Sugar substitutes are divided into three categories: functional alcohols, functional oligosaccharides (also known as prebiotics), and dietary fiber. Other sugar substitute companies are basically deeply cultivated in one or two categories, and Bailong Chuangyuan three categories are occupied, the first feeling is the industry leader, especially the name is more domineering, just don't know where it comes from?
After carefully looking at the company's fundamentals, I found that there is really some gap with the leader, after all, the revenue is relatively small in all aspects, and there is only one bluffing name and the so-called rich production line.
We still know this company from the beginning, the company is corn and corn starch as the main raw materials, the production of various sugar substitute products, the price of raw materials has a greater impact on the company, the higher the price of corn, the greater the erosion of the company's profits!
The company's operating income is stable, has been slowly rising, the trend is not bad, the current revenue is about 700 million.
Operating income
Proportion of operating income
The proportion of the company's three sectors of sugar substitute is not too obvious, it is a balanced development of the company, from the perspective of industrial integration, the company does have the opportunity to integrate the industrial chain in the future.
Let's take a look at the company's profits!
Non-net profit is deducted
The company's net profit has risen in a step-like manner, performing very well, and the net profit can be seen at present to be 140 million yuan.
At present, the company has 5 institutions to give profit forecasts, this year can reach more than 200 million, next year can reach 380 million, if really according to the forecast, then the company is a proper growth stock without any problems.
The company's current revenue is only about 500 million, the net profit is about 150 million, the net profit margin is still very high, superimposed the company is in a high prosperity industry, the future has the opportunity to integrate the industrial chain. One of the bad points is that the industry as a whole is not large, the ceiling is not high, the current leader only has a market value of more than 10 billion, and the company's growth space is not very large.
The company currently gives a 20 times valuation is the floor price, 30 times the valuation is reasonable, if it can achieve a net profit of about 400 million in the future and still maintain growth, then there is no problem in giving a 20 times valuation.
So let's calculate the valuation of the company:
1.4*20= 2.8 billion is the company's floor valuation;
1.4*30 = 4.2 billion is a reasonable valuation of the company;
If the forecast profit can be successfully realized in the future:
3.8*20 = 7.8 billion next visible current value, corresponding to the valuation of the forecast profit;
3.8*30 = 10.8 billion (valuation with good growth rate)
At present, the valuation of this year's profit, according to the net profit and growth valuation of 200 million, can be given 30 times, the corresponding company's valuation at 6 billion is reasonable, but the net profit of 200 million has not been realized after all, that is to say, this year's market value of 2.8 billion to 6 billion is reasonable. 2.8 billion is the floor price, 6 billion is the price of a ceiling, and a reasonable valuation is 4.2 billion. Looking ahead to next year, the company can really achieve this year's forecast profit, and next year's valuation of 7.8 billion is reasonable.
Let's take a look at the company's market capitalization performance:
Market cap performance
Since the company went public, the market value has been fluctuating between 3.3 billion and 6 billion, and it has not got rid of the market value period we gave, if you are interested in this target, it is a buying opportunity around 4 billion, but to around 6 billion, there is no need to take it in the short term. If you look farther away, you can see the market value of tens of billions.