"El Niño is magical, its magic is enormous!"
Zhou Bing, chief expert on climate services at the China Meteorological Administration, was already closely following the development and progress of the El Niño event in an interview with The Paper (www.thepaper.cn). El Niño is a climatic phenomenon caused by an abnormal increase in water temperature in the central and eastern equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean. In the context of global warming, extreme abnormal weather and climate events are more intense, longer and more significant. This round of El Niño will continue to cause regional or global climate anomalies.
"This El Niño is certainly not a weak event, and looking at the global dynamics model forecasts, we are on the verge of an El Niño event of moderate intensity or more." Zhou Bing said.
On June 8, local time, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued an El Niño warning, announcing that this climate phenomenon has occurred and is expected to reach moderate to strong levels in autumn and winter.
Earlier, the World Meteorological Organization released an assessment report in May that the unusually persistent "triple La Niña" phenomenon that lasted for three years was over. The report predicts that at least one of the five years from 2023 to 2027 will break the high temperature record set in 2016, with a probability of 98%; The probability that the average temperature in these five years is higher than in the past five years is also 98%.
On June 10, 2023, according to the weather forecast, the temperature in Shanghai soared to 35°C that day. Image of this article Visual China diagram
This year is El Niño's year of development, and its impact on the continent is mainly through the influence of the monsoon system in East Asia, which directly affects the subtropical high in the western Pacific. In the early stage, the high temperature in South China and other places was to some extent a response to the development of El Niño, which strengthened the intensity of the subtropical high in the western Pacific Ocean, causing extreme high temperatures in South China under the control of the subtropical high.
Although no two El Niño events are exactly the same, their impact depends in part on the seasonal course of the year and the combined configuration of multiple systems. However, through comparative analysis of the El Niño index month by month since 1950, Zhou Bing found that a moderate-intensity El Niño event occurred from June 2009 to April 2010, which was very similar to this year's El Niño event in terms of start time and intensity.
The El Niño event from June 2009 to April 2010 brought significant high temperature and heat waves to the mainland, and from late June to July 2009, high temperatures affected 17 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in the mainland. At the same time, eastern Inner Mongolia, western Jilin and western Liaoning suffered from severe meteorological drought. It is worth noting that from the autumn of 2009 to the beginning of 2010, the southwest region experienced the worst drought in autumn, winter and spring since meteorological records began.
In the process of global warming, superimposed with moderate or higher intensity El Niño events, the intensity, type and start time of extreme weather may be greater than we think. Zhou Bing said that traditionally, the impact of El Niño on global climate anomalies was more significant in the following year, but it was more direct to the rise in global temperature. This El Niño broke through the spring barrier, 1-2 months earlier than expected, and the impact on temperature is likely to be most pronounced in 2023. Various forecasts and analyses at home and abroad show that 2023 or 2024 is very likely to create a new global warmest record. According to the latest news released by the World Meteorological Organization in May, global temperatures are likely to reach record levels in the next five years, mainly affected by the accumulation of greenhouse gases and naturally occurring El Niño.
"The world is facing a hotter, drier and more waterlogged future, and it is an indisputable fact that climate change is causing global warming and frequent extreme events, and extreme heat has become a 'new normal'." Zhou Bing said.
On June 10, 2023, Shanghai's maximum temperature will continue to hit the 35°C high temperature line, and visitors will use small fans to block the hot sun on the Bund viewing platform.
The following is the content of the interview:
Record-breaking temperatures have become the "new normal"
The Paper: What is the expected temperature and precipitation on the mainland during the main flood season this year?
Zhou Bing: The latest rolling forecast results of the main flood season of the National Climate Center show that this summer (June to August) the precipitation on the mainland will be two rainy belts in the north and south, and the precipitation in eastern Heilongjiang, southern Zhejiang, Fujian, southern Jiangxi, Guangdong, eastern Guangxi, Hainan, central and western Yunnan is more than 2~5%, and the possibility of extreme heavy precipitation is greater.
The precipitation conditions in various river basins in the mainland are: the precipitation in the Songhua River Basin, Nenjiang River Basin and Pearl River Basin is more than 20% more than that in the same period of the year, and the heavy rainfall process is more than that of the same period of the year. The lower reaches of the Yellow River, the Haihe River Basin, the Liao River Basin, the upper and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the Taihu Lake Basin have more precipitation of 1~20%. The precipitation in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is 2~5% less than that in the same period of the year.
It is expected that this summer, except for the temperature in the central and northern parts of Heilongjiang that is 0.5~1 °C lower than the same period of the year, the temperature in most parts of the country is close to the same period of the year to more than 0.5 °C, of which the southern part of Henan, western Anhui, northwestern Jiangxi, northern Hunan, Hubei, most of Chongqing, eastern Sichuan, southern Shaanxi, western Gansu, most of Xinjiang and other places are 1~2 °C higher, the number of high temperature (daily maximum temperature ≥35 °C) in the above areas is more than the same period of the year, and there may be a staged high temperature heat wave.
The Paper: What is the concept of temperatures in most parts of the country close to the same period of the year to above 0.5°C?
Zhou Bing: 0.5°C higher is a very obvious high. From the perspective of climate change, the global ten-year increase of 0.14°C to 0.15°C, and the average annual increase of 0.014°C to 0.015°C is a warming trend. For the mainland, the ten-year warming of the mainland is 0.26°C, and the annual average warming is 0.026°C. "The temperature in most parts of the country is close to the same period of the year to be above 0.5 °C", whether from the time scale and spatial range, the temperature increase is very large, so it is necessary to be more vigilant against the adverse effects of high temperature, especially to remind some dangerous situations of high temperature prevention, such as high-altitude workers, energy and power security, agriculture, etc.
On June 10, 2023, in Fuyang, Anhui Province, citizens walked on the streets and shielded themselves from the scorching sun with their arms.
The Paper: Can you conclude that the degree of high temperature and heat wave is higher than last year?
Zhou Bing: Although the trend of climate change is warming, the inter-annual variation is very large, and we cannot say that the next year will be hotter than now.
Will this year break last year's high temperature (record)? There is no comparison, for example, last year's high temperature is mainly south, Chongqing and other places created 45 °C high temperature, other places also created 42, 43 °C high temperature, peak, range, duration and other factors constitute a high temperature heat wave, if compared with last year, there is no comparison, but comparable is that this year and last year a big background is different, El Niño after the emergence of the impact on the mainland Yangtze River basin is relatively large.
The Paper: In the past two years, the high temperature of national weather stations has continuously exceeded the same period in history or even historical extremes, how do you view this "new normal"?
Zhou Bing: In the summer of 2003, a heat wave swept the world, especially in Europe, and since June, the temperature in Italy has been 6°C to 10°C higher than the same period of the year, the temperature in Switzerland has hit the highest temperature in 200 years, and the high temperature in France has not been seen in 150 years. Heat waves in Europe have killed more than 30,000 people, including nearly 15,000 in France. Between 1 and 20 August 2003, there were 14,539 heat-related deaths in France, of which 1,313 were heatstroke deaths, accounting for only about 9% of heat-related deaths; There were 3,004 cases of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and 1,365 cases of respiratory diseases, respectively, accounting for more than 30% of the total.
Since then, there have been many serious heat waves around the world, such as the US heat wave in July 2006, the Russian heat wave in July 2010, and the high temperature in Australia in 2019. Large-scale high-temperature heat waves occurred in mainland China in 2013, 2017 and 2022. As a result, the world is facing a hotter, drier and more waterlogged future, and it is an indisputable fact that climate change is causing global warming and frequent extreme events, and extreme heat weather has become a "new normal".
The Paper: Last year, when people experienced a high temperature heat wave, they had the view that "2022 may be the coolest year, and it will be hotter in the future".
Zhou Bing: The "new normal" of summer heat waves does not mean that it will be hotter year after year. When the south of the mainland experienced a high temperature heat wave in 2022, the network spread that "although 2022 is already the hottest year on record, it may also be the coolest year in the next 10 years". This view is clearly wrong, a misreading of global warming trends, and a lack of scientific understanding of the interannual variability of temperature. It is also important to remind the public that there is uncertainty about the outcome of long-term climate change projections, based on scientific evidence.
In fact, as soon as the conclusion that "2022 is the coolest year in the next 10 years" exploded, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences carried out emergency rebuttal of rumors, and posted a note on social platforms at 21:29 on August 22, pointing out that the reference to a Weibo public account was published in Nature Communications in 2020 entitled "Emergent constraints on future projections of the western North Pacific." Subtropical High" does not address temperature predictions for the next 10 years, and does not propose or support the conclusion that this year is the coolest year for the next 10 years.
In the long run, human activities dominated by greenhouse gas emissions are not only the main cause of climate warming, but also greatly increase the probability of extreme heat wave events and heavy precipitation events. Similar high temperatures and scorching heat will occur frequently in the following summers, but not stronger every year, so "alarmist". At present, the impact effect of global greenhouse gases is very strong, and in the context of global warming, high temperature heat wave events will become a "new normal". At the same time, another feature brought about by climate change is also beginning to appear: the characteristics of high temperatures starting early and ending late and lasting longer will become more and more pronounced.
June 9, 2023, Tai'an, Shandong, high temperature weather, parents waiting for candidates outside the examination room.
The return of "flooding in the south and drought in the north"
The Paper: What is the expected impact on the continental climate after the El Niño event?
Zhou Bing: El Niño will directly cause disastrous extreme weather and climate events such as high temperature, drought and heavy rainfall in the tropical Pacific Ocean and its vicinity. During the El Niño development period, precipitation is abnormally low in southeastern Australia, unusually dry in southeastern Africa, and more abnormal in summer precipitation in India and China. During El Niño, torrential rains and floods along the central coast of Chile; Drought in much of the Amazon basin and northeastern Brazil; Precipitation in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and other places has decreased, and forest fire disasters are frequent; Significant weakening of hurricane activity in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Seas; The eastern North Pacific has a stronger low pressure, unusually warm and moist air pouring into western Canada, Alaska and the northernmost tip of the United States, and more thunderstorms in the northern Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern coast of the United States, resulting in more precipitation in the region than usual.
The impact of the summer El Niño on the continent is highly uncertain. According to the statistical analysis of historical data of the National Climate Center, in the summer of El Niño development, the temperature in southern North China, northern Central China, central East China, and eastern Northwest China are prone to high temperatures. Among them, the number of high temperature days in southwest China, central Jiangnan, northeast South China and northern Xinjiang reached more than 30 days.
Since the beginning of this century, the summer El Niño years have been 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2009, among which the temperature in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, Sichuan-Chongqing and the southeast of Northwest China in the summer of 2006 was significantly higher than that in the same period of the year, and severe high temperature and drought occurred in eastern Sichuan and Chongqing. Also in the summer of El Niño, the temperature on the continent in 2004 was widely low, the opposite of 2006. As WMO Secretary-General Talas emphasized in a briefing issued in May this year: "No two El Niño events are the same, and their impact depends in part on the time of year." ”
Based on foreign forecasts, the intensity of this El Niño event can reach above moderate, significantly exceeding the two weak El Niño events in 2018/2019 and 2019/2020, and the impact on the autumn and winter precipitation of the mainland and next summer may be more significant. Some analyses show that the probability of breaking the world's warmest record in 2023 or 2024 is increasing.
The Paper: The El Niño event has a great impact on the Yangtze River Basin in the mainland, what are the specific impacts from the perspective of temperature and precipitation? The 1998 flood in the Yangtze River basin was also set against the backdrop of an El Niño event, right?
Zhou Bing: In the past three years, especially in 2021 and 2022, the precipitation in the south of the mainland has been relatively "drought in the south and flooding in the north", and the emergence of this El Niño event marks the return of the traditional sense of "southern flood and northern drought" of continental precipitation. We should pay close attention not only to the precipitation in the Yangtze River basin, but also to the drought that may be brought about by the event in the northern part of the mainland. For example, during the El Niño event that occurred from June 2009 to April 2010, eastern Inner Mongolia, western Jilin and western Liaoning suffered severe meteorological droughts. It is also worth noting that from the autumn of 2009 to the spring of 2010, the southwest region of the mainland experienced the worst drought in autumn, winter and spring since meteorological records began.
The background of the 1998 Yangtze River basin flood was a super El Niño event, and the current forecast for this El Niño event is an event of moderate or higher intensity, and we will pay close attention to its development dynamics and changes in intensity.
On June 9, 2023, Beijing continued to be in high temperature "scorching" mode, tourists holding parasols in front of the noon gate.
The Paper: Recently, the high temperature and drought in the southwest region of the mainland have been significant, how does climate change affect the monsoon in the southwest of the mainland?
Zhou Bing: From the autumn of 2009 to the spring of 2010, the southwest region experienced the worst drought in autumn, winter and spring since meteorological records began.
This year is expected to develop into El Niño in May-June this year, this year's background is the same as the background of 2009, are an El Niño development year, the current drought in the southwest region has been intermittently since last year, if the rainy season (May-September) in the southwest region can not alleviate the drought, after the autumn and winter, the drought will be more obvious, because the autumn and winter itself is the dry season in Yunnan, the early precipitation is less, and the spring begins to be drought, which will be very bad. This was the case in 2009, when the drought lasted until April of the following year, and in 2010, with the end of El Niño events and the onset of a new rainy season. So it is important to pay close attention to how similar this El Niño event is to the 2009/2010 event.
Strive to build a "high-temperature resilient (adaptable) society"
The Paper: In addition to high temperatures, extreme weather is becoming more and more frequent under the background of climate change, is the forecast and early warning capability of meteorological departments sufficient to provide strong support for urban emergency response?
Zhou Bing: It is difficult to achieve accurate forecasting of extreme weather and climate events, and it is still a worldwide problem, and the time, place and intensity of such events are random.
Relying on scientific and technological progress, the China Meteorological Administration relies on the improvement of basic capabilities such as precise monitoring, accurate forecasting and fine services, strengthens early warning and meteorological disaster risk management, and takes the road of high-quality meteorological development. In the field of early warning, China has gradually formed a "Chinese model" of meteorological early warning that is "government-led, early warning first, departmental linkage and social participation", and has established a disaster prevention and mitigation system that covers all sectors of society horizontally and extends vertically to villages, communities and individuals, giving full play to the role of the first line of defense in meteorological disaster prevention and reduction. In terms of early warning, monitoring is the foundation - China has built the world's largest air-space-ground integrated meteorological observation system, which can realize rapid tracking and accurate positioning of meteorological disasters; Forecasting is the core - China has established a seamless and refined early warning and forecasting business system from minutes to 100 years, which can achieve progressive early warning of 14 major meteorological disasters. Establish a point-to-point early warning response mechanism, and promptly remind relevant local governments to do a good job in prevention and response. Release meteorological warning information to the public, and prepare for disaster prevention and risk avoidance in advance.
The timely issuance of early warning signals can allow people to avoid meteorological disasters and bring a real sense of security and gain. With the continuous improvement of meteorological monitoring, forecasting and early warning capabilities, all kinds of losses due to disasters have been further reduced, and the advance amount has been made for life rescue, and the national grain production has been repeatedly harvested, and economic production has been supported and guaranteed through disaster risk management, and the proportion of economic losses caused by meteorological disasters to GDP has decreased year by year... The benefits and roles of meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation have been continuously highlighted, and have been highly recognized by party committees and governments at all levels, and the satisfaction of national public meteorological services reached 92.8 points in 2021, reaching a new high. The progressive early warning and forecasting service mode of extreme weather was explored, and the accurate targeted release of early warning information was carried out to strengthen point-to-point follow-up response.
In addition, in order to strengthen the linkage between meteorological early warning and emergency response, and effectively improve the prevention and response capabilities of meteorological disasters such as heavy rain, typhoons, and strong convection, the Ministry of Emergency Management and the China Meteorological Administration recently jointly issued the "Opinions on Strengthening the Linkage of Meteorological Early Warning and Emergency Response", which clearly states that it is necessary to strengthen the horizontal exchange of meteorological early warning and emergency response information, strengthen the linkage mechanism between meteorological early warning and emergency response, and require strengthening the meteorological early warning and emergency response information society release mechanism.
The Paper: How can cities and the public prevent the adverse effects of high temperatures in advance?
Zhou Bing: High temperature and heat wave events have caused many adverse effects on local industrial and agricultural production, water resources, ecological environment, energy supply, human health and people's lives, and persistent extreme high temperatures can easily induce compound meteorological disasters, forcing the outbreak of drought to become faster and faster, and promoting the transformation from slow drought to sudden drought on a global scale.
Coping with high temperatures is part of responding to climate change, and in the face of the new normal situation of extreme high temperatures, it is necessary to make scientific plans and full preparations, and focus on building a "high-temperature resilient (adaptive) society" in the construction of a "climate adaptation (resilient) society". Through multifaceted construction, society, including people, buildings, infrastructure and open spaces, is prepared to withstand the effects of extreme heat from climate change and minimize the negative impacts. On the one hand, by continuously reducing greenhouse gas emissions and reducing high temperatures, the climate impact is minimized; On the other hand, we must also build a high-temperature adaptive society, with early warning, assessment, preparation of our resources, better arrangements in advance, so that it is scientific, reasonable and orderly, and long-term construction.
For the public, try to avoid or reduce outdoor activities during the day, especially do not go out to exercise and work under the scorching sun at 10-16; When working outdoors, you should wear a straw hat, wear light-colored clothes, prepare drinking water and heat medicine, if you feel dizzy and uncomfortable, you should immediately stop working and go to a cool place to rest; The temperature of the air conditioner should be controlled at 26~28 °C, and the temperature difference between indoor and outdoor should not exceed 8 °C; Pay attention to dietary hygiene, avoid irritability and anger in case of accidents, eat small and frequent meals, and avoid oversatiation; Pay attention to sun protection when going out to improve your awareness and ability to prevent stroke.