According to the Institute of Seismology of the National Academy of Sciences of Kyrgyzstan, at 02:48 local time on June 22, 2023, an earthquake occurred 50 kilometers northwest of Naryn City, 13 kilometers northeast of Ak-Kuduk village, and 16 kilometers north of Vosmoe Marta village.
Although the impact of this earthquake was not large, it evoked memories of many earthquakes in late 2022 and early 2023. In the run-up to the 7.8 magnitude earthquake that struck Turkey on February 6, 2023, several small earthquakes struck Kyrgyzstan and near the border:
At about 23:00 on December 28, 2022, a 6.0 magnitude earthquake occurred on the border of China and Kyrgyzstan (measured by the China Earthquake Network as a 5.4 magnitude earthquake). There was a strong tremor in Jijšekhu Prefecture and Aksu City in Xinjiang, China.
At about 06:00 on January 27, 2023, a magnitude 5 earthquake occurred in the territory of Lake Issyk-Kul, and Karakul felt a magnitude 5.
At about 8 o'clock on February 23, 2023, a 7.2 magnitude earthquake struck Tajikistan, and a 4-4.5 magnitude earthquake was felt in many places in Osh Osh Oblast, Kyrgyzstan.
Two earthquakes occurred on the morning of February 27, 2023:
The first time was at 03:42, 132 km southeast of the city of Karakul, level 5;
The second time was at 05:58, on the Kyrgyzstan-China border, 130 kilometers southeast of the city of Karakul, with a magnitude of about 5; At the same time, there were earthquakes in Yining City, Aral City, Tumshuk City and other places in Xinjiang, China.
Although Kyrgyzstan is more than 3,000 kilometers away from the location of the Turkish earthquake, experts said that the geological structure environment and tectonic plates in the regions of the two countries are completely different, and there is no commonality, and the 2.6 earthquake in Turkey is not directly related to Kyrgyzstan's many small earthquakes; it has still raised concerns about earthquakes in Kyrgyzstan for a long time, especially in the context of known seismic activity and unknown seismic resistance of buildings.
Kyrgyzstan has not conducted seismic tests for buildings for almost 40 years
After the February 2023 earthquake in Turkey, Kyrgyz Prime Minister A. Zaparov instructed relevant government agencies to strictly supervise the construction of multi-storey buildings in the country, formulate a construction reform plan based on the characteristics of the earthquake in Kyrgyzstan, and demand that it be completed as soon as possible within two to three weeks. This initiative from the Government comes in the immediate context of the discussion in Kyrgyzstan about the poor quality of high-rise buildings. What has been done since then and what has changed?
Demolition of completed houses
Recall the statements of Kyrgyz President Sadr Zaparov and head of the cabinet A. Zaparov after the earthquake in Turkey: In an interview with the Kabar news agency, the president stressed that there is no more room for violations of the law in the field of construction. "Only God knows how the new house in Kyrgyzstan was built for 32 years," he said. If they collapse, it will be a matter of conscience for builders and involved architects. In the Soviet Union, the control was relatively good, and then it went downhill. ”
Prime Minister A. Zaparov presented at the parliamentary session the measures planned by the Government to bring about the orderly development of the construction industry. First of all, special equipment will be purchased to test the strength of concrete and other materials. Secondly, if necessary, the developer will "rework and reinforce the places in the buildings that need to be reinforced, even if these buildings were built 10-15 years ago". The Prime Minister promised: "By the end of the first quarter (of 2023), we will complete these projects, placing the houses that are now under construction under strict control." Thirdly, in his speech to parliamentarians, he stressed that he had instructed the formulation of a reform plan for the construction industry in accordance with the characteristics of the earthquake in Kyrgyzstan.
In addition, the Prime Minister assured that the government would even take measures such as "demolishing completed houses" if the condition of the houses threatened people's safety. He added: "Some construction companies have no experience, but for unknown reasons, they think that construction is easy and simple, and they go for illegal construction. ”
There are regulatory plans in place to adopt strict controls
The prime minister gave two to three weeks to work out the reforms. At present, the deadline has long passed, are there any results? In response to a reporter's question a few days ago, the National Bureau of Building, Construction, Housing and Public Facilities said that the bureau has formulated a national construction industry reform plan. The document includes the gradual digitization of all processes in the sector, the simplification and optimization of the issuance of permits for construction and construction activities, the updating and development of new national action plans and regulations, as well as further studies to expand the number of master plans for settlements in the country.
The Bureau undertook to present more information on the programme at the official launch, in particular the important question of how authors analysed the characteristics of earthquakes in the country.
Now that the plan is clear, will the relevant state agencies control the construction of residential buildings more strictly? The head of a construction company in Bishkek, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that nothing has changed in this regard. "I can only speak for myself, our work has been scrutinized quite rigorously layer by layer, and it can't be stricter," he said. ”
According to another "builder", there has been talk of substandard quality of residential buildings in Kyrgyzstan for a long time. "If we don't build well, why do new high-rise houses sell out at the foundation stage? Soviet-era 'safe' properties you can always buy whenever you want, but more and more people want to become owners of 'new houses' every year. ”
By the way, according to Tarrant Iman Akun, head of the Bishkek department of the Kyrgyz National Construction Committee, the buildings in the Kyrgyz capital can withstand earthquakes of up to magnitude 9. "During construction, earthquakes of magnitude 8 to 9 are considered," he said. ”
Seismic test? There is no answer
Experts warn that if, as the government says, the state decides to seriously bring order to the housing construction industry and strictly control it, it will have to face several difficulties. As the head of the International Association of Earthquake Architecture, Urukbek Begaliev, said, the main difficulty is that Kyrgyzstan has not conducted seismic tests of its buildings for almost 40 years. There were such tests in Soviet times, and then they stopped.
Begaliev said that now the main inspection of buildings is the quality of materials, such as concrete and steel, as well as the work carried out, such as welding. But can the entire multi-storey building withstand the onslaught from underground? There is no answer to this question. One of the reasons for not doing seismic testing is the fear that the building will be damaged during the test, which will negatively affect the image of the real estate company. At present, housing construction in Kyrgyzstan is mostly framed and filled with bricks. No one can guarantee that it will be earthquake-resistant.
This situation is difficult to change, he said, because there is a strong lobby in the field of construction, whose representatives are also present in parliament and government agencies. Lobby groups have blocked government attempts at the legislative level to protect shareholders. Over the past five years, the Cabinet of Ministers has drafted several pieces of legislation that were supposed to address the pressing issue of losses due to improper actions of real estate developers. But none of these bills were passed.
About the seismically active period
President of the National Academy of Sciences of Kyrgyzstan, Kanatok Abdrakhmatov, on the earthquake:
Kyrgyzstan is currently experiencing a period of seismic activity. The period began with a magnitude 8 earthquake in the village of Nula in 2008 that killed 75 people. This period of activity will end in 2026, so we have two to three years of seismic activity. But I would say that after the great earthquake in Nura, there was a series of less obvious earthquakes of magnitude four or five. And I hope this period will end like this as well. Therefore, the possible impact strength should not have serious consequences. According to forecasts, after 2026, we will usher in a period of structural calm.
Unfortunately, seismology has still not advanced to the point where it can predict the time, place, and intensity of future earthquakes. Even in Japan and the United States, where instruments are very close, almost every 10 kilometers, they cannot predict earthquakes. For Kyrgyzstan and Central Asia as a whole, scientists are not equipped with enough technology and instruments, how to say, seismology as a science has made great progress, but there are still great difficulties in making accurate short-term predictions.
Source: Russian Daily, Silk Road New Observation All Media Compiler: Yang Haibo