities on these islands will proceed.
At the same time, however, we cannot ignore the role of political factors. While China's construction of islands and reefs is planned, the actual pace and timeline of construction may be influenced by external factors, especially external provocations related to disputes in the South China Sea. For example, construction of the island may have been planned to begin in a few years, but due to the provocations of the United States and the Philippines at Ren'ai Jiao, China may feel the need to accelerate its layout in the South China Sea, thus advancing the construction timeline.
Past history also proves this. In 2012, at the instigation of the United States, the Philippines and China entered into a dispute over Scarborough Shoal. In response, China began to accelerate the "planting of islands" in the South China Sea in 2013, and in just a few years, it has built or expanded eight major islands and reefs in the South China Sea, such as Gaven Reef, Chigua Reef, and Fiery Cross Island.
And in 2023, in the face of a new round of US-Philippine provocations, China has once again accelerated the construction of the Paracel Islands. If the United States and the Philippines continue to provoke, it cannot be ruled out that China will further promote construction in Zhongsha Qundao and Nansha Qundao. Among them, Scarborough Shoal, Cypress Reef, Oxbow Reef, etc. are all potential construction targets. If the provocation intensifies, China may even expand construction to Ren'ai Reef or even Thitu Island.
Because of this, I think the United States and the Philippines should not easily provoke China. Because once China decides to go all out for the construction of islands and reefs, its strong construction capacity will be astounding. China not only has large equipment such as the Celestial Whale and the Tiankun Tianku, but also more than 200 suction vessels, which are all strong backings for China's construction in the South China Sea. If all are put into use, the construction of islands and reefs in the South China Sea will be completed quickly.
The United States has a conspiracy in the South China Sea!
By inciting Sino-Philippine relations, the United States has tried to establish a military station in the Philippines. Although the United States has a formidable aircraft carrier fleet, its warships have been targeted in the confrontation with China in the South China Sea. The vulnerability of U.S. carriers in the South China Sea was demonstrated in 2016, when China released the coordinates of two U.S. carriers, leading to an emergency withdrawal of U.S. troops.
Therefore, the United States needs a large military base in the South China Sea, and the Philippines is the most likely candidate. The United States may be trying to persuade the current Philippine government to allow U.S. troops to be stationed by provoking tensions between China and the Philippines. And China, despite its restraint, will inevitably respond in the face of constant provocations by the Philippines with the support of the United States. These responses could include land reclamation in the Spratly Islands.
China's recent construction activities in the Paracels could also be seen as a warning to the Philippines not to become a proxy for the United States again. But given the current administration's decision, whether the Philippines will understand the warning remains a question mark. In addition to fanning the flames, the United States may also induce the Philippine government through economic interests. And when China finally decides to act in the South China Sea, its actions will inevitably focus on building islands and reefs.
Many fear that such actions could lead to direct conflict between the United States and China, but historically, the United States has not taken substantial action despite China's previous land reclamation in the South China Sea. The real goal of the United States may be to station troops in the Philippines, not to go to war with China. For China, when tensions become tense, it may have to build in the South China Sea. And the United States may continue to push and support other countries to provoke China.
The Philippines needs to choose its position wisely. In the Sino-US game in the South China Sea, small countries such as the Philippines may become victims. If not careful, the Philippines could become part of the battlefield once conflict breaks out. Philippine leaders should carefully weigh this risk to ensure the country's long-term interests and stability.