"Turn-based is well done, what to do next time?"
Honkai: Star Dome Railway has ushered in the 1.1 update, and it has been more than a month since its launch, and how to evaluate it has always been a problem. Before it went live, some people said that "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" is a "mud car creation (two-dimensional) track", but is this the case? Whose money did "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" make, and what impact did it have on Genshin and Mihayou? Behind this game, Mihayou's exclusive second-game dilemma seems to have been noticed by few people.
Selling well depends on the card pool, and the download decline is difficult to stop
Since its appearance at Apple's conference in October 2022, the promotion of "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" has been in full swing. When it is close to launching, player Xiaoash can brush 4 or 5 advertisements a day on WeChat public account and B station. He also remembers that during the open beta, "QQ, Weibo, Douyin, B station, and almost all social media opening ads were occupied by this game." ”
In the end, "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" also won several best-selling list results. According to AppMagic platform data, as of May 26, the IAP revenue of the game (mobile version only) reached $132 million, excluding third-party Android store data, and Genshin's IAP revenue in the first month of launch was $172 million.
On the data of Qimai, it can also be seen that on May 17 / June 7, the UP card pool of the characters "Jing Yuan" and "Silver Wolf" was launched, making "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" the top of the iOS best-selling list/game best-selling list.
But from the download index, that is, the iOS game free list, the "Jingyuan" card pool did not bring a recovery, and the "Silver Wolf" card pool brought free list recovery is not obvious, but just returned to within the 30th.
The free-to-play list trend of "Genshin" has been very stable in the past year, and has remained in the range of 5-20. Before the launch of "Honkai: Star Dome Railway", "Genshin" ranked as low as 22 on the iOS game download list, and the best-selling list will also recover steadily with the launch of the new version.
Compared with the two, the free list of "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" fluctuates more, and the recovery brought by the two card pool updates is very limited, and the best-selling list results are indeed amazing, but in fact, it relies on the character up once a half a month, that is, selling the character to maintain, in the case of player return is not obvious, it is more necessary to use the character pool to attract big R to pay. In the paid core group of "Genshin", there are more small and medium-sized R's for large and small monthly cards.
Moreover, the popularity of various character chef videos in the early days of "Genshin" is high, and the video of the character chef power of "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" has been launched so far is much smaller than that of "Genshin", for example, in the creator incentive plan of station B, the number of views and discussions of the Genshin 3.7 version on June 5 far exceeded that of "Honkai: Star Dome Railway", and this is still in the case of a large number of second creators invited by "Honkai: Star Dome Railway".
That is to say, compared to Genshin, Honkai: Star Dome Railway players have a weaker bond with the characters, and rely more on the strength of the characters and the story to maintain.
The main line update is slow, and the long grass period is too long
For PVE games such as "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" and "Genshin", which both use characters as selling points and regularly update the plot, the interpretation of the plot and the amount of content are the focus of players and characters to establish a bond and convert into payment.
Judging from player feedback and plot records, the main content of version 1.0 of "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" is 12-14 hours, the side story/peer missions are 8-10 hours, and the game duration is about 30 hours. The 1.1 version will not update the main line, which means that the main line will be stopped for about 80 days. In contrast, the success of "Genshin" is due to the interpretation of the main line "The Unreturned Star" in version 1.1. The number of content updates in "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" has also caused many players to question "this production capacity is not like Mihayou".
Players are also consuming content faster than expected. Turn-based enthusiast Otaka said, "During the third test of "Honkai: Star Dome Railway", I concentrated on playing for 8-10 days to get through the main line, and then clocked in every day, and after playing for more than 20 days, it really entered the long grass period. But in the Genshin player group he was in, many people reached the Arilo map on the first day and were "card leveled". There are also many players who reach the equilibrium level 30 in 3-5 days.
By this point, he said, there was basically nothing to play. According to his observations, the discussion in the early days of the launch of "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" did drown out "Genshin", but everyone basically discussed "nothing to play" since May 1, and almost half of the group was left with only the "brush brush" game experience after the first week.
On Station B, videos about "What to do during the long grass period of Honkai: Star Dome Railway" appeared in early May. Otaku also said, "30h of game time, 0.5 hours of play a day, 20 days is enough to consume it." Some players described the feelings of the main line of "Honkai: Star Dome Railway": "Just got familiar with the game mechanics, felt the shock of Star Iron Kokolia music, and then went to Xianzhou, was deceived by a two-faced person, and the plot was gone... This sense of gap is actually the most uncomfortable in the long grass period. ”
After the 1.1 version was launched on June 7, players successively found that the "Silver Wolf" companion mission process was about 1 hour, and the new event "Star Hunting Game" could be completed in half an hour if it was fast. Otaka said, "The game was updated at noon, and the game content and store were empty in the afternoon." Another new event will not be held until June 9th, and the remaining 3 peer missions will start on June 28.
Just a few hours after the June 7 version update, players said: "The grass has started to grow again."
If the long grass period of "Genshin" can be spent by the exploration of the big world, "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" also has the exploration and decryption of the box court world and the meat pigeon gameplay of the simulated universe, but the content experience of the long grass period in the actual experience is indeed not as full as provided by "Genshin".
From "siphoning" opponents, to "purifying" oneself
Before the launch of "Honkai: Star Dome Railway", there was a concern not only among players, but also in the industry that this game would bring a devastating blow to other second games. It is said that the explosive competitors also actively explored countermeasures before going online, but the actual flow shows that whether it is a turn-based second game, or a multi-year old second game, or a cutting-edge side game, it has not been "siphoned" by "Honkai: Star Dome Railway", but this game "purified" the income and players of "Genshin".
The gameplay of "Onmyoji", which is also semi-real-time turn-based, is a direct competitor, and the game's revenue has not declined due to the launch of "Honkai: Star Dome Railway", but has reached a new high in the past three months with new linkage and character best-selling lists, and the free-to-play list has ushered in a new high in nearly a year.
Another "FGO" that is often used as a comparison, although the best-selling list has declined, it is difficult to say that it is directly related to the launch of "Honkai: Star Dome Railway".
In other games such as "Azur Route", "Naruto", "Forever Lost" and "Ark of Tomorrow", "Naruto" best-selling list has risen, "Azur Route" rushed to a high in early June because of the 6th anniversary best-selling list, "Ark of Tomorrow" because of the 4th anniversary revenue increased significantly, and even once surpassed "Honkai: Star Dome Railway", and the recent revenue has declined, but it is not directly related to the card pool time of "Honkai: Star Dome Railway". The fluctuations of "Forever Lost" are in the normal range.
In comparison, only the revenue of "Genshin" has declined significantly, appearing 3 days after April 26 / 2 days after the launch of the "Jingyuan" up pool on May 17, during which time its overall list and game list have fallen to 30th and 18th, the worst results in the past year. On June 7, the day "Silver Wolf" was launched, "Genshin" also stagnated on the best-selling list.
In the overseas market, the two-end flow comparison of the two games, "Genshin" on April 29/April 30, May 11/May 12, May 18/19, the iOS best-selling list at three time points fell out of 50 places, the lowest point in nearly a year, and the best-selling list of Googleplay channels also declined. And these time points are just a few days after the launch of "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" and the launch of "Jingyuan" card pool.
According to Gameage, a Japanese game research agency, from May 1 to May 7, 31.2% of "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" players were playing "Genshin" at the same time, and the same 33.6% of "Genshin" players were playing "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" at the same time, and "Genshin" overseas DAUs also continued to decline after "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" was launched.
The DAU and domestic/overseas income of "Genshin" have declined after the launch of "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" and the update of the character pool, and it is the largest in nearly a year, which can only show that "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" has sucked "Genshin".
Such "blood sucking" is not only in terms of income. On social forums, it is not uncommon to go from "I haven't returned to Genshin in days" to "simply uninstall both". These players first stopped Genshin because of the lighter gameplay of Honkai: Star Dome Railway automatic combat and sub-gameplay.
An UP owner who specializes in the second-hand accounts of "Genshin" and "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" also said that the second-hand account of "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" shrank by half in June compared with when it was launched, and the price of the second-hand account of "Genshin" also fell by 60% from last year's peak. He believes that "there may be 70% of Genshin players who become Honkai: Star Dome Railway players, entering the long grass period after a week of main story, and the players who get out of the pit are far greater than the players who enter the pit, causing the people who sell the number to roll each other." ”
When Genshin players can't go back to Genshin, what do they play after encountering the long grass period of "Honkai: Star Dome Railway"? It is a more worrying issue.
It should also be added that "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" is not just "blood-sucking" "Genshin", and the best-selling performance of iOS games in "Honkai 3" fell to the lowest point in nearly a year during the same period.
Of course, at the same time that "Genshin" was launched, there was also a phenomenon that "Honkai 3" had slipped for nearly a month. But losing part of the turnover of "Honkai 3" in exchange for "Genshin" with an annual turnover of tens of billions of yuan is certainly worth it. At present, "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" has not shown a trend of significantly exceeding the revenue of "Genshin" while affecting the flow of "Genshin" and "Honkai 3".
Mihayou's exclusive second tour anxiety
From "siphon competitors" to "purify yourself", this is a big turn. The reasons behind this are nothing more than two points:
1. The fan base is not compatible with non-two-dimensional players
Two-dimensional players are much sticky to game labels than other types of games, especially Mihayou. Tencent, NetEase or other big manufacturers, as long as they are not pure two-dimensional blood, usually their players are in a state of playing while spraying, and fans' loyalty to the Mihayou brand is beyond the reach of these manufacturers, but sometimes the excessive enthusiasm of players may become an obstacle for non-two-dimensional players who want to try Mihayou games.
2. The category is not far enough
The main reason is that the popular game categories are not divided enough, Mihayou's 3 best-selling games not only have similar core selling points, but even the plots of "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" and "Genshin" and "Honkai 3" are Japanese royal themes, and some people say that the differences between the characters are not strong enough, if it is not for the core players of several game roles to swap, there is no sense of violation. These similarities also make Mihayou's products easier to "self-purify".
In contrast, Tencent NetEase has a major R payment + heavy PVP operation + pension leisure product portfolio, Tencent can have "Glory of Kings" and "Peace Elite" at the same time instead of losing each other, and "Onmyoji" players will not necessarily play "The Coast of the Land".
Of course, the reason behind this is that Mihayou has achieved the ultimate in the PVE game that sells characters of the stable update of the drama, even if the horizontal/vertical strategy of the gameplay is different from other excellent turn-based games, but in terms of map size, character face accuracy, character standing drawing and skill performance animation, main animation performance, and the laying of content such as trash can literature and text messages, Mihayou has demonstrated its industrialization intensity, playing a good "bottom" for each game, and bringing players around the world "unconsciously can play for a long time." This is the benefit of its lightweight design + saturation promotion to substitute the game into the pan-quadratic and non-quadratic markets, but it also amplifies the problem after cracks in its content update ability.
When other second tours are still anxious, how to return the cost of the industry when the average line is raised to 100 million yuan? How to fill the gap between industrialization and Mihayou? Mihayou's anxiety is already what to do after the player "turns left hand to right hand" and loses? What category/play will this industrialization be used next?
These two anxieties go far beyond the scope of two-dimensional games. Behind it is actually the problem of the size of the plate of the core two-dimensional player.
A producer believes: "Even if Mihayou and other two-dimensional manufacturers have a lot of players, the plates of domestic core two-dimensional elements themselves are limited." When the version number is opened and the new game is in the open beta, players always have a day of flow. "Of course, from "Genshin" to "Honkai: Star Dome Railway", there is no doubt that the differentiation of this gameplay has absorbed some plates outside of "Genshin", or pan-two-dimensional players, and also stabilized Mihayou's advantage over other opponents in the second dimension, from a defensive point of view, "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" is undoubtedly successful.
However, from the open world to the turn-based, the expectation pursued by the differentiation of gameplay must not be in the scene where Genshin players and revenue are absorbed by Honkai: Star Dome Railway.
Competitors are also launching a general attack on the core two-dimensional market, "Genshin" is still three months away from the third anniversary, although there is no direct opponent in the open world category and the amount of main game content for the time being, but "Ming Tide" with main game potential also showed a very exquisite boss battle in the last test, and the very attentive open world exploration experience cannot be completely ignored.
On the sub-tour track, a series of second tours that hit the sub-tour market, such as "Back to the Future: 1999", "White Night Aurora", "Dust White Forbidden Zone", "White Thorn Corridor" and "Kala Bhichu", have been launched or are ready to go. And "Honkai: Star Dome Railway", which is almost the same as "Genshin" in terms of cultivation and payment, is more like a side game from the perspective of the amount of main content and the long grass period. Then if the above games are cheaper in pricing, and at the same time have distinct characteristics or differences in art, plot, and gameplay, they may attract players who "don't know what to play after the loss of "Genshin" to "Honkai: Star Dome Railway".
So what can Mihayou do next? If you continue to do the Japanese king plot selling character drama PVE, will it still "purify" "Honkai: Star Dome Railway"? If you don't do PVE, only the heavy PVP gameplay with its own balance remains, or the potential user's larger casual simulation and other categories.
PVP categories such as shooting, after Cai Haoyu announced that the "PJSH" project was on hold. The SLG product suspected of being invested by Mihayou also ended without a problem after obtaining the version number. Whether Mihayou can make/cast PVP games still needs to be questioned, and players are used to "Mihayou games do not have PVP", and they are likely to be unwilling to pay.
There are too many mature products of casual simulation games, which is also a category that needs to be refined and socialized, which is a big gap for Mihayou's games, and the domestic and foreign markets of such games, and the dividend/information difference between console PC and mobile game players is also very small.
It should be noted that the hidden danger of slow update of the main line is not only shown by "Honkai: Star Dome Railway", but also the amount of main story content in the recent versions of "Genshin" is not as good as before. How should Mihayou's industrial capacity be used? If you can't support the update of multiple games at the same time, how can industrialization balance commercialization with commercialization achievements? These seem to be topics that need to be explored in the long run.
Standing on the left shoulder and right arm of "Genshin" and "Honkai 3", "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" has won the top spot in the global best-selling list again and again by relying on the character pool UP/saturated purchase/a large number of personnel and R&D investment, but also reflects the exclusive second-game dilemma of Mihayou's main line being broken/long grass period lengthening/self-"purification". As another mobile game 3A work in the post-"Genshin" period, at least for now, "Honkai: Star Dome Railway" has not brought Mihayou one step closer to the "virtual world in which 1 billion people are immersed".
The author of this article: Cannon Pigeon, edited by > of < Reliable Editorial Department