Philippine debt rose to $277.8 billion. How can the Philippine side not be worried? After characterizing the Taiwan issue as a national security issue, the Philippines began to adopt a detour policy to avoid provoking China or pushing the Philippines to the brink of war. Even the foreign minister said that China and the Philippines are not at war at present. But at the same time, the Philippines has not given up and is trying to find a breakthrough around China.
Philippine Secretary of the Treasury de Leon
Recently, Philippine Finance Secretary De Leon said in the Senate Finance Committee that by the end of 2024, the national debt is expected to reach 15.8 trillion Philippine pesos, or about $277.8 billion. This year, the Philippine government will pay 582.3 billion pesos in interest on a loan of 14 trillion pesos. Since the treasury is still in a "deficit", it is unlikely that government borrowing will be reduced immediately. However, the Philippine government must continue to borrow to fund the budget.
Philippine debt rose to a record 14.15 trillion pesos in June. At the end of June last year it was 12.79 trillion pesos. It can be seen that after Marcos took office, the Philippine debt increased by about 1.31 trillion pesos. However, de Leon believes that the Philippines' debt level is still at the level of other countries.
"The Philippines' debt-to-GDP ratio is 61 percent, compared to 61.67 percent in Malaysia and 61.57 percent in Thailand..." But under the Philippine medium-term fiscal framework, the Philippine government plans to reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio. GDP ratio. He said that by 2025, the share of GDP will reach 60%. % to 51.1% by 2028. However, the Philippines' current debt-to-GDP ratio has exceeded the target set by the Philippine side.
Commenting on the state of the Philippines' economy, Barissakan, director of the National Economic Development Agency, said, "A country like the Philippines has a lot of development needs, and if it wants to achieve rapid development, it needs access to external or internal resources. "The Philippines can do it without borrowing money. However, 1%, 2% growth is clearly not ideal..."Philippine Finance Secretary Diokno said: "Investing in infrastructure can stimulate economic growth." ASEAN neighbors have invested, and the share is 10%. "The Philippine economy must also invest."
However, China, as the Philippines' largest trading partner, largest source of imports and second largest export market, also has a decisive impact on the Philippine economy. During Duterte's six years in power, China's "Belt and Road" initiative and the Philippines' "big build and special construction" plan are deeply intertwined, and a series of China-Philippines cooperation projects have been implemented one after another. All this proves from the side that the Philippines cannot give up its economic relations with China. Presumably, it is precisely for this reason that after the recent conflict between China and the Philippines at Ren'ai Jiao, the Philippines now seems to want to lower its "tone", go downhill, or try to "deal" with China from other angles.
Philippine Foreign Minister Manaro
At a recent Foreign Department budget hearing by the House Appropriations Committee, Philippine Foreign Minister Manaro said the Philippines and China are not in a "state of war" and remain committed to embracing "diplomacy and foreign policy" in formal negotiations with China. Peace. "Ways to resolve differences. At present, the Philippine side has discussed joint patrols with the United States, Japan, Australia and even China. If other ASEAN countries have suggestions, the Philippines is also very willing to consider them.
He also noted that the Philippines has lodged about 400 diplomatic protests against China's activities in the South China Sea since 2020. Against this backdrop, the Philippines is open to joint patrols with ASEAN countries in the South China Sea. Currently, the Philippine government is considering signing VFA agreements with Asian allies "close to China" to strengthen defense, security and economic ties with them. Previously, the Philippines had signed this agreement with the United States and Australia, and regularly conducted joint exercises and training with the United States and Australia.
In May, U.S. Defense Secretary Austin held talks with Marcos at the Pentagon
Asked if the Philippines plans to introduce a resolution on the South China Sea issue at the UN General Assembly, Manaro said: "The Philippine government is not sure whether the UN General Assembly resolution condemns China for violating the so-called 'Philippines' exclusive economic policy." 'The international community has accepted this zone of cooperation. The Philippine side believes that there are many factors that need to be considered when submitting a resolution to the UN General Assembly. Legal decisions should not be made by political institutions. And General Assembly resolutions have become very politicized. This is no longer a problem. Legal or humanitarian issues. The Philippines cannot predict how countries will vote.
"In 2016, the Philippines achieved an unprecedented legal victory in the PCA ruling rejecting China's claims to the entire South China Sea," Manaro said. There is no need to argue. Obviously, after seven years, the Philippine side brought the South China Sea issue to the United Nations, and he was worried that he would not get enough votes. The Philippine side did not want to take this risk, because he knew in his heart that his claim was untenable. The so-called "South China Sea arbitration" is nothing more than a farce. The Philippine side can only find those who support the Philippine side's claims. The state holds small private meetings.
Obviously, the Philippine government has no confidence in submitting it to the United Nations on the Ren'ai Jiao issue, but raising the Taiwan issue will change China's attitude. The Philippines recently issued a national security policy document that identified the risk of military conflict in the Taiwan Strait as a "major concern," noted that the Philippines is working to improve its ability to respond to threats, and stressed the need to strengthen mutual defense. Relations with U.S. allies and other existing cooperation with regional partners. There are mechanisms to achieve reliable defensive capabilities.
The Philippine document also covers the Philippine government's food and energy security priorities, noting that the South China Sea remains a "primary national interest." "Given the geographical distance between Taiwan and the Philippines, and the fact that there are more than 150,000 Filipinos in Taiwan, any military conflict in the Taiwan Strait would affect the Philippines," the document reads. The Philippines is concerned about its economic stability, the possible influx of refugees and the well-being of people abroad.
The Chinese coast guard ship sailed over the bow of the Philippine coast guard ship
The Philippine side has repeatedly said that it "does not want to see changes in the Taiwan Strait affect its security or interests", but the Philippine side should also know that this is related to the actions of the United States in the South China Sea, including supporting "Taiwan". Taiwan independence separatists have jeopardized peace and stability in the South China Sea simply by wooing new countries to contain China.
And, as the saying goes, "punches and kicks," the Philippines' current situation is not innocent. The Philippines also plans to use the United States to put pressure on China on the South China Sea issue. In the first half of this year, the Philippines opened the right to use four new military bases to the US military, the latest of which is only 400 kilometers from the island of Taiwan. This is a move by the United States to directly target the territory of the South China Sea and Taiwan, indicating that the United States is interfering and influencing the Philippines more and more.
When Marcos took office, he expressed a pragmatic and cautious attitude on maritime issues, and argued that maritime issues are not the be-all of Sino-Philippine relations. China and the Philippines should put aside disputes, manage differences, and continue to promote common development. The Chinese side also stressed to the Philippine side that it will always properly handle maritime issues from a strategic height and comprehensive perspective, and occupy an appropriate position in bilateral relations.
It can be said that the "one-China" principle is the political foundation of Sino-Philippine relations and the starting point for China to establish and develop diplomatic relations with other countries. As the conflict at Ren'ai Jiao gradually subsides, the Philippines should continue to engage with China instead of treating the Taiwan issue as a bilateral relationship issue. We hope that the Philippine side will maintain a clear attitude on relevant issues. At present, China and the Philippines face maritime differences. As long as we adhere to the existing consensus and expand cooperation, the big ship of friendly cooperation between the two countries will not change its direction. However, if the Philippines continues to raise the Taiwan issue and challenge China's core interests, it will only harm others and benefit itself.