Proactively address the impact of AI on employment

Author: CHEN Fengxian (Associate Researcher, China Telecommunications Research Institute)

In recent years, a new round of scientific and technological revolution with artificial intelligence, 5G and other digital technologies as the core has injected new vitality into the mainland's economic development, and has also had a profound impact on the employment scale, employment structure and employment mode. In particular, the rapid rise of generative artificial intelligence represented by ChatGPT has once again aroused widespread global attention to the new generation of artificial intelligence, and has also triggered extensive discussions on the issue of "machine substitution". It is necessary for us to take precautions, strengthen research and judgment, scientifically understand the profound impact of artificial intelligence on employment, and take the initiative to respond to new problems and challenges.

The impact of artificial intelligence on employment is a "double-edged sword"

Artificial intelligence is the driving force for promoting the leapfrog development of science and technology, industrial optimization and upgrading, and the overall leap of productivity. As an emerging disruptive technology, artificial intelligence has greatly stimulated the vitality of innovation and entrepreneurship, greatly increased employment opportunities, and helped to achieve fuller and higher-quality employment. However, the crowding out effect of artificial intelligence on employment has also been a lingering concern in recent years.

As a new technology emerging in a new round of technological revolution, artificial intelligence is reflecting the creative effect of technological innovation on labor employment from multiple levels. First, new technologies have transformed the employment structure and brought new employment opportunities. While reducing the number of employees in medical care, elderly care, and security, smart medical care, and security has significantly increased the number of jobs in technology research and development, application and maintenance of artificial intelligence algorithm engineers, data scientists, and machine learning engineers. Second, new technologies have changed the form of employment, resulting in a large number of flexible employment and hidden employment. The large-scale new format has spawned a large number of new service occupations such as takeaway delivery workers, ride-hailing drivers, online anchors, and small shop planners, effectively alleviating structural unemployment. Third, the new technology has greatly reduced the "information asymmetry" and effectively improved the matching efficiency of the labor market.

While artificial intelligence has a creative effect on employment, it also brings a crowding out effect. However, it should be noted that this "extrusion" is structural and presents "polarization" characteristics. According to mature labor market data such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and Europe, it squeezes out programmatic jobs, but increases the demand for non-programmed jobs. A 2021 study by Boston Consulting Group in the United States shows that for every 1‰ increase in the proportion of artificial intelligence to workers, 0.18%-0.34% of jobs will be reduced accordingly. There are concerns that as technology moves towards general and strong AI, its crowding out effect on employment may intensify.

It is worth noting that the impact of AI on employment shocks is undergoing structural changes. After the launch of ChatGPT, Open AI released a report analyzing the potential impact of GPT models and related technologies on the US labor market, and the results showed that about 80% of the work tasks of the US labor force will be affected, among which mental workers such as translators, writers, journalists, mathematicians, financial workers, and blockchain engineers will be the most affected, while manual workers such as food production and forestry conservation will be the least affected. Goldman Sachs released a report that lawyers and administrators are the most affected, and less physically demanding occupations such as construction and maintenance or outdoor work.

The mainland has institutional advantages in coping with the employment impact of artificial intelligence

Explore the impact of artificial intelligence on employment, detached from the specific national conditions and institutional background. In the context of Chinese-style modernization, the impact of artificial intelligence on employment reflects a distinct new "Chinese-style" characteristic.

In capitalist countries, there has always been an inherent contradiction between private ownership of the means of production and the socialization of production. The profit-seeking nature of capital determines that in the process of using technology to replace labor, there must be a contradiction between the organization of individual enterprises and the anarchy brought about by all enterprises in the whole society competing to use technology to replace labor. This contradiction determines that although the national level tries to improve the employment of workers by improving labor relations and increasing social security, due to the inherent defects of the system itself, the state's power to influence the economy is quite limited, and it is impossible to truly improve the employment quality and life well-being of workers. In socialist countries, the basic economic system with public ownership as the main body and the common development of multiple ownership systems breaks the contradiction between the organization of individual enterprises and the disorder of the whole society under private ownership, so that there is an overall and society-wide combination relationship between the whole worker and the means of production, making it possible to achieve full employment of the labor force.

The mainland can give full play to the superiority of the socialist system and promote fuller and higher-quality employment through the development of state-owned economy and macro-control policies. On the one hand, in addition to giving full play to the role of the market, there is a strong national governance capacity as the support, through policy innovation and institutional innovation, actively guide the development of new business formats, take the initiative to provide more employment services, absorb and digest the structural unemployment caused by artificial intelligence. On the other hand, we can give full play to the supporting role of the state-owned economy, take the benefits of the state-owned economy as a guarantee, expand the coverage of social security as much as possible, maximize the masses to enjoy the development dividend, and reduce the gap between the rich and the poor.

Socialist countries fundamentally have the motivation and willingness to better achieve full and high-quality employment. At present, the mainland is in a new era and new journey of "comprehensively promoting the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation with Chinese-style modernization". Firmly grasping the opportunity of a new round of scientific and technological revolution with artificial intelligence, 5G and other digital technologies as the core to accelerate development is an inevitable move to promote Chinese-style modernization. However, we should also realize that the modernization process of the mainland is different from the traditional modernization of Western countries. Chinese-style modernization is a modernization with a huge population scale and a modernization for the common prosperity of all the people, and adhering to the supremacy of the people is the basic stance, viewpoint, and method that runs through it. Employment is the biggest livelihood of the people, in dealing with the relationship between new technologies such as artificial intelligence and labor employment, we must not only fully absorb the fruits of technological progress to promote productivity improvement, but also always put the promotion of employment in the priority position of economic and social development.

Promote the common prosperity of artificial intelligence and full employment

Theory and practice have proved that technological progress and full employment are not incompatible, but can actually complement each other. At present and in the coming stage, we should give full play to the superiority of the socialist system with Chinese characteristics, pay attention to the crowding out effect of artificial intelligence on employment, and fully stimulate the employment creation ability of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, and actively respond to the profound impact of artificial intelligence on employment.

The first is to relax the access conditions for new formats, tap the potential of new employment, and expand the scale of employment accommodated by new formats. Through deregulation, stimulate the vitality of enterprise innovation and entrepreneurship, attract more market players to enter new business formats, and create more new employment opportunities. At the same time, it is also necessary to guide the digital transformation of enterprises, expand the scale of enterprise production, and improve the employment absorption capacity of enterprises. Increase investment in digital infrastructure in underdeveloped regions, try to bridge the "digital divide" between regions, and provide strong infrastructure support for better exerting the employment creation effect of artificial intelligence.

The second is to strengthen artificial intelligence training, enhance workers' ability to adapt to the digital environment, and broaden the opportunities for workers to obtain jobs in the new business environment. Under the background of the current development of general artificial intelligence large models, some traditional positions are at risk of being replaced, and cultivating and improving artificial intelligence-related skills has become an urgent need for practitioners. This requires the government to play a greater institutional guarantee function, increase career transformation and training, and ensure that the workforce can adapt to changes in the job market in the era of artificial intelligence, so as to achieve sustainable and inclusive employment growth. At the same time, strengthen policy support, encourage human resources institutions to provide standardized and orderly artificial intelligence training for new employment, and give certain subsidy support for training activities with a large total scale and a training duration of more than half a year.

The third is to strengthen employment services, create a relaxed employment environment, and create good conditions for workers to change jobs. Smooth employment information channels, break down barriers to the flow of employed people, and allow the labor force to choose their own employment when they can obtain timely information. Strengthen the construction of the rule of law, strictly regulate the operation mechanism of the labor market, and avoid behaviors that endanger workers in the process of changing occupations. Strengthen the publicity and interpretation of the main application fields of artificial intelligence, guide ordinary workers to fully and accurately understand the potential impact of artificial intelligence, and enhance workers' trust in artificial intelligence. Actively promote the development of social welfare organizations, give play to the role of social organizations in many fields such as workers' career planning, skills training, and job matching, and help workers achieve high-quality employment.

(This article is a phased achievement of the professional capability project of China Telecom Research Institute "Research on Several Key Issues in the Large-scale Development of Production and Numbers" (T-2023-16))

Source: Guangming Network - Academic Channel