Not long ago, at the 2023 Shanghai Semiconductor Exhibition, a speech by Chen Nanxiang, CEO of Changjiang Storage, caused controversy, saying that the United States currently bans the accessories of the lithography machine, resulting in Yangtze River Storage not even getting parts, and these high-end accessories can not be replaced by domestic products.
And then, his words were even more shocking: "You must not believe that this optical chip has broken through, that nanochip has broken through, in the final analysis, it is all to get scientific research subsidies!" In addition, he also said: "The problem of Yangtze River storage now is not that advanced equipment cannot be bought, but that the parts of the equipment cannot be bought before, which leads to the equipment being broken, and it cannot even be repaired, and it can only be paralyzed there like scrap iron." ”
After these words came out, some people questioned Chen Nanxiang's deliberate remarks of creating a crisis, the purpose of which was to win more scientific research subsidies for Yangtze River Storage, so that the company could make more profits.
But Chen Nanxiang stressed that he only revealed the difficulties and problems facing the current development of the domestic semiconductor industry, and this is not the emperor's new clothes, but the truth of the facts.
Whether what Chen Nanxiang said is true or not, several problems do exist:
First, we don't have a lithography machine to produce chips with smaller processes.
Second, the overall chip industry structure of the mainland is still low-end, and in the high-end field, the chip companies of the entire mainland are not as good as a TSMC on the island of Taiwan.
Third, if the United States blocks China's chip industry from technology to products, it is indeed difficult to cope with our current level.
High-tech industry, there are two decisive elements, one is technology, the other is capital, the more industrial upgrading, the higher the technical difficulty required, and the greater the consumption of capital, this does not mean that we can overcome the spirit of two bombs and one star in a short time.
Although China's current chip manufacturing process has been able to reach the level of 14nm, but on this basis, 7nm, 5nm and even 2nm need to make technological breakthroughs to achieve, this is not to say that the Chinese brain is not as good as foreigners, has the other party itself has a certain amount of technology accumulation there, and we want to equalize or even complete catch-up, first of all, we must have the opportunity to learn.
But right now, the United States is using every means to strangle this opportunity for China to learn.
How important are chips? As Chen Nanxiang said, if there are no chips, some high-precision equipment does not even have replacement parts, and can only be paralyzed there.
We all know the three industrial revolutions, the first by steam engine promotion, the second by electricity promotion, the third time we call the computer revolution, in fact, to put it bluntly, is driven by computing power, and the core of computing power to promote the current is the chip, whether it is CPU or GPU, whether it is big data or cloud computing, everything is indispensable to the blessing of the chip, and the more powerful chip, the impact is scientific research results, is the manufacturing process.
This is not only about whether your and my mobile phones are easy to use, but also about whether a country's industry is upgraded.
The United States currently has two adversaries, Russia is the enemy, because apart from energy exports, Russia can hardly develop any industry that is a potential threat to the United States, and can only engage in guerrilla-style hacking. Therefore, the United States can use war to drag down Russia's economy in one fell swoop and destroy its national foundation.
But why define us as a potential competitor when it comes to China? Because we have matched or surpassed the United States in many industries, and the result is that we can get the market at lower prices in these areas.
But not in the United States, which and even the West are accustomed to maintaining high per capita GDP and welfare in their developed countries with high profits, and if they go back, fundamental social upheaval will occur throughout the West.
But because of China's embedded relationship with the West in the industrial chain, they are afraid of war with China. The purpose of using the chip blockade to sanction China is obvious, not only chips, but China's overall industrial upgrading. This is also the destruction of China's future development.
For us, the situation is equally grim, after the reform and opening up, we relied on the export-oriented strategy to achieve the miracle of perennial double-digit economic growth, but since then, marked by real estate, China's economy has continued to achieve double-digit growth.
But the problem is that this kind of high capital investment oriented to real estate and infrastructure will form a corresponding huge debt, once wealth growth reaches a bottleneck, such as the current housing prices are too high, people can not continue to maintain purchasing power, this high economic growth will stagnate or even regress. In recent years, we have continuously lowered our GDP growth forecasts, which is actually a disguised regression.
Don't say that the current economic growth has entered a period of stability, and the per capita GDP has not yet reached the average level of developed countries, why should it enter a period of stability?
Now we are re-proposing the development of the real economy and concentrating on supporting specialization and innovation, but it does not mean that we can give some policies and approve some loans. Similarly, to overcome the "stuck neck" technology, it does not mean to make some tall terms, approve scientific research funds, and the technology will be overcome. This requires a large number of talents and capital to be invested in one direction for a long time to produce results.
The advantage of the West in the field of chips is also the height that many countries have reached in the field of technology for a long time, and now the West locks us up, and we need to sink our hearts into development.
Similarly, if there is an opportunity, if we can get Western technology and products, if we can greatly shorten the time for our technology accumulation, there is no need to insist that we are omnipotent.
The game between countries is not about developing behind closed doors, but about striving to obtain greater benefits for themselves in the struggle, in which case both Russia and the United States can be transformed between friend and foe.
For countries, there is no shame in having a gap, after all, our technology and capital accumulation is only a few decades, and we should have confidence in the future. But if you see the emperor's new clothes and don't poke them on, this blind confidence in the country and the people is really quite terrifying.