Businesses in the northeast, especially in tourist scenic areas, said: We have survived the epidemic, but we may not survive this year.
The tourism industry in Northeast China is greatly affected by the off-peak season in winter and summer, while the peak number of tourists in scenic spots dominated by natural landscapes is even greater. Northeast Tourism Scenic Area has cold winter and long duration, the tourist flow is significantly reduced compared with summer, and the number of tourists has obvious seasonal characteristics, which can not be changed by manpower.
Taking Changbaishan as an example, Changbaishan tourism practitioners divided into four levels: off-season (May 4 to May 31, October 7 to November 15), shoulder season (June 1 to June 30, September 1 to September 27), peak season (July 1 to July 20, August 21 to August 31), and wangzhongwang (July 21 to August 20, September 28 to October 6) according to the growth law of the number of tourists over the years. Intuitively speaking, the number of people in scenic spots in the off-season is calculated in hundreds, in the weekseason in thousands, and in peak season, the peak difference in the off-peak season is so obvious!
After the epidemic was lifted at the end of last year, during the Spring Festival, some scenic spots were difficult to find, the number of tourists was full, and the food and accommodation showed a tight business situation. Many believe that after the pandemic, tourism will usher in recovery and retaliatory consumption. For this reason, many people have invested their wives in the catering industry and tourism service industry.
I would say that it is ridiculous and naïve to expect a profitable year's worth of costs through their retaliatory spending with a limited number of people recovering during the peak tourist season.
In 2023, the physical stores of the catering industry and tourism service industry will grow exponentially, and the competition will be extremely cruel
Baihe Town, Erdao, Changbai Mountain, where the author is located, covers an area of 52.42 square kilometers and has a population of 63,475 (including 44,494 permanent residents and 18,981 temporary residents).
So far in January, barbecue restaurants alone have increased by more than 80, while other restaurants have increased by more than 360, and this is just an approximation of the catering industry. It can be said that everything that can be grilled on a fire, stir-fried, and cooked rice is all dry in the catering industry.
The catering industry is inherently competitive, winning by the taste of dishes and the quality of service. Some of the old shops with the resident population as the main source of customers are struggling, not to mention newcomers who are not familiar with the industry? Many tourists will do a good job before coming, they will go to the Internet celebrity store that others have been to or the old store that friends have visited, and will never go to a freshman store, why do you think you can do it?
The tourism photography industry in the tourism service format also faces this situation. Compared with the physical travel photography stores during the Spring Festival at the beginning of the year, there were only 3 in Erdaobaihe Town during the Spring Festival, but now it has grown to 18, which is more than 5 times more.
Erdaobaihe Town is almost full of travel and auction shops, the same clothing, the same style, ridiculously high shop rental fees, it is really difficult to imagine what the operation will look like! During the tourist season, the itinerary of foreign tourists has almost been determined before coming, and they are also in a hurry, almost after seeing Changbai Mountain, who will stop and use the limited time to take a photo and put on makeup?
The same is true of competition in the homestay industry. The number of township city guesthouses has increased by 600 on the basis of the original base, more than double the number in 2019 before the epidemic. It can be said that all houses that are empty have been converted into homestays.
Wouldn't it be absurd to expect a 18% to 20% increase in the number of retaliatory consumers to fill the growth base of the B&B that was originally larger than the number of stays, when the number of guesthouses was not satisfied with the occupancy during the peak season in previous years.
The cost of catering and tourism services is much higher than before the epidemic
Or take the Baihe Town of Changbai Mountain, where the author is located, as an example, the shops in the more remote areas that used to be in the corner are now rented out. Near the town's central road and near the park, rental prices have doubled.
In addition, because many people see so-called "business opportunities", they predict retaliatory consumption in the tourism industry after the epidemic. Many people use all the decoration of vacant houses for homestays, resulting in a significant increase in the cost of labor, consumables and so on, whether it is catering shop decoration or homestay decoration.
In addition, there are twice as many restaurants to open restaurants, and there are limited staff such as waiters, which makes it difficult to find talents. In the case of scrambling employees, ordinary service employees pay as much as 4,500 yuan a month, and some shops have not been able to hire waiters.
Store rental costs, decoration costs, labor costs are increasing, and the permanent population and other consumer groups are limited, the growth of tourists is not large, the competition in the same industry is extremely fierce, dividing customer sources has become inevitable, try to ask in this case, how to make a profit?
People's actual spending power has decreased significantly compared to before the pandemic
In a word, the common people have no money in their pockets, this is the most fundamental problem. Especially under the influence of the epidemic, the economic situation is sluggish, income is decreasing, consumption is decreasing, employment difficulties, debt pressure and other problems make people feel anxious and helpless, and lack of money has become the most realistic problem faced by many people.
Up to now, one-half of 2023 has passed, and people have found that enterprises are short of money, ordinary people are short of money, local finances are short of money, and after many years of development, we are all short of money. Under such circumstances, prices continue to rise, which will directly lead to a decline in real purchasing power. The lives of ordinary people are already stretched thin and miserable, and poetry and distant places can only be extravagant hopes, and expecting them to engage in revenge consumption can only be fantasy.
Investing in entrepreneurship is never easy, entrepreneurship is risky, investment needs to be cautious.
Although many people think that starting a business is a shortcut to getting rich quick, in reality entrepreneurs face many challenges and obstacles, including financial problems, market competition, management difficulties, and interpersonal problems. Especially for recent college graduates, employment pressure is high, it is difficult to find a job, and they don't want to use physical strength, they all want to be bosses. However, the catering industry and tourism service industry can never be taken for granted, and it is too optimistic to expect speculative profits with revenge consumption in tourism recovery.
Most people blindly engage in catering and tourism services, betting all on revenge consumption, which is actually speculation. Be careful not to steal the chicken and make the already stretched life worse.
Many businesses who have been engaged in the catering industry in the northeast for many years said: this year's business is more difficult than any year, they are rushing to dry restaurants, labor, decoration, store rental costs have increased exponentially, how to continue? We've survived the pandemic, but we won't necessarily survive this year.